Trade Values

[irabowman]

I wish there was someone who could write up a program where you enter a players position they play and what the scout sees them at value wise. Then what the compensation draft pick wise is. Example RB scout rating 60 gets a 3rd rd pick. Then when your considering trading away or trading for a player you have a better idea of what is fair to ask, or know if your way over paying. If there is a program already out there like this I have not seen it yet. If there isn't I think it be a cool idea if we have some programmers out their looking for a idea to do.

[Guest]

I don't believe that there is any such program. I don't think making one would be very useful because there are so may extra factors to consider when making a trade:

- How old is the player?
- What is the player's injury history?
- Do the player's specific bars fit my team? Two guys at the same position could be rated the same but their bars could be totally different.
- What are values of the player's hidden bars (Avoid INT, Avoid Fumbles)?

There may be more that I am not thinking about right now.

[Sharkn20]

Time to lowball the newbies :)

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[IrishGuy65]

I'm also willing to pay a lot more if I'm one or two positions away from what I think is a top talent team. I felt like I had a really good team, and was willing to pay well for the services of Olsavsky (a 1st round pick and two quality younger players), and Sage (a 2nd and 3rd for a 12 year, 33 year old player that just had a ratings drop the previous season).

Trading is a two way street, also. Not everyone has the same value for the same player. One team, for example, might value MLB higher than another, making the player worth more to the former team than the latter. In addition, as Rob said, different people value different skills. So, where one person values run stopping in the MLB, another may want a zone cover guy for his Tampa Two, like the great LB from Chicago, Urlacher... a true zone cover guy.

So, often, if you are looking to trade a player, you need to find a range of value for your player that you are comfortable with, and only make a deal in that range. If you are trading for a player, find a price point you won't pay more than, and negotiate with that in mind. Keep in mind, if you and the player you are talking to have pretty different idea on value, a trade is not likely...

When I make an offer for a player, I have a value set, and I make an offer near that value, so there isn't much negotiating room. If the player comes back with a counter offer that is far different, I end the discussions, as we are obviously too far apart OR the guy is trying to fleece me... in either case I'm not interested in the trade any more. If someone comes to me for one of my players, then I give them a general idea of where I am and present to them the reasons why I am there. I feel that, if we can agree with each other on what makes the player more or less valuable, we can come to an agreement on a mutual understanding of his relative value.

So, getting back to an ILB, I value run defense, play diagnosis, and either some pass coverage skills OR pass rushing skills. Based on that, I can evaluate a player. Now, if I'm trading draft picks, I try to figure out where I can, in general, get a player similar to this guy in the draft, and that's his value to me. I adjust it for the things Rob talked about, mostly... age, injury history, my need in this area and the available talent, etc.

Finally, sometimes it's better to make a player for player trade, as the two sides have differing opinions not on the player, but on the value of a draft pick. Some put the value of draft picks far too high, especially guys who don't draft well... I don't know why this is. Every draft pick is a gamble, and every known player is a known quantity. A known quantity is more valuable than an unknown quantity. Even the best drafters find bombs in the 2nd round. So, my final piece of advice in all this is do NOT overvalue draft picks. MAYBE you'll get a good player for 12 years, or maybe you'll get a player who you don't even bother to resign after his rookie contract is up.

[IrishGuy65]

Time to lowball the newbies :)

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Oh, and this is not a joke from Shark.

[Sharkn20]

Oh, and this is not a joke from Shark.

Who knows...

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[Aston]

Trade value is very subjective. If you're new, tread carefully.

For example, since it was mentioned: Sage is a 66/66 QB. That's roughly a Top 5 QB in the league, certainly Top 10. South Maryland gets this premier QB talent for a good 4-5 years and gave up nothing they'll miss -- a 2nd and 3rd. What are the odds that either of those guys end up deserving a 2nd contract before 4-5 years, or that either of them has anywhere close to the value of a stud QB in the meantime?

But look at the flip side. St. Paul was paying two premier QBs premier money, and it was hamstringing them. They had tried for years to unload Sage for almost anything -- no takers. Finally, they got a deal. And for them, a 2+3 makes for a pretty nice double shot at landing guys to improve their team, while also (finally) solving their situation.

A few of my own thoughts; YMMV:

- Timing dictates value.
- Talent >> age.
- Giving away draft picks can be a significant help to the other team's chances of staying good.
- Getting draft picks, even a few high ones, doesn't put you in a power position.
- There is no trading without risk. Be careful.

All trades that go through end up being defensibly fair deals, which means both sides are giving and getting. Getting something you want at the right time is very valuable. So make sure that describes your take from the deal. IMO, it's normal - and probably healthy - that trading doesn't happen a lot. Both parties are usually careful. This is very, very true:

So, my final piece of advice in all this is do NOT overvalue draft picks. MAYBE you'll get a good player for 12 years, or maybe you'll get a player who you don't even bother to resign after his rookie contract is up.

Sometimes a trade will work out, and sometimes it won't. Try to have fun with it :)

[IrishGuy65]

- Timing dictates value.

All good points, Aston. This one is a really good one I didn't really think about, but very true.

[irabowman]

TY everyone for your input. I do realize a lot more goes into it. I was just thinking of it giving you a starting point. I am always scared I am going to p*ss someone off with what they consider a lowball offer. Guess if I do all I can do is apologize. I know I already been shopping around for a WR and there is some good ones out there, I just wish they was a little bit younger but if they were with the bars and ratings they have they probably be more expensive than they are now. I know it is a gamble when you trade I just see my luck being I trade for a guy and he get's injured 1st game season and then his skills take a big drop on me. However that could happen even with a rookie I guess.

[Guest]

Ah, don't worry about lowballing. If someone is interested in a deal, they will make a counter offer. I almost always lowball on an initial offer unless there is a "buy now" price on a guy that I can live with. Sometimes it ends up in negotiations than pan out into a deal, most times it doesn't.. But I think with me it is mostly because I am pretty frugal with my picks. I usually don't spend them at all unless I am trying to get something significant done or unless there is a decent piece available at a good price.

[Sharkn20]

Ah, don't worry about lowballing. If someone is interested in a deal, they will make a counter offer. I almost always lowball on an initial offer unless there is a "buy now" price on a guy that I can live with. Sometimes it ends up in negotiations than pan out into a deal, most times it doesn't.. But I think with me it is mostly because I am pretty frugal with my picks. I usually don't spend them at all unless I am trying to get something significant done or unless there is a decent piece available at a good price.

Same here

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[RyanG]

I'm never really sure about trade values, since I am new to the game. So I try not to trade too much. I have been watching the trades in this league in the hope I can get a better understanding.

This thread has been very helpful also.

[Guest]

I'm never really sure about trade values, since I am new to the game. So I try not to trade too much. I have been watching the trades in this league in the hope I can get a better understanding.

This thread has been very helpful also.

Generally everyone wants way too much for their players and wants to pay way too little. I mostly don't bother trading, except with the much maligned Nutah who I've never had any regrets trading with.