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Wilmington Wildcats: 2057 Season Review
Season - 86-73: locked into the #3 Wild Card with three games left
Preseason Predictions - 79-83: Tied for #4 WC - Lonnie Coleman Game
WHAT WENT RIGHT:
Pitching and Defense: Entering the year, Pre-Season predictions had this unit ranked 3rd in runs given up so expectations were high. However, this group finished 1st in the DL in nearly every pitching stat, most importantly runs allowed, and ERA for both SP/RP. The team also had the #1 defensive efficiency in the DL, 3rd in zone rating.
The group was lead by SP Rick Robertson who finished the season 11-9 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Not a career year, or a Pale Ale worthy season, but considering how he started the season (6.43 ERA, 1.61 WHIP) in April, he was pretty lights out the majority of the year. The bullpen, again best in the DL, was lead by closer Kristofer Humberto who did have a career year: 40 saves, 1.67 ERA and 0.88 WHIP all top-10 marks. Special shoutout to swingman Ron Thomas. The 24-year-old did double duty as a SP (11 starts) and RP (38 games). He finished the year with a 2.6 WAR in 135 IP.
Cheap Pickups: Getting hired for ST1 didn't leave a lot of options in terms of remaining free-agents so the Wildcats went bargain shopping and also attacked the waiver wire. To say they were lucky with results would be an understatement. The biggest get was RP Marc Hattan, a waiver claim in April from Pawtucket. The 29-year-old posted a 2.00 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 1.7 WAR in 94.1 IP of relief. But the biggest shocker had to come from catcher Bert Thoma. One of the better defensive catchers in the BLB universe, he was left in the cold during the FA period. He signed in June for $280k and somehow became a hitting threat for the first time at 33-years-old. In 74 games, he hit .282/.860 with a 2.4 WAR. Per game, you could make the argument he was the best catcher in all of baseball! Pretty remarkable for a guy who normally hits about .220 with a .650 OPS.
Other pickups include waiver claim RP James Scott (3.41 ERA) and trade deadline 1B Burgess Nalivkin (.305 AVG in 36 GP).
Rookies: 21-year-old infielder Dusty Cahue got a surprise call for ST2 and never really looked back. More of a natural 2B, he was forced into action at 3B as the roster was devoid of BLB quality players. Last year, he was the 10th overall pick and split time in Rookie Ball and Single-A. For the season, he hit .303/.829 with a 2.6 WAR. His 14 triples were good for T-3rd best in the entire BLB.
This years 1st-round pick, CF Evan Yanko, might have been even better in a smaller sample. The 11th overall pick hit at every level this year he played in: NCAA, Single-A, Double-A, Triple-A and the BLB. As a pro in 39 games he hit .327/.898 with a 1.6 WAR. He was probably ready for the BLB immediately after the draft.
WHAT WENT WRONG:
Hitting: I could probably write an entire review just on how poor this group was as a unit. Currently 8th in runs scored in the DL, 12th in bases on balls, 12th in stolen bases, 9th in OBP. I feel like the runs scored at 8th isn't terrible for a WC team, but I do feel it's a bit misleading. Without consistent baserunners, or runners taking an extra base or two on the paths, there were a TON of low, low scoring efforts. In a given sim, Wilmington would put up scores of 1, 2, 3, 2, 4 and then the bats get hot for a game and we put up a 10+. I do think this will be what really bites us in the ass come playoff time as we just don't score consistently.
It wasn't all bad as 2B Vince Cox had a career year (5.4 WAR, 41 SB, 142 games) and 1B Cory Petit had a resurgence (.343 - 3.5 WAR).
OFs Raymond Dixon and Zeke Lebron: Before Yanko was even drafted, the Wildcats roster was pretty thin at CF. In Spring Training, Dixon would try CF. He was making $17.6M, 2nd highest on the team. He hit just .204 and made a few bonehead plays fielding out of position in center. He tore his achilles running the bases in ST2 and never took a regular season rep. Lebron, the teams highest paid player at $19.1M, was coming off a great year where he hit 39 homeruns and 53 stolen bases. This year he hit 15 homeruns and stole just 18 bases. His 0.8 WAR and 90 OPS+ was some of the worst marks on the entire team.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS:
Wilmington will either play SDR or Montreal, two teams that appear more well rounded than our one-sided team. Considering our downward trend since April, I wouldn't be surprised by a sweep. With a SP like Robertson, I guess we have a punchers chance in any series, but the inability to have regular base runners, doesn't bode well against the "good teams." It would probably take an incredible effort from the pitching staff to keep every game under the 3-4 run mark we can't consistently get over.
