OSFL 2009 Draft Discussion

[Pat]

Bars are the LEAST important factor when assessing rookies

Wait.....what?!

[Guest]

Wait.....what?!

Bars are the LEAST important factor when assessing rookies.

[Pat]

Bars are the LEAST important factor when assessing rookies.

I thought they were the most important....

[Guest]

1. Combine Performance
2. Interview Result (if not "hard to read"
3. Bureau Rating
4. Pre-training camp Bars


To be fair, there's some disagreement among the more expert players. Some would say that bars should be #3 on the list, rather than #4. ;) When combines were initially introduced (in FOF2K4 beta testing), there were NO bars for rookies until after training camp. Bars were only added at the request of the FOF2K4 beta testers as they were having a hard time early on getting the hang of combine drafting. Now, after having more experience, those beta testers all understand why there were no bars in there at first--they weren't needed. All the information we really needed could be found in the combine scores and bureau ratings. My take is that the interviews were added in FOF2K7 to offset the increased scout error. But with that increased scout error, you have to realize that bars became less reliable than ever for draftees.

Bars are useful for giving you a GENERAL idea of what your guy's skill set is likely to be. In other words, if a receiver looks like this:




we know that it's very likely that his best skills will be on special teams and avoiding drops, and his worst skills will be big-play receiving and third-down catching. But beyond that, I can tell you right now that ALL of those bars will end up quite a bit lower than they are now. He will not have, as his bars suggest, somewhere in the 65-80 range in avoiding drops. It'll be quite a bit lower than that, as will everything else.

[Sully]

No wonder my drafts, outside of the first two rounds, have sucked.

[Guest]

And those bars tend to make a lot of post draft FA's richer than they deserve. Its very rare that a guy with good bars who is left over after the draft will be anywhere near as good as he is shown to be.

Thats my thought on it anyway-

[Guest]

And those bars tend to make a lot of post draft FA's richer than they deserve. Its very rare that a guy with good bars who is left over after the draft will be anywhere near as good as he is shown to be.

Thats my thought on it anyway-

I must admit to getting a kick out of the annual FA2 feeding frenzy over the 15/55 guys that are left over. They're not left over because 32 humans screwed up. They're left over because they suck.

[Guest]

As good a place as any I suppose.

MOCK DRAFT TIME!

Disclaimer1: All the of the picks contained within this mock draft were made before I interviewed any of these players, so there are no "spoilers" here as to who is overrated, underrated, or whatever.

Disclaimer2: Most of the picks here were made without my paying any particular attention to who anyone else was signing via free agency, so most of my assessments of team's needs are probably way off.

Round One

1. Dakota: QB Roy Parish

Parish looks like one of those once in a lifetime sort of players that only seems to come along every two or three years. That he plays the game's most valuable position makes him all the more enticing. The Totems get a “savior” quarterback, and Arizona native Warren Poland gets the hell out of North Dakota. Everyone wins.

Alternative Pick: Trade, and someone else takes Parish

2. North Liberty: OT Eric Poliska

North Liberty has made known their desire to trade out of this pick, if the price is right. So what is the price for a monster left tackle who could anchor your offensive line for a decade to come? We'll only find out if someone makes an offer North Liberty can't refuse. Otherwise, Poliska will be heading to Iowa to take Lorenzo Buckley's place. If that happens, chances are he won't earn himself the nickname “My Bad”.

Alternative Pick: Trade, and someone else takes Poliska

3. Chicago: RB Dean Boshier

Chicago traded into this spot, knowing that the two most coveted players in the draft would almost certainly be gone. So what were they looking for? Boshier is as good a guess as any. The Reaper's running back duo of Mims and Vedros, didn't exactly keep opposing defensive coordinators up at night, but don't be too surprised if Chicago reaches down and nabs ultimate workout warrior Julio Durham here.

Alternative Pick: LB Julio Durham

4. Punxsutawney: DT Tommy Becker

The Phil's biggest need is quarterback, but with Parish long gone this draft doesn't have another QB worthy of a top 5 pick. After all, players are what they are, not what you need them to be. Becker may be dumb as a post but he looks like a run stuffing beast who can fill the gaping hole in the middle of the Punxutawney defense.

