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Ale Division ---
Surprise - Hartford Whalers
Disappointment - Maine Guides
The Whalers have already "won" the off-season...or at least according to WAR gained. A lot of changeover on this roster. Eight BLB players left, six players added. Pre-Season predictions has them at 76 wins, a number they haven't exceeded since 2056. The team bottomed out two years ago at 58 wins, won 64 wins last year, and I see that trend continuing. Amongst the big FA additions, four of them are Starting Pitchers, all with at least 2.3 WAR last season. Another large contribution will come from the prospects. They currently have the T-2nd best farm system in the BLB and a lot of the names at the top will make the Opening Day roster. Pawtucket won the division last year with only 86 wins... and after that? It does seem like the division could be up for grabs. If the Whalers were to finish even 2nd in this division, that would be the first time since 2054. If they were to win it? That hasn't happened since 2038! Keep an eye on 1B Levi Lane and SP Trevor Caldwell as potential Refreshing New Brews.
While the Whalers added a ton of pieces, the Maine Guides have not... added a single player who played in the BLB last season. The silver lining, they didn't really lose anyone of significance. Pre-season predictions has them finishing 82-80 after a 76-86 2062 and 96-66 2061. I feel like this group has been playing above their level and will come back down to Earth in 2064. The two highest paid players on their roster: 3B Jerry Coleman and CF Jaret Foley contributed a combined 2.7 WAR last year for about $40M in 2064 payroll. This season they will get 2B Jarrett Shaneyfelt back after missing all but 20 games last season, which should be a huge help. Down on the farm, one of their best prospects 3B Blake Simmons looks BLB-ready but where will he play? 1B Frank Memmi, 3B Coleman and DH Derek Engledow are solidified in the lineup.
Lager Division---
Surprise - New Orleans Voodoo
Disappointment - Santo Domingo Rum Runners
The Voodoo always seem like a team that exceeds predictions...at least in the regular season. They have won 92 and 91 games the past two seasons but the predictions have them just 82-80. When you look a the positional strength page, it doesn't look super promising to repeat as a 90 win team, maybe even not an 80 win team, especially in that division. However they made some smart moves in Free-Agency to replace the three guys going out. And it seems like John always gets the most out of his roster. The farm system is the best in baseball by a wide margin. Just in terms of the OSA "point system" their farm system is as talented as the #2 and the #8 system COMBINED. The vast majority of them don't have much experience beyond A-Ball and while I don't think they will trade a lot of prospects to win now, it is always an option. Also, we will see what happens with these kids because if they struggle early, they might be up sooner or later.
SDR had the worst off-season by WAR measures at -6.1. The group has one of the best rotations in baseball, one of the best young hitters in the game....and that's about it. The Lager is a strong division and SDR has a leadership issue. The predictions have them 81-81 after 78 last year. That was a bit of shock last year, after winning just 55 games in 2061. The rotation could honestly go six players deep if they wanted but they are going to struggle to score and likely will have a subpar defense. Without someone behind the levers, if they struggle out the gate it could snowball.
Stout Division--
Surprise - Batavia Muckdogs
Disappointment - Carolina Tobs
Ding dong the witch is dead! Batavia long-time owner has died and I think the black cloud following this team the past... 10 years? is being lifted. The Muckdogs didn't add a single BLB player in FA and lost their starting CF to Montreal. However, I do think this team has some talent and a change in philosophy to pitching and defense will do this team wonders. Now, when I say surprise, for all the teams listed in this section I'm not suggesting they are going to win 100 games. Batavia has won 58, 68 and 63 games the past three seasons. I think they will go higher than that and might even have a chance to compete for the final WC spot if things bounce their way. Pre-Season predictions has the roster winning just 60 games, lowest in the league. They also have a Top 5 farm system with a lot of that talent in the BLB right now.
The Tobs are predicted at 76 wins after winning 89 in 2062. Them being in this section might come as a surprise. The roster lost only a MR who produced a 0.1 WAR while adding two SPs who combined for 3.8 WAR. The concern I have is with age. The Tobs have 11 players over the age of 30, and a lot of them are expected to fill big roles. The roster is obviously balanced out by some of the best young hitters in the game: Dominick Booth and Evan Olsen. This team should still compete for the Wild Card and as we all know, is going to hit a lot of homers. I just think the team, like others in this section, played better than expectations last year (especially after trading that pitcher to California) and water finds it's level this year.
Bock Division--
Surprise - Windy City Blues
Disappointment - Los Angeles Dinos
The Blues are predicted at 87 wins, a season after winning 94 last year, and 85 in 2061. They did lose some talent, and actually finished sixth worst in off-season WAR at -4.2. The Blues always have good pitching, they usually play defense and have a pitcher-friendly park. This year though? Their offensive lineup is stacked. According to positional strength, every starting spot is above average, with three spots being #1 or #2. This is the time where I bring up 1B Nigel Torres. I know he has been talked about the past few seasons but as a DL GM, I don't dedicate a lot of time to the IL. Torres only produced a 1.2 WAR last year but this season.... the sky is the limit. Against RHP, my scout has him 65-55-75-80-50...and he hasn't hit his potential yet. They haven't won the division since 2044 and haven't won a Brew since 2041. This team has the potential to do both those things.
The Dinos are predicted at 79 wins after winning 87 last year. The change at GM proved to make a huge difference, which often happens in this league. Shark can work his magic again this season but the roster really doesn't have the talent you'd expect from an 87 win team. They hit well above their weight in 2062 and if there is a theme to the "disappointment" teams, they are going to come back to Earth. The Dinos did make a big FA splash, signing former Dallas 3B Jehvon Curry to a 5-year, $100M contract but he can't do it himself.