If we face Montreal, I will say Exports in 5. If we play SDR, I'll take the Rum Runners in 4.
OUTLOOK FOR 2024
While we did have a bit of budget room and cash on hand to start this season, with a lot of younger players extensions kicking in or big arbitration estimates, the team is projected $10M+ overbudget to enter the off-season. No real declinable contracts beyond arbitrations. With Dixon, Lebron and Humberto eating up $56M of the payroll, at best this team will probably bargain shop. Our owner has already informed us he's cutting $6M off the teams budget. Only big departures are #3 SP Drew Henthorne and potentially an arbitration casualty in 1B Petit. Henthorne was shopped at the deadline and multiple teams offered a 4th round pick. He is unlikely to come back and as a mid-rotation guy, will probably receive some interest in the off-season. Petit has been great but his arbitration estimate has hovered from $10M to $15M and with the current financial situation, it's probably 50/50 he's back.
So the roster should look pretty familiar. The team will probably need to find a catcher, potentially a 1B (not to mention Nalivkin is a FA), and some SP/RP depth.
FINAL THOUGHTS
I think we were very fortunate to end up where we are. Team's winning percentage by month: April .650, May .620, June .586, July .500, August .448, September .464. The team has played less than .500 ball since June. Considering the performances we got out of waiver claims, late FA signees and two rookies, if we run the simulation a second or third time, I'm not sure we are even a 75-win team. I do feel fortunate to takeover a team that is young-ish and able to at least compete for playoff spots. The Lager division is the best in baseball and the more competitive, the better.
I just want to say thanks to Matt and Brad for bringing me back in this season, and anyone else behind the scenes. I honestly underestimated how much I would enjoy playing in the BLB again. It's such a great group of guys and I missed it. I know I've caused my share of headaches over the years. I feel like I'm in a different place with OOTP/Gaming and just my life in general. Older, wiser, a father, etc. The BLB is a nice little escape when life gets hard and I look forward to it every sim. Thanks everybody.
Season - 86-73: locked into the #3 Wild Card with three games left
Preseason Predictions - 79-83: Tied for #4 WC - Lonnie Coleman Game
WHAT WENT RIGHT:
Pitching and Defense: Entering the year, Pre-Season predictions had this unit ranked 3rd in runs given up so expectations were high. However, this group finished 1st in the DL in nearly every pitching stat, most importantly runs allowed, and ERA for both SP/RP. The team also had the #1 defensive efficiency in the DL, 3rd in zone rating.
The group was lead by SP Rick Robertson who finished the season 11-9 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Not a career year, or a Pale Ale worthy season, but considering how he started the season (6.43 ERA, 1.61 WHIP) in April, he was pretty lights out the majority of the year. The bullpen, again best in the DL, was lead by closer Kristofer Humberto who did have a career year: 40 saves, 1.67 ERA and 0.88 WHIP all top-10 marks. Special shoutout to swingman Ron Thomas. The 24-year-old did double duty as a SP (11 starts) and RP (38 games). He finished the year with a 2.6 WAR in 135 IP.
Cheap Pickups: Getting hired for ST1 didn't leave a lot of options in terms of remaining free-agents so the Wildcats went bargain shopping and also attacked the waiver wire. To say they were lucky with results would be an understatement. The biggest get was RP Marc Hattan, a waiver claim in April from Pawtucket. The 29-year-old posted a 2.00 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 1.7 WAR in 94.1 IP of relief. But the biggest shocker had to come from catcher Bert Thoma. One of the better defensive catchers in the BLB universe, he was left in the cold during the FA period. He signed in June for $280k and somehow became a hitting threat for the first time at 33-years-old. In 74 games, he hit .282/.860 with a 2.4 WAR. Per game, you could make the argument he was the best catcher in all of baseball! Pretty remarkable for a guy who normally hits about .220 with a .650 OPS.
Other pickups include waiver claim RP James Scott (3.41 ERA) and trade deadline 1B Burgess Nalivkin (.305 AVG in 36 GP).