Alternative Pick: RB Daniel Wilken

5. Ohio Valley: DE Keith Minning

Drafting for needs isn't always a good idea, but sometimes a team just has so many needs it's a necessity. With departure of left tackle Deon Aviles, Ohio Valley has the perfect opening for Quinn Robbins, the second best tackle in the draft. But Robbins plays right tackle, and might not transition well to covering the quarterback's blind side. Instead they go with a top defensive end, Keith Minning.

Alternative Pick: OT Quinn Robbins

6. Phoenix: RB Daniel Wilkens

When you draft someone this high you want a player that can make an impact, and the biggest impact rookie available at this spot would have to be Wilkens, who has to be right on Dean Boshier's heels as the best running back in the draft. Should the Riders choose to address their defense with this pick, top corners England and Westbrook are still available, as is all around stud defensive back Winfred Norris.

Alternative Pick: CB Dusty England

7. S. Maryland: WR Shane Wilkerson

The Jags have several directions they can go with this pick, defensive ends Jorge Carlson and Joseph Mallow are both still on the board, as is offensive tackle Quinn Robbins, who could probably step in and start at either of South Maryland's tackle spots, but in the end the take Wilkerson, the best receiver in the the draft and another target for developing passer Gabe Mathews.

Alternative Pick: OT Quinn Robbins

8. Los Alamos: OT Quinn Robbins

Los Alamos' biggest need is wide receiver, and the top receiver just went to South Maryland. The Monsters also have a host of holes to fill on the defensive side of the ball, but Los Alamos is already looking ahead to next year and they take the second best offensive lineman in the draft to be Roosevelt Houston's eventual replacement.

Alternative Pick: WR Renaldo Rodriguez

9. Pearl Harbor: CB Dusty England

It's always nice when the best player at an important position like cornerback lands in your lap at pick nine. The Defenders just have to figure out just who that “best” player is. Rodney Westbrook had a almost as good a combine as England and is a more developed player, but England looks to have more potential overall.

Alternative Pick: CB Rodney Westbrook

10. New Orleans: FS Winfred Norris

New Orleans is looking for secondary help this off season, and they find it in Norris. The Rice product's combine numbers are the best for any defensive back, and at 6'0” and 203lbs Norris is the right size to make the switch from safety to corner in the pros. If the Stingrays do decide to pass on Norris, Rodney Westbrook is still there.

Alternative Pick: CB Rodney Westbrook

11. Portland: LB Julio Durham

Teams usually don't get to excited about the prospect of taking a middle linebacker early in the first round of the draft. But then again teams don't usually have a freak like Julio Durham sitting there just begging to be chosen. Durham had the best combine of any player at any position in this years draft. The rookie out of Marshall does have a lot to learn about playing linebacker on the next level. Luckily for Portland, Durham also had the highest Solecismic score of any player in the draft.

Alternative Pick: QB Louis Sanderson

12. Los Vegas: LB Joel Wild

At just 227 lbs, Air Force's Joel Wild would probably be projected by most teams as a safety in the OSFL. But his quick 40 times and pass rush skills have to be giving Los Vegas other ideas. He looks like the perfect fit for the weak side rush linebacker in their 3-4 defense. Another option here might be a quarterback, Louis Sanderson looks to have the most potential of all those not named Roy Parrish, but he is definitely a long term project.

Alternative Pick: QB Louis Sanderson

13. Charlotte: CB Rodney Westbrook

Westbrook is likely the second best corner in the draft and should be able to step in and start in a very thin Cougar's secondary. Should Charlotte choose to pass on Westbrook offensive tackle Sherman Hall is available. He didn't attend the combines, but still looks like he'd be better than any of the eight tackles the Cougars currently have under contract.

Alternative Pick: OT Sherman Hall

14. Kalispel: CB Nicky Cortez

This is a toss up pick between CB Nicky Cortez and defensive ends Joseph Mallow and Jorge Carlson. Cortez would fill a big need at corner, but Carlson had the best combine of any defensive end with Mallow not far behind.. Quarterback is once again looks to be an possibility here, but none of the quarterbacks on the board at this pick would likely have as much impact as Cortez.

Alternative Pick: DE Jorge Carlson

15. Motor City: DT George Armstrong

If Cortez or Westbrook are still on the board here, the Mechanics would love to have either. But they just went in the last two picks, and the remaining trio of corners, Coles, McQuilken and Tubbs, all fall just short the defensive tackle named for Lieutenant Colonel Custer in terms of “start now and make a difference” ability.

Alternative Pick: CB Carl Tubbs.

