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Regular Rando Ranking readers may notice that the scores for this week's rankings are substantially lower than in previous weeks. There is a simple reason for this, I screwed up. Way back when I posted the first Rando Rankings, I screwed up, and I never caught it until now.
While going back over the formula I posted a couple of weeks ago that was supposed to explain how the scoring for the Rando Rankings worked, I was immediately struck by how, when added together, none of the numbers I had provided in that post even remotely resembled those team's final scores. I double checked the formula in the post, and the page in the spreadsheet I used to come up with all of those numbers, and everything checked out. So I went back and checked the rest of spreadsheet I had been using to generate the Rando Ranking scores and sure enough, I was pulling values out of not one, but two incorrect columns and had been doing so since week 7.
Fortunately the error was affecting all of the teams more or less evenly, their scores were all inflated, and there were very few actual changes in the order of the rankings. As an example, last week North Liberty and Utah would have switched places, as would have Motor City and Punxsutawney, and Columbus would have moved up 4 spots, but no other teams moved at all (apart from the 4 teams Columbus jumped over). Previous weeks showed similar lack of changes (most noticeable was Morgantown losing the #1 spot after their 3 point victory over winless Brooklyn rather than the next week when they lost to the Gaels).
I still can't decide if its good or bad thing that I could mess something up that badly and still come up with almost the exact same results, but either way here are this week's new and improved rankings.
1. Memphis (9-1)
Score: 1.112 Last Week: 1 In Game: 6
The Admirals had the week off last week, which make it rather difficult to come up with things to say about them this week. Memphis' next three opponents are a combined 24-7 and if the Admirals can come out of those games with three wins there shouldn't be much room left for questions about who the #1 team is. Should they stumble, however, the Top 10 could get very interesting.
2. Yuma (8-2)
Score: 1.088 Last Week: 2 In Game: 2
The Ace's 13 point victory over Las Vegas last week wasn't enough to move Yuma into the #1 spot over the idle Admirals, but it was enough to cement their hold on the top spot in the NC West. The Ace's get Waco at home next week, then Columbus next as they have to wait and watch #3 Utah take on #1 Memphis before they get their shot at the Admirals in week fourteen.
3. Utah (9-1)
Score: 1.078 Last Week: 4 In Game: 3
Utah finished off Los Alamos last week without too much difficulty, and remains one of only two teams who are still undefeated in their own division (the other being Memphis). Up next for the Bees, they host the South Maryland Jaguars as a warm up before #1 ranked Memphis comes to town.
4. Gainesville (8-2)
Score: 0.937 Last Week: 5 In Game: 13
As expected Gaels put together another solid victory against 2-8 Charlotte. Gainesville also moved into the lead in their division with the win, but only moved up one spot in the rankings. In order to rise any further, the Gael will have to hope that one or more of the teams above them falls, and that none of the teams below them score any impressive victories over foes with winning records (as Gainesville's current remaining schedule doesn't feature any of those)
5. Denver (7-3)
Score: 0.923 Last Week: 7 In Game: 4
North Liberty and Morgantown's losses last week allow Denver to leapfrog over them and into the top five, their highest ranking of the year. As a reward, the Grizzlies get a chance to put and end to 2-8 Brooklyn's current winning streak.
6. Morgantown (8-2)
Score: 0.849 Last Week: 6 In Game: 1
One week after losing thier first game of the season to Gainesville, the Maniacs follow it up with another division loss, this time to Columbus. Despite this recent skid, Morgantown holds onto their #6 spot this week, largely a result of two of the three teams ranked below them as well as one of the three teams ranked above them also losing.
7. New Orleans (6-4)
Score: 0.845 Last Week: 10 In Game: 12
One of two teams who stepped into the Top 10 this week following a 20 point victory over a cellar dwelling division foe. So far this season the Stingrays have lost their first two games of the season against two opponents who now have a combined record of 15-5, then won three in a row against three teams who are now 13-17. New Orleans' followed that up by losing two more to .500 or better teams (14-6 combined) and won their last three against teams that are a combined 9-21. Is there a pattern there? Will it continue? Well, New Orleans' next two opponents are a combined 12-4.