Rookies: 21-year-old infielder Dusty Cahue got a surprise call for ST2 and never really looked back. More of a natural 2B, he was forced into action at 3B as the roster was devoid of BLB quality players. Last year, he was the 10th overall pick and split time in Rookie Ball and Single-A. For the season, he hit .303/.829 with a 2.6 WAR. His 14 triples were good for T-3rd best in the entire BLB.
This years 1st-round pick, CF Evan Yanko, might have been even better in a smaller sample. The 11th overall pick hit at every level this year he played in: NCAA, Single-A, Double-A, Triple-A and the BLB. As a pro in 39 games he hit .327/.898 with a 1.6 WAR. He was probably ready for the BLB immediately after the draft.
WHAT WENT WRONG:
Hitting: I could probably write an entire review just on how poor this group was as a unit. Currently 8th in runs scored in the DL, 12th in bases on balls, 12th in stolen bases, 9th in OBP. I feel like the runs scored at 8th isn't terrible for a WC team, but I do feel it's a bit misleading. Without consistent baserunners, or runners taking an extra base or two on the paths, there were a TON of low, low scoring efforts. In a given sim, Wilmington would put up scores of 1, 2, 3, 2, 4 and then the bats get hot for a game and we put up a 10+. I do think this will be what really bites us in the ass come playoff time as we just don't score consistently.
It wasn't all bad as 2B Vince Cox had a career year (5.4 WAR, 41 SB, 142 games) and 1B Cory Petit had a resurgence (.343 - 3.5 WAR).
OFs Raymond Dixon and Zeke Lebron: Before Yanko was even drafted, the Wildcats roster was pretty thin at CF. In Spring Training, Dixon would try CF. He was making $17.6M, 2nd highest on the team. He hit just .204 and made a few bonehead plays fielding out of position in center. He tore his achilles running the bases in ST2 and never took a regular season rep. Lebron, the teams highest paid player at $19.1M, was coming off a great year where he hit 39 homeruns and 53 stolen bases. This year he hit 15 homeruns and stole just 18 bases. His 0.8 WAR and 90 OPS+ was some of the worst marks on the entire team.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS:
Wilmington will either play SDR or Montreal, two teams that appear more well rounded than our one-sided team. Considering our downward trend since April, I wouldn't be surprised by a sweep. With a SP like Robertson, I guess we have a punchers chance in any series, but the inability to have regular base runners, doesn't bode well against the "good teams." It would probably take an incredible effort from the pitching staff to keep every game under the 3-4 run mark we can't consistently get over.
If we face Montreal, I will say Exports in 5. If we play SDR, I'll take the Rum Runners in 4.
OUTLOOK FOR 2024
While we did have a bit of budget room and cash on hand to start this season, with a lot of younger players extensions kicking in or big arbitration estimates, the team is projected $10M+ overbudget to enter the off-season. No real declinable contracts beyond arbitrations. With Dixon, Lebron and Humberto eating up $56M of the payroll, at best this team will probably bargain shop. Our owner has already informed us he's cutting $6M off the teams budget. Only big departures are #3 SP Drew Henthorne and potentially an arbitration casualty in 1B Petit. Henthorne was shopped at the deadline and multiple teams offered a 4th round pick. He is unlikely to come back and as a mid-rotation guy, will probably receive some interest in the off-season. Petit has been great but his arbitration estimate has hovered from $10M to $15M and with the current financial situation, it's probably 50/50 he's back.
So the roster should look pretty familiar. The team will probably need to find a catcher, potentially a 1B (not to mention Nalivkin is a FA), and some SP/RP depth.
FINAL THOUGHTS
I think we were very fortunate to end up where we are. Team's winning percentage by month: April .650, May .620, June .586, July .500, August .448, September .464. The team has played less than .500 ball since June. Considering the performances we got out of waiver claims, late FA signees and two rookies, if we run the simulation a second or third time, I'm not sure we are even a 75-win team. I do feel fortunate to takeover a team that is young-ish and able to at least compete for playoff spots. The Lager division is the best in baseball and the more competitive, the better.
I just want to say thanks to Matt and Brad for bringing me back in this season, and anyone else behind the scenes. I honestly underestimated how much I would enjoy playing in the BLB again. It's such a great group of guys and I missed it. I know I've caused my share of headaches over the years. I feel like I'm in a different place with OOTP/Gaming and just my life in general. Older, wiser, a father, etc. The BLB is a nice little escape when life gets hard and I look forward to it every sim. Thanks everybody.