16. Brooklyn: WR Renaldo Rodriguez

After Shane Wilkerson, Rodriguez is the best wide receiver in the draft, and should step in and help the Brooklyn passing game right away. For a more long term option, Louis Sanderson could be drafted to develop behind mentor Claude McIntyre. But are the Hitmen willing to pull the trigger on a guy that might end up being the next Jamie Scoggins?

Alternative Pick: QB Louis Sanderson

17. Waco: DE Jorge Carlson

Waco could go with either Carlson, or DE Joseph Mallow here. Either one could step in and start for the Warhawks. In fact, both of them probably could, but Waco's only allowed to pick one. In the end they go with Carlson, who isn't as developed as Mallow, but should make the switch to left end where he'll work as a run stuffer for years to come.

Alternative Pick: DE Joseph Mallow

18. Gainesville: CB Ricky McQuilken

The Gaels need secondary help, and cornerbacks Carl Tubbs, Ricky McQuilken and Rich Coles are all available. Middle linebacker Ken Vargas is also on the board with this pick but having passed on the combine is something of an unknown. In the McQ's the man for Gainesville.

Alternative Pick: LB Ken Vargas

19. Washington: DE Joseph Mallow

Washington's biggest need may be quarterback, but the defensive line has to be right behind. Joseph Mallow and Lincoln Boone are both still available at defensive end, while Donvoan Kovel and Mike Washington are on the board at defensive tackle. Mallow gets the nod here, based mostly on his combine scores.

Alternative Pick: DT Donovan Kovel

20. Boston: RB John Chart

After RB Vince Shapiro retired Boston traded for Phillip Lincoln, but Vince left some mighty big shoes to fill and Lincoln is a 9 year vet, coming of injury shortened, disappointing season with only one year left on his contract. John Chart may or may not be the future at running back for the Irish, but at the very least he will provide them with a bit of insurance.

Alternative Pick: CB Carl Tubbs

21. Denver: CB Carl Tubbs

Denver signed CB Walt Everett this off season, but he is not a long term solution at left corner. Besides, when you have to play defending champs Utah, and “Lucky” Von Lochtefeld twice a year, you can use all the secondary help you can get.

Alternative Pick: DE Lincoln Boone

22. Los Alamos: DT Donovan Kovel

With their second pick in the first round the Monsters continue to try and improve their team up front. This time looking to the defensive line and nabbing defensive tackle Donovan Kovel. Their greatest area of need is still wide receiver, and the next best wideout on the board here is a possibility.

Alternative Pick: WR Leland Knapp

23. Pearl Harbor: WR Leland Knapp

The Defenders are looking help on the defensive line and in the secondary, but so where a number of teams that picked before them. Fortunately for Pearl Harbor, wide receiver Leland Knapp should be able to step in and start over former forth round pick Neal Atkins and provide some help to their passing attack.

Alternative Pick: CB Rich Coles

24. San Francisco: RB Earl Goldsberry

The Bayhawks signed Lorenzo Buckley to help protect former number one over all pick Rico Whalen's backside, and an improved running game in the form of N.C. State's Earl Goldsberry should further help with young Whalen's development. Otherwise San Francisco could grab one of the remaining defensive ends, most likely Lincoln Boone.

Alternative Pick: DE Lincoln Boone

25. Camden: OT Sherman Hall

Georgia Tech's Sherman Hall passed on a chance to work out at the scout combines, and is considered to still be very raw, but he could fill the whole in the right end of the Cutter's offensive line. If he's not up to the task, East Carolina's Casey Renfro is also available. Also an option, defensive back, with CB Rich Coles still on the board.

Alternative Pick: CB Rich Coles

26. Yuma: DT Mike Washington

The Aces are a team with no glaring needs and, apart from fullback, very few places where it would seem a first round rookie would even be able to contribute right away. And who takes a fullback in the first round? Instead, Mike Washington is a natural Nose Tackle who should slide right into place in the Ace's 3-4 defense. Otherwise Yuma could look to add some youth to their receivers corps in the form of either Donald Tatum or Ken Donaldson.
Alternative Pick: WR Ken Donaldson

27. Port City: DT Monk Newsome.

Newsome should be a solid player that will fills the Steam's biggest need at defensive tackle. Defensive end Lincoln Boone could be an option here, and would be good value for the twenty-seventh pick in the draft. Another possibility is top rated center Irwin Dixon, especially when you consider that starting center Hugh Ansel is now entering his twelfth year.

