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Dismantled by 1-10 San Francisco this week where we came in 9-2 after a close 34-33 loss last week. Offense was pretty putrid.
Is it the coach or is it the players? SO HELP ME GOD I DO NOT KNOW.
This team might be a couple pieces further away from bowl contention than I thought, and the obvious flaw is the QB. Could probably use some better run blockers too.
The defense has been pretty solid, and A.J. Hassett, despite not notching up a lot of sacks, has been a beast as a pass rusher. Unfortunately, none of my RDEs has stood out and Howe has looked a bit ordinary for the second year in a row. I suspect that PRS just might not translate to too much pass rush. We're still pretty much set on defense for years to come.
Duckworth exploded for 140+ yards against the Mechanics, and we held on to win 24-21 after having an early 21-3 lead. McBriar got his Sanchez on again, completing less than 50% of his passes, but he made the ones that mattered and didn't get intercepted.
We're on pace to finish about where I expected recordwise, but my passing game still leaves a lot to be desired - especially regarding turnovers.
A.J. Hassett is a MONNNNNSTER. Dustin Chorak is dead.
McBriar continues to channel his inner Mark Sanchez. I liked him more earlier in the season when he was channeling his inner Tony Romo.
The last four games have featured 3 sub 50% completion percentages, 6 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, a few fumbles and one 50% completion percentage day. In 3 of those games he has thrown for less than 200 yards. I think he's just hitting the low end of his spectrum of play right now, and I'm hoping it picks up.
I must have tinkered with the offense in ways I don't really remember, because I think I've pretty much set it back to where it was when he had success last year. At least I'm HOPING that.
We're probably going to be in the market for a QB soon. McBriar just isn't a long term solution - just the best one we could get on short notice. 7th round surprise bump Walt Johnson could be the future in a year or two, provided he didn't just vol bump, as long as I can keep exceptional affinity on him. The position leader who grants him affinity is an older one, I believe.
A few losses might come back to haunt us if we don't win in week 17 against North Liberty. We need to win or have Yuma and Pearl Harbor lose to secure our second first round bye during my tenure.
We were pummeled by the currently 2-13 San Francisco Bayhawks and the 4-11 Chicago Reapers, and we lost in the final moments to both Columbus and Lake County.
With the league's softest schedule, Dakota should have been a shoe in for a bye. The team needs work and isn't really championship caliber yet, IMO, but they've still put together a solid season. I didn't think I had a chance in 2022 and the Totems lit up a lot of good teams in the postseason. There's probably more talent on this offense than the 2022 team had, but the offensive line and QB aren't as good.
The defense is really coming along though. We've recreated the strong cornerback tandem the old Totems had with Camilleri and Dudgeon with Hutchins and Troglia, but this secondary still pales in comparison to that incredibly strong one, due to weaknesses at safety. A.J. Hassett is already the best DE I've ever had and he's entering his prime. The defense should be the strong point of this team for years.
It's going to come down to whether the Mark Sanchez McBriar shows up in the playoffs, or the guy who had the very solid season last year in a 7-9 effort.
With a couple more parts added next year this team should be really good. As of now it's just above average. Spending just two years in the doldrums before returning to the playoffs is a quicker turnaround than I expected, so whatever happens I will consider this year a success.
Dakota's season is over after a 27-20 loss to Camden in the Wild Card round. We died in the 4th quarter after two costly turnovers, one a fumble by turnover machine McBriar, who otherwise had an excellent game.
QB - McBriar was not the guy he was last year. This year he turned over the ball left and right. He also made his share of big plays, but down the stretch this season he put together a bunch of terrible games. He just isn't a long term solution for this team, and I hope to have someone better when this team is hitting maturity. Even if I can't get someone else, I can get by with McBriar, and just hope he has another season like he did his first year here.
7th round draft pick Walt Johnson bumped in TC, but I suspect volatility. We'll see what he can do next year in TC. He could conceivably start in a couple years if he's really creeping upwards.
RB - Duckworth is our first 1000 yard rusher since my first season in Dakota (2018) when hall of famer Sherdrick Allen ran for nearly 1400 yards. It was worth trading up for him, and he should be the cornerstone of our offense for the next 7 years or so at least. The old guard of J.B. Trotter and Rob Wickes (who were both on our bowl team in 2022) are aging and have a couple years left at most. We went right from our long term FB Ron Dabbs to D.J. Moss, our 2nd round pick, who should put up a Dabbs-like career for Dakota.
WR - The Pat Donaghy we have is the Pat Donaghy we're stuck with. This is his ceiling: some amazing games and mostly games where he is invisible. Artie Lovejoy (the first 1,000 yard receiver I've had in this league), on the other hand, seems like a real find in the 2nd round. He led us in receiving this year and I suspect he will in the future. Maybe if he sucks some pressure off of Donaghy we'll see a better performance? Who knows!
Not much to say about our TEs, they're just there to hold down the position. Britt Peters is our position leader and he's getting old, I hope he sticks around for a while though.