Surprise - Hartford Whalers
Disappointment - Maine Guides
The Whalers have already "won" the off-season...or at least according to WAR gained. A lot of changeover on this roster. Eight BLB players left, six players added. Pre-Season predictions has them at 76 wins, a number they haven't exceeded since 2056. The team bottomed out two years ago at 58 wins, won 64 wins last year, and I see that trend continuing. Amongst the big FA additions, four of them are Starting Pitchers, all with at least 2.3 WAR last season. Another large contribution will come from the prospects. They currently have the T-2nd best farm system in the BLB and a lot of the names at the top will make the Opening Day roster. Pawtucket won the division last year with only 86 wins... and after that? It does seem like the division could be up for grabs. If the Whalers were to finish even 2nd in this division, that would be the first time since 2054. If they were to win it? That hasn't happened since 2038! Keep an eye on 1B Levi Lane and SP Trevor Caldwell as potential Refreshing New Brews.
While the Whalers added a ton of pieces, the Maine Guides have not... added a single player who played in the BLB last season. The silver lining, they didn't really lose anyone of significance. Pre-season predictions has them finishing 82-80 after a 76-86 2062 and 96-66 2061. I feel like this group has been playing above their level and will come back down to Earth in 2064. The two highest paid players on their roster: 3B Jerry Coleman and CF Jaret Foley contributed a combined 2.7 WAR last year for about $40M in 2064 payroll. This season they will get 2B Jarrett Shaneyfelt back after missing all but 20 games last season, which should be a huge help. Down on the farm, one of their best prospects 3B Blake Simmons looks BLB-ready but where will he play? 1B Frank Memmi, 3B Coleman and DH Derek Engledow are solidified in the lineup.
Lager Division---
Surprise - New Orleans Voodoo
Disappointment - Santo Domingo Rum Runners
The Voodoo always seem like a team that exceeds predictions...at least in the regular season. They have won 92 and 91 games the past two seasons but the predictions have them just 82-80. When you look a the positional strength page, it doesn't look super promising to repeat as a 90 win team, maybe even not an 80 win team, especially in that division. However they made some smart moves in Free-Agency to replace the three guys going out. And it seems like John always gets the most out of his roster. The farm system is the best in baseball by a wide margin. Just in terms of the OSA "point system" their farm system is as talented as the #2 and the #8 system COMBINED. The vast majority of them don't have much experience beyond A-Ball and while I don't think they will trade a lot of prospects to win now, it is always an option. Also, we will see what happens with these kids because if they struggle early, they might be up sooner or later.
SDR had the worst off-season by WAR measures at -6.1. The group has one of the best rotations in baseball, one of the best young hitters in the game....and that's about it. The Lager is a strong division and SDR has a leadership issue. The predictions have them 81-81 after 78 last year. That was a bit of shock last year, after winning just 55 games in 2061. The rotation could honestly go six players deep if they wanted but they are going to struggle to score and likely will have a subpar defense. Without someone behind the levers, if they struggle out the gate it could snowball.
Stout Division--
Surprise - Batavia Muckdogs
Disappointment - Carolina Tobs
Ding dong the witch is dead! Batavia long-time owner has died and I think the black cloud following this team the past... 10 years? is being lifted. The Muckdogs didn't add a single BLB player in FA and lost their starting CF to Montreal. However, I do think this team has some talent and a change in philosophy to pitching and defense will do this team wonders. Now, when I say surprise, for all the teams listed in this section I'm not suggesting they are going to win 100 games. Batavia has won 58, 68 and 63 games the past three seasons. I think they will go higher than that and might even have a chance to compete for the final WC spot if things bounce their way. Pre-Season predictions has the roster winning just 60 games, lowest in the league. They also have a Top 5 farm system with a lot of that talent in the BLB right now.
The Tobs are predicted at 76 wins after winning 89 in 2062. Them being in this section might come as a surprise. The roster lost only a MR who produced a 0.1 WAR while adding two SPs who combined for 3.8 WAR. The concern I have is with age. The Tobs have 11 players over the age of 30, and a lot of them are expected to fill big roles. The roster is obviously balanced out by some of the best young hitters in the game: Dominick Booth and Evan Olsen. This team should still compete for the Wild Card and as we all know, is going to hit a lot of homers. I just think the team, like others in this section, played better than expectations last year (especially after trading that pitcher to California) and water finds it's level this year.
Bock Division--
Surprise - Windy City Blues
Disappointment - Los Angeles Dinos
The Blues are predicted at 87 wins, a season after winning 94 last year, and 85 in 2061. They did lose some talent, and actually finished sixth worst in off-season WAR at -4.2. The Blues always have good pitching, they usually play defense and have a pitcher-friendly park. This year though? Their offensive lineup is stacked. According to positional strength, every starting spot is above average, with three spots being #1 or #2. This is the time where I bring up 1B Nigel Torres. I know he has been talked about the past few seasons but as a DL GM, I don't dedicate a lot of time to the IL. Torres only produced a 1.2 WAR last year but this season.... the sky is the limit. Against RHP, my scout has him 65-55-75-80-50...and he hasn't hit his potential yet. They haven't won the division since 2044 and haven't won a Brew since 2041. This team has the potential to do both those things.
The Dinos are predicted at 79 wins after winning 87 last year. The change at GM proved to make a huge difference, which often happens in this league. Shark can work his magic again this season but the roster really doesn't have the talent you'd expect from an 87 win team. They hit well above their weight in 2062 and if there is a theme to the "disappointment" teams, they are going to come back to Earth. The Dinos did make a big FA splash, signing former Dallas 3B Jehvon Curry to a 5-year, $100M contract but he can't do it himself.