Alternative Pick: DE Lincoln Boone

28. Columbus: RB Hugh Walton

The Catfish's championship window is closing quickly as quarterback Corey Lincoln enters his thirteenth season. Columbus needs to get an immediate impact out of their first round pick. Wide receiver is a pressing need, but the pickings are thin at that position this late in the first round. Instead Hugh Walton gets the call, he should be able to step in an at least share time with Dwight Dawson, the only other running back the 'fish have under contract going into the draft.

Alternative Pick: OT Casey Renfro

29. New Orleans: CB Rich Coles

The Stingray's secondary makeover continues with Perdue defensive back Rich Coles. While forty time in excess of 4.5 seconds is generally something of a concern for a first round corner, Coles does have one advantage over all the other top CBs; he hasn't been drafted yet. If New Orleans' other first round pick, Norris, is moved over to corner another safety is a possibility here.

Alternative Pick: FS Jimmie Gordon

30. Saint Paul: DE Lincoln Boone

Defensive end is the Bandit's greatest need, Lincoln Boone is the best defensive end on the board. Sometimes, late in the first round, it really is that easy. Devin Heaton, who is more a speed rusher to Boone's power would be the alternative here, but it really doesn't matter. Whomever they end up taking has a good chance of starting over the Bandit's current collection of warm bodies at defensive end.

Alternative Pick: DE Devin Heaton

31. Dakota: DT Preston Benton

The Totems got this pick, and two others, by trading defensive tackle Larry King to Morgantown, so it is only appropriate that they try and get someone to fill his place with it. If it doesn't work out, the Totems always have those other two to other picks to try with. If nothing else perhaps they can combine all three players into some monstrous, three headed, six armed, six legged, eight hundred fifty pound tackle. That should do the trick

Alternative Pick: LB Antoine Holmberg

32. Utah: OG Terry Scott

The defending champs were fifth in the league last year in total run plays, and third in run percentage at 54.7%, but only averaged a measly 3.62 yards per carry. The Bees won't find a stud running back at the bottom of the first round to try and improve that last number, but they do find top offensive guard Terry Scott.

Alternative Pick: WR Fred Moffat

[Pat]

AWESOME MOCK!

Not sure about my pick...but man, that is very well done. Front page that shit.

[Guest]

thanks Rando for your work.... May be looking to trade down if it goes like this...

[Jistic]

AWESOME MOCK!

Not sure about my pick...but man, that is very well done. Front page that shit.

Agreed, just a fantastic job. Kudos.

[aholbert]

AWESOME MOCK!

Not sure about my pick...but man, that is very well done. Front page that shit.

Just front paged him. Great work Rando.

[Clay]

Kudos.

Probably not the way I'd go with my pick, but a lot of facts in the words.

[Dave]

Great mock draft!!!

As for the bars/combine thing, I think the bars can indicate what type or style of player a guy will turn out to be, but the real indicator of how good he'll be is his combine performance. If you draft a player with good bars and a bad combine, there's a very good chance he will suck. But a player with bad bars and a good combine, while he might not turn out to be the type of player you want based on which bars are higher than others, he'll invariably turn out to be a good football player.

Also, while on the subject, it would be cool to have some kind of report in the game to tell who was drafting well and who wasn't. Like how many past draft picks are currently on each team, what the average ratings of their picks were in each round, stuff like that. You can piece it together yourself with some legwork, but as far as I know there are no reports available in-game for stuff like that.

[Lintyfresh85]

Great mock draft!!!

As for the bars/combine thing, I think the bars can indicate what type or style of player a guy will turn out to be, but the real indicator of how good he'll be is his combine performance. If you draft a player with good bars and a bad combine, there's a very good chance he will suck. But a player with bad bars and a good combine, while he might not turn out to be the type of player you want based on which bars are higher than others, he'll invariably turn out to be a good football player.

Also, while on the subject, it would be cool to have some kind of report in the game to tell who was drafting well and who wasn't. Like how many past draft picks are currently on each team, what the average ratings of their picks were in each round, stuff like that. You can piece it together yourself with some legwork, but as far as I know there are no reports available in-game for stuff like that.

Actually there is. At least a page on how many first rounders are still on the team. There's also a page that tells you how each guy got on your team, whether through drafting, free agency or trades etc.

Also the game grades each draft after its over.

Btw, GREAT job Rando. Awesome stuff.