8. San Francisco (6-4)
Score: 0.783 Last Week: 11 In Game: 8
The Bayhawks ended their three game slide with a win over the hapless Defenders and ,with North Liberty, Las Vegas and Saint Paul's losses, climbed back up the rankings as a result. But San Francisco's Hawaii vacation was just a one week reprieve in what has been the toughest schedule any team has faced so far this year, and up next for the 'hawks are the #1 ranked Admirals, in Memphis.
9. North Liberty (7-3)
Score: 0.748 Last Week: 3 In Game: 7
One week after coming up with what should have been a season defining, three touchdown victory over division rival St. Paul, North Liberty fell to 3-7 Chicago. Fortunately for the Enforcers, the Bandits lost as well (to 4-6 Dakota), so their lead in the race for the NC North division crown is secure, but a loss this week in Portland could drop North Liberty right out of the Top 10.
10. Portland (6-4)
Score: 0.741 Last Week: 15 In Game: 9
Portland's victory over Anchorage last week not only secured their spot at the top of their division, it also propelled them into the Top 10 for the first time this season. Both of these gains, however, may be sort lived as Portland faces North Liberty, New Orleans and Saint Paul in the next three weeks.
And the rest:
11. Las Vegas (-3)
12. Columbus (+14)
13. St. Paul (-4)
14. Motor City (+3)
15. Port City (-2)
16. Boston (+0)
17. Anchorage(-5)
18. Washington (+2)
19. Dakota (+5)
20. Los Alamos (-1)
21. Chicago (+7)
22. Lake County (+0)
23. Punxsutawney (-5)
24. Camden (-1)
25. Kalispel (-11)
26. Brooklyn (+5)
27. Phoenix (-6)
28. Pearl Harbor (-3)
29. Waco (+0)
30. Charlotte (+2)
31. S. Maryland (-1)
32. Ohio Valley (-5)
While going back over the formula I posted a couple of weeks ago that was supposed to explain how the scoring for the Rando Rankings worked, I was immediately struck by how, when added together, none of the numbers I had provided in that post even remotely resembled those team's final scores. I double checked the formula in the post, and the page in the spreadsheet I used to come up with all of those numbers, and everything checked out. So I went back and checked the rest of spreadsheet I had been using to generate the Rando Ranking scores and sure enough, I was pulling values out of not one, but two incorrect columns and had been doing so since week 7.
Fortunately the error was affecting all of the teams more or less evenly, their scores were all inflated, and there were very few actual changes in the order of the rankings. As an example, last week North Liberty and Utah would have switched places, as would have Motor City and Punxsutawney, and Columbus would have moved up 4 spots, but no other teams moved at all (apart from the 4 teams Columbus jumped over). Previous weeks showed similar lack of changes (most noticeable was Morgantown losing the #1 spot after their 3 point victory over winless Brooklyn rather than the next week when they lost to the Gaels).
I still can't decide if its good or bad thing that I could mess something up that badly and still come up with almost the exact same results, but either way here are this week's new and improved rankings.
Week 12
1. Memphis (9-1)
Score: 1.112 Last Week: 1 In Game: 6
The Admirals had the week off last week, which make it rather difficult to come up with things to say about them this week. Memphis' next three opponents are a combined 24-7 and if the Admirals can come out of those games with three wins there shouldn't be much room left for questions about who the #1 team is. Should they stumble, however, the Top 10 could get very interesting.
2. Yuma (8-2)
Score: 1.088 Last Week: 2 In Game: 2
The Ace's 13 point victory over Las Vegas last week wasn't enough to move Yuma into the #1 spot over the idle Admirals, but it was enough to cement their hold on the top spot in the NC West. The Ace's get Waco at home next week, then Columbus next as they have to wait and watch #3 Utah take on #1 Memphis before they get their shot at the Admirals in week fourteen.