OL - This unit is going to need some revamping. They're all old or average. Lincoln Lewis may retire, Chorak suffered a horrific hernia injury, and J.T. Sandage is declining and will probably be done in 2-3 seasons. Martin Rice will probably fill in one of our guard spots for years to come. He's the best run blocker we have for Duckworth.
DL - Outside of A.J. Hassett who is a total monster rushing the passer, no one has really stepped up and stood out at RDE, but I think those guys will start showing something when the cohesion starts to tighten up next season. Jerome Howe doesn't seem to be much of a pass rusher, but with his rating he'll be here for a while anyway. Cedric Caldwell inexplicably lead the team in sacks, eclipsing his career total in one season.
LB - Montgomery will be our starting MLB until we can't afford to franchise him anymore. Rufus Mason overperforms and will probably remain in our lineup. Lorenzo Ferguson is taking a long time to develop, spent less time on the field this season due to turf toe, and was probably just a vol bump last TC. Might look here in the draft.
DB - Hutchins and Troglia will be our cornerbacks for the next 8 years, hopefully. FS Dunn will probably finally hang it up this offseason, and we'll probably have to fill in some spots there through FA or the draft, since Jorge May and Corey Maiher aren't exactly shining stars - they're more like bench depth. Lamar Rivera will continue to start at safety, and is my favorite 7th round pick for an extra Utah player ever.
P/K - We're set here with Hoffman and Marcum. Marcum erased any doubts I had about him with a nice season and he seems to be a big creeper.
Now, for the next FA period, where I will outbid someone for a good Tight End!
1(30) - Jeremy Register - C - 41/60 -> 48/62 I really liked this guy so I traded up into the 1st to get him. Hopefully he will be a ferocious run blocker and part of a revamped line that is more focused on run blocking to help Duckworth, our new offensive centerpiece. I felt so good about him that I drafted him even though I drafted a center last year who bumped big in TC, Fernando Domenici. Not a huge bump, but he'll be a solid successor to J.T. Sandage in a year or two.
2(29) - Lawrence Selmon - K - 77/86 -> 78/84 I finally reached for one of those sick kickers, because he had a ridiculous sole score and I value accuracy in kickers. He has one low combine which correlates to KO distance. I passed on the CB Lukins here, which is kind of a position of need for me, so hopefully this guy is as advertised. Slight drop, but he still should be very good... although not necessarily kicker in the 2nd round good.
3(28) - J.J. Browning - S - 24/60 -> 27/52 This guy had a red dash score so I took the plunge. Looks like he may be a dropper, though. Was going to trade out of this pick initially but I decided I couldn't pass on a guy with a red dash score at this draft position. Splat. Might not even make the team.
5(26) - Louie Heinlein - WR - 22/42 -> 34/52 Had some decent combine scores for a receiver this low. I drafted a WR who slightly bumped last year but didn't have room for him on the roster. If that happens again, at least I only wasted a 5th round pick this season! I also had a couple good UFA WRs that bumped who are all now on the Bees, a reversal of the usual situation. Did not expect this. I assume it's a volatility bump but it's still a very pleasant surprise for a receiver this late in the draft.
7(28) - Nicky Stevens - QB - 3/27 -> 9/36 This guy had 14 bench, which is nice to see this late in the draft, but with ratings like this he's going to have to have a nice bump to make the team. Was hoping to get a receiver here that someone else took, I think his name was MacKenzie. DERP. I just realized when looking at change tracker that this guy bumped NINE he didn't drop ONE. Now I have to re-export.
Undrafted Free Agent Surprises: S. Norton, T 11/34 -> 13/41, L. Schroeder LB 18/43 -> 21/43
Your center is already rated higher than my 1st round pick last year (who was going to ride the bench for a year, regardless). I need to get a mentor. So stupid of me.
Also, 2.29 for a kicker like him is a steal. You're set for a decade+.
Your center is already rated higher than my 1st round pick last year (who was going to ride the bench for a year, regardless). I need to get a mentor. So stupid of me.
Also, 2.29 for a kicker like him is a steal. You're set for a decade+.
That's what I was hoping for! The one low combine made me worry a little, but I figured with such an absurdly high sole score I had to nab him there or lose him later.
We started 2027 with a bevy injuries, most of which were suffered in the final preseason game, which I mistakenly believed was preseason game 3. WHOOPS.
Most of them are around the 3 game variety, with two exceptions:
A.J. Hassett, our best and most important defensive player. 8 week high ankle sprain.
Bernie Jones: A slot receiver who has produced pretty well and is important to our scheme.
The little utilized but EXCEPTIONALLY AFFINITIED Kyle Ackerman will be taking on a full time role in our base defense until Hassett is back. In place of Bernie Jones in the slot, overpaid WR T. Barnhill will finally get meaningful playing time.
Starting lineup (if we were healthy)
QB 1 J. McBriar 2 W. McDonald 3 Walt Johnson 4 Nicky Stevens
McBriar has the job until he starts throwing a terrible amount of interceptions. McDonald, who is starting the season with a hyperextended elbow, could take over the job. Walt Johnson has promise and Nicky Stevens went +9 potential in camp so he sticks as a 4th QB.
