Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

2050 Season Preview - The Metrics

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • 2050 Season Preview - The Metrics

    We've reached the second half of the 21st century in the BLB, and we've got a return of the Metrics. Top mathematical minds from around the country have come together to devise a new formula, and are excited to share the results. Without further ado, or any explanation of methods, here are the results:

    Editor's Note: The Metrics are strictly a mathematical interpretation of the current state of the league, and do not reflect the views of the editorial team. If you disagree, just know that you're going against cold, hard math. On to the numbers.

    The Favorites:
    Team Metric Score BLB Rank
    Batavia Red Jackets 89.4 1
    Washington Bats 89.1 2
    -
    Two teams have separated themselves from the pack, and they both reside in the Stout Division. Sitting atop the Metrics are the Batavia Red Jackets, who after an aggressive rebuild for first half of the 2040s appear set to realize the fruits of that labor. Former top prospects now litter the roster and are ready to play starring roles, led by reigning IL Stout Slugger Julian Irwin. Meanwhile, their Stout rivals, the Washington Bats, look to stay on top of the standings despite a few notable departures from last season's 104 win team. The Metrics are particularly high on the Bats infield, as James "Turf" Goebel returns from the injured list at second base and the BLB's top rated player, Colby Hullinger, slides over the 3rd. On paper, this shapes up to be a titanic battle at the top of the division.


    The (Two-Time) Defending Champs:
    Team Metric Score BLB Rank
    Los Angeles Dinos 76.3 3
    -
    A bit of disrespect for the champs from the "math"? The Dinos have won two Brews in a row and return everyone of note from last season, but sit 3rd here. They are, of course, led by the BLB's best pitcher in Dwan Tamarovsky, postseason hero Cole Socia and may soon have a 3rd ace if Tod Steffen is ready to go.


    Likely Playoff Teams:
    Team Metric Score BLB Rank
    California Kodiaks 71.5 4
    New Orleans Voodoo 69.4 5
    Baltimore Bulldogs 68.9 6
    Pawtucket Patriots 65.4 7
    Seattle Pilots 65.3 8
    Toronto Canadians 65.1 9
    Pittsburgh Millers 63.9 10
    -
    The top four teams in the BLB are all in the Import League. The Metrics are high on the Kodiaks, particularly after the additions of Josiah Foust and Seth Cobb from Wilmington (more on the Clowns much later in the piece). Finally, we get our first DL team, though it may surprise some to see it's New Orleans projected to pace the lesser league in 2050. Per usual, the Voodoo boast one of the best pitching staffs in the league, and new signee Karson Blair adds some star power to the lineup. The Baltimore Bulldogs are perhaps the biggest riser in the league this offseason. Coming off a 90-loss season, the Bulldogs now have an embarrassment of riches in the rotation, with the late season acquisition of Nathan McKelvey and rising star Jannero Peter to go along with Kelani Encinia. They may not have the overall depth of talent as Batavia and Washington, but look to be a very dangerous team (particularly in the playoffs with the aces in the rotation).

    Pawtucket and Toronto had perhaps the most interesting trade off the offseason which saw DL New Brew Dennis Daley move to Pawtucket while the face of the Patriots, Aubrey Albano heads north of the border. They're essentially tied in the Metrics and should both return to the postseason.

    Pittsburgh, coming off a crushing loss in the Brew, slide to #10 in the Metrics after a disheartening offseason that leads the entire league in Total WAR that has walked out the door with barely any replacement.


    Middle of the Pack - Fighting for the Wildcard?
    Team Metric Score BLB Rank
    New York Cyclones 60.9 11
    Denver Bulls 54.5 12
    Hartford Whalers 50.0 13
    Dallas Drillers 49.8 14
    Indianapolis Racers 46.7 15
    -
    The Bulls may be the most expensive team in the league, but they're no shoo-in to make the playoffs in a difficult Import League according to the Metrics. They've got star power, but do they have enough depth in the rest of the roster to stay in the hunt for 162 games? At lucky #13 reside the Hartford Whalers, a surprise playoff team from last season. They've got some intriguing young talent ready to take the next step that should keep them competitive, and plenty more on the way to be excited about. The Racers - led by young talents Raymond Dixon, Max Klein and Sayon Castillo - appear to be on the rise, but need reinforcements elsewhere on the roster to truly be a contender. They're one to watch in 2050.


    Not Terrible
    Team Metric Score BLB Rank
    Montreal Exports 42.7 16
    Santo Domingo Rum Runners 41.2 17
    Philadelphia Freedom 39.7 18
    Phoenix Roadrunners 38.1 19
    Carolina Tobs 36.7 20
    -
    The five teams here in the 16-20 range have some nice pieces, but not enough (on paper) to make any real noise in 2050. Montreal looks to have perhaps their least talented roster in recent memory and their 11 season streak of making the playoffs appears to be in real jeopardy. The Rum Runners, as always, have been active this offseason as they've moved on from their marquee acquisitions from last offseason, but the Metrics don't believe their moves are enough to move back into contention. A trio of IL teams- Philadelphia, Phoenix and Carolina - all have some solid players, but also glaring deficiencies that leave them outside of the playoff picture on Opening Day.


    Fighting for the #1 Pick
    Team Metric Score BLB Rank
    Windy City Blues 31.9 21
    Wilmington Clowns 31.6 22
    Maine Guides 31.5 23
    Syracuse Snappers 26.6 24
    -
    Our last group appears to be well off the pace in 2050, based on the convoluted Metrics formulas. Windy City narrowly missed the playoffs in 2049, but has been quiet this offseason and the numbers think they're in for some regression. Wilmington looks to be in a rebuild with top players Foust and Cobb heading off to California. Does the formula adequately account for defense? The Guides hope it doesn't, but the Metrics don't like much about Maine outside of their glovework. The Snappers round out the field, and can only hope that some of their youngsters develop in what appears to be a difficult season to come.

    ----

    There you have it. The Metrics believe we've got a two horse race at the top of the league, with most of the true contenders residing in the Import League. Is the math correct? Did they get all of the decimal points in the right spot? Only time will tell. With the number of impactful players still available in free agency, it may all have been a waste of time to begin with, but the calculations are complete and the BLB is ready to play ball in 2050.
    Last edited by liquidcrash; 07-27-2022, 04:26 PM.
    Washington Bats, 2013-

  • #2
    Fantastic read Liquid!

    I'll definitely take this math!
    GM California Kodiaks 2014 - Present
    Brewmaster's Cup Champions 2036, 2043


    GM Edmonton Herd 1987 - Present
    Brewmaster's Bowl Champions - 1990


    GM Toronto Arenas 1979/80 - 1982/1983
    Brewmaster's Ice Cup Champions 1979/80

    Comment


    • #3
      Feels kind of right “the math” for Pawtucket.
      PAWTUCKET PATRIOTS
      Brewmaster's Cup Champions 2010, 2013, 2014, 2016
      DL Champions 91, 03, 04, 10, 13, 14**,16,17
      Ale Champions 92, 93, 94, 02, 03, 04, 10, 11, 13, 14**, 16, 17, 18
      Wildcard 91, 95, 12


      ** Partial credit. Ran in Expo mode.

      Comment


      • #4
        Fantastic stuff.

        Comment

        Working...
        X