3. Utah (9-1)
Score: 1.078 Last Week: 4 In Game: 3
Utah finished off Los Alamos last week without too much difficulty, and remains one of only two teams who are still undefeated in their own division (the other being Memphis). Up next for the Bees, they host the South Maryland Jaguars as a warm up before #1 ranked Memphis comes to town.
4. Gainesville (8-2)
Score: 0.937 Last Week: 5 In Game: 13
As expected Gaels put together another solid victory against 2-8 Charlotte. Gainesville also moved into the lead in their division with the win, but only moved up one spot in the rankings. In order to rise any further, the Gael will have to hope that one or more of the teams above them falls, and that none of the teams below them score any impressive victories over foes with winning records (as Gainesville's current remaining schedule doesn't feature any of those)
5. Denver (7-3)
Score: 0.923 Last Week: 7 In Game: 4
North Liberty and Morgantown's losses last week allow Denver to leapfrog over them and into the top five, their highest ranking of the year. As a reward, the Grizzlies get a chance to put and end to 2-8 Brooklyn's current winning streak.
6. Morgantown (8-2)
Score: 0.849 Last Week: 6 In Game: 1
One week after losing thier first game of the season to Gainesville, the Maniacs follow it up with another division loss, this time to Columbus. Despite this recent skid, Morgantown holds onto their #6 spot this week, largely a result of two of the three teams ranked below them as well as one of the three teams ranked above them also losing.
7. New Orleans (6-4)
Score: 0.845 Last Week: 10 In Game: 12
One of two teams who stepped into the Top 10 this week following a 20 point victory over a cellar dwelling division foe. So far this season the Stingrays have lost their first two games of the season against two opponents who now have a combined record of 15-5, then won three in a row against three teams who are now 13-17. New Orleans' followed that up by losing two more to .500 or better teams (14-6 combined) and won their last three against teams that are a combined 9-21. Is there a pattern there? Will it continue? Well, New Orleans' next two opponents are a combined 12-4.
8. San Francisco (6-4)
Score: 0.783 Last Week: 11 In Game: 8
The Bayhawks ended their three game slide with a win over the hapless Defenders and ,with North Liberty, Las Vegas and Saint Paul's losses, climbed back up the rankings as a result. But San Francisco's Hawaii vacation was just a one week reprieve in what has been the toughest schedule any team has faced so far this year, and up next for the 'hawks are the #1 ranked Admirals, in Memphis.
9. North Liberty (7-3)
Score: 0.748 Last Week: 3 In Game: 7
One week after coming up with what should have been a season defining, three touchdown victory over division rival St. Paul, North Liberty fell to 3-7 Chicago. Fortunately for the Enforcers, the Bandits lost as well (to 4-6 Dakota), so their lead in the race for the NC North division crown is secure, but a loss this week in Portland could drop North Liberty right out of the Top 10.
10. Portland (6-4)
Score: 0.741 Last Week: 15 In Game: 9
Portland's victory over Anchorage last week not only secured their spot at the top of their division, it also propelled them into the Top 10 for the first time this season. Both of these gains, however, may be sort lived as Portland faces North Liberty, New Orleans and Saint Paul in the next three weeks.
And the rest:
11. Las Vegas (-3)
12. Columbus (+14)
13. St. Paul (-4)
14. Motor City (+3)
15. Port City (-2)
16. Boston (+0)
17. Anchorage(-5)
18. Washington (+2)
19. Dakota (+5)
20. Los Alamos (-1)
21. Chicago (+7)
22. Lake County (+0)
23. Punxsutawney (-5)
24. Camden (-1)
25. Kalispel (-11)
26. Brooklyn (+5)
27. Phoenix (-6)
28. Pearl Harbor (-3)
29. Waco (+0)
30. Charlotte (+2)
31. S. Maryland (-1)
32. Ohio Valley (-5)
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