RB 1 W. Duckworth 2. J. Trotter 3. Rob Wickes 4. A. Rodstrom
Duckworth is our new bell cow, and he has two solid veteran backups who are nearing the end of their "prime." Wickes Vol boomed in camp but he still has zero speed to outside.
FB DJ Moss
Don't know if I'll ever get a second round pick's worth out of Moss since he's a FB, but if anyone can get it from a FB I will from him.
WR 1. P. Donaghy 2. A. Lovejoy 3. B. Jones 4. T. Barnhill 5. L. Heinlein 6. T. Barnikow
The starters were locks, and we're surprisingly deep here, IMO. L. Heinlein vol boomed in camp, a T. Barnikow sticks around due to his kick return ability, cohesion benefits on the rare times he plays WR, and his MILD AFFINITY. We'll see what Barnhill can do in the slot in the first 7 weeks which Jones will miss with injury.
TE 1. R. Bradley 2. R Westbrook 3. B. Peters
Westbrook is the new addition, and he can bring the run block for Duckworth. Peters is petering out (see what I did thar?) but he's our position group leader so he's welcome to stay even if his legs fall off.
C 1. J. Sandage 2. J. Register 3. F. Domenici
3 quality centers, but Sandage is getting old. Probably his last year in a Dakota uniform.
G 1. D. Chorak 2. M. Rice 3. J. Doston 4. C. Frieder
Frieder got a lot of playing time last year, but a negative volatility hit this year will find his ass on the bench behind a youngun we've been grooming. Chorak missed half of last year and will miss the first couple weeks this year, but he'll be back from his hernia to make me regret drafting him in no time.
T 1. S. Burton 2. C. Monroe 3. D. Shields 4. S. Norton
Two new starters at T, replacing Lincoln Lewis (retirement) and Billy Wilkins (vol hit + cut.) S. Burton is the big name here, acquired in trade from Anchorage to give Duckworth some more run blocking. Monroe is an overpaid vet who benefited from our ridiculous cap space. Norton is a developmental UFA find.
Special Teams: Super creeping punter B. Marcum returns, while rookie kicking (but not kickoff) master L. Selmon replaces the reliable Ike Hoffman.
I guess those rankings are a little misleading since all these guys will be getting playing time. As a matter of fact, Ackerman will see a lot of action due to Hassett's injury.
DT 1. J. Howe 2. R. Patton 3. C. Caldwell
Caldwell had a career year last season with 8 sacks, but I have no idea how he got them, so he'll rotate in off the bench. J. Howe doesn't put up stats, but with his affinity and rating he'll be locked in at his position.
OLB 1. L. Martinez 2. L. Welch 3. P. Janis
Thin group here, but MLB L. Ferguson plays all my OLB positions.
MLB 1. R. Montgomery 2. L. Ferguson 3. T. Luongo
Solid, but not spectacular. Someday I'll revamp my LB group. Luongo sticks with his ST and affinity.
CB 1. C. Hutchins 2. L. Troglia 3. J. Raffray 4. O. Bridges 5. R. Kolberg
Added Raffray through trade to solidify depth here. Hutchins and Troglia should start for me forever. R. Kolberg was one of two UFAs who made my final roster.
S. 1. L. Rivera 2. C. Maiher 3. G. Harless 4. J. May
Maiher vol boomed to become a solid starter and Harless was brought in for leadership, but he can play in a pinch. May was on the bubble but made the team.
Hey, good to see Lamar Rivera atop the safety depth chart there for you. He probably looked like crap when you traded for him, but has crept pretty nicely.
Hey, good to see Lamar Rivera atop the safety depth chart there for you. He probably looked like crap when you traded for him, but has crept pretty nicely.
Yep, but he was a diamond in the rough! It's a good thing I traded for him too or I'd have been playing some real crapola at safety the past few years.
Just past the 1/4 mark of the season, we're 4-1 and in first place in our division. McBriar has kept the turnovers under control, Duckworth is splattering the opposition with the newcomers on our offensive line blowing open holes for him to run through, and our pass rush has survived life without A.J. Hassett (who will soon be back.) We're getting him back soon and we're already getting some somewhat important role players back from injury, such as Bernie Jones. Our little injury run from the last preseason game is finally going to stop being a problem.
Corey Maiher, the recipient of a VSOL in camp, has been tearing it up in the secondary. His PD% is something like 94%. Leslie Troglia started out slow, but he's really picked it up the last couple of games. His PD% is up to around 84% and he has 3 interceptions in the last couple games, including a couple clutch ones against North Liberty this week.
The defense is still mediocre in yards allowed. I think maybe I'm losing my touch with defensive gameplanning! Hopefully things pick up when AJ Hassett returns in a week or two. The addition of Cole Motz from Utah should be a big boon for my D, as I usually skimp on linebackers. Motz is a bona fide starter and he also gets exceptional affinity from my position leader.
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