The 2030 Daily Keg - Week 17

[Matt]

thedailykeg_360.png

(AP)

Seattle goes 3-3 for the week but stays on top by a smidgen over the Wilmington Wildcats who went 6-0 this week with sweeps of Montreal and Santo Domingo. After the front office mix-up the new manager, Shane Blaskovich, is now 19-9 after that rough 1-5 first week. Philly also continues to keep on climbing after going 5-1. They went 19-7 in July and are now 3-0 in August. On the other side of the spectrum the Exports, Canadians, Bulldogs, and Snappers all went 1-5.

Power Rankings


1) Seattle Pilots (122.4, o)
2) Wilmington Wildcats (121.3, ++)
3) Maine Guides (118.7, -)
4) Philadelphia Freedom (112.8, +)
5) Washington Bats (112.6, -)
6) Miami Sharks (111.6, -)
7) New York Knights (101.7, o)
8) New Orleans Dukes (97.9, ++)
9) Los Angeles Dinos (90.4, ++)
10) Hartford Whalers (90.3, ++)
11) Baltimore Bulldogs (89.2, --)
12) Denver BC (88.6, --)
13) Pawtucket Patriots (87.5, ++)
14) Montreal Exports (86.9, --)
15) Pittsburgh Millers (84.7, -)
16) Windy City Blues (83.7, ++)
17) California Kodiaks (82.3, --)
18) Phoenix Roadrunners (79.1, +)
19) Indianapolis Racers (78.3, --)
20) Santo Domingo Rum Runners (77.8, --)
21) Batavia Red Jackets (68.2, +)
22) Syracuse Snappers (65.4, -)
23) Toronto Canadians (62.1, o)
24) Carolina Tobs (49.9, o)


Performance of the Week

RF Zheng-xin Yang - The 22nd pick in the 1st round of the 2027 draft returned from a separated shoulder and has been playing well. On August 3rd he lit up Phoenix to the tune of four hits, two home runs, and six runs batted in during a 14-5 victory. On the year he's hitting .317 with 7 HR's and 23 RBI's in 50 games.


Injury of the Week

LF J.D. Carr - No real long term injuries this week which is great new for the trainers around the week. On August 4th the Dukes did have JD Carr suffer a sprained ankle that will keep him day to day for several weeks. He was injured running down a fly ball and had to leave the game. X-rays showed no break though which is great news for the Dukes who went 5-1 this week and are now 2nd in the Lager behind Miami. On the year Carr is hitting .267 with 10 HR's and 47 RBI's.


Prospect of the Week

1B Parker Wood - The 16 year old first basemen for the Cretin-Derham Raiders finished 3rd in the Outstanding Hitter Award this season after recording a .446 average with 25 HR's and 74 RBI's in 40 games. He's not particularly good in the field, fast, and hasn't done well in class but he can crush the ball.


Five Things We Think We Think

1. Jamie O'Hearn must have read our comments a few weeks back that he might not reach the home run record due to his declining performance. This past week he hit .417 with 4 HR's and 12 RBI's and is projected to reach 559 for his career this season. If that happens he'll only be 13 short of Alvarez' record of 572. After being picked 3rd overall in the 2014 draft the now 36 year old O'Hearn is slowing down but apparently still has some gas left in the tank. He has spent his entire storied career in Pittsburgh and will certainly be a 1st ballot Hall of Fame induction.

2. As mentioned before Philly went 19-7 in July, the best record in the entire league. Their 77 runs allowed was the lowest in the league and their 147 runs scored was the highest. Not a bad month. Miami had the 2nd best month by going 17-8 and their Lager lead is now up to 9 games. Carolina had the worst month at 4-22 with a team 6.08 ERA. Baltimore (8-16) and LAD (7-18) also rough months as the Bulldogs are now 4th in the Stout and the Dino's are 3rd in the Bock.

3. Turell 'Two Ton' Morris was the talk of all sports when he was absolutely on fire in May and June when he hit 29 combined home runs and drove in 72 runs. In July he hit .274 with 4 HR's and 11 RBI's. He's still on pace to break the single season home run and RBI record but we're not sure he'll get there anymore.

4. On August 3nd Batavia and California decided to have a double header without scheduling one. The game was tied 3-3 in the 7th and was still tied 3-3 going into the 18th. California scored two in the top of the 18th on a double by Danny Rodriguez and the fans were disappointed but glad they were finally going home. The Kodiaks put in Jan Cannedy who gave up a single but then got two quick outs. He then walked Zach Henry and faced 1B Johnny Gillpatrick in his 8th at bat of the game. Down 0-2 Gillpatrick fouled off two pitches, took a ball, then crushed a 378 foot 3 run home run to win the game and send the hometown fans home happy...and tired.

5. Washington is the only division leading team that has a negative overall zone rating, as they come in at -13.5. Maine (+33.3), Miami (+38.3) and Seattle (+34.2) are three of the top four as Denver slides in with a +36.0 to take 2nd overall in the BLB. What's ironic is that every other team in the Stout has a plus zone rating, the only division to have that. Meanwhile Syracuse is -55.4.


Stat of the Week
.

Most Home Runs by Age (Earliest Occurrence Shown)

Age Player Team HR Year 18 Bruno Damours BAL 6 2023 19 Bruno Damours BAL 32 2024 20 Danny Nelson VIR 31 1979 21 Manny Nieto SEA 38 2022 22 Manny Nieto SEA 48 2023 23 Tommy Davis SYR 47 2029 24 Alex Villarroel DAL 51 2010 25 C.J. Viger KC 48 2024 26 T.J. Dunn+ TOR 49 2008 27 Al Kelly HAR 58 2022 28 Stu Stark BAT 49 2017 29 Stu Stark BAT 48 2018 30 Andy Ulloa SEA 58 2022 31 Andy Ulloa SEA 52 2023 32 Travis Wyatt BAT 48 2010 33 Alexis Camilo CLE 46 2006 34 Rex Morgan+ SYR 40 2001 35 Ismael Reyes MAI 41 2002 36 Fujiya Yamamoto NO 40 2011 37 Tom Wright CAL 46 2022 38 Jamie Urmson+ SEA 37 2024 39 Mel Woodbury+ VIR 33 1996 40 Danny Gomez WIL 32 2024 41 Tom Wright TOR 23 2026 42 Jose Guzman+ CAR 8 2000 43 Steve Suarez+ MAI 9 2022 44 Steve Suarez+ MAI 16 2023 45 Steve Suarez+ MAI 3 2024

..

[Sharkn20]

Thanks Matt!

[Jim]

Not knowing the answer to this may be why I'm so bad at this game, but what is overall zone rating?

[Matt]

I'm no baseball guy but it's a defensive fielding stat. I should have clarified. I just know from Shark you win from pitching and defense.

[Carlos]

Not knowing the answer to this may be why I'm so bad at this game, but what is overall zone rating?

Simple terms. It's the defense rating for a position.

[Guest]

Not knowing the answer to this may be why I'm so bad at this game, but what is overall zone rating?

https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/uzr/

Keep in mind that it’s only one metric and a player with an average zone rating isn’t always an average or below fielder. It can be affected if, for example, a center fielder has a shitty LF or RF next to them. They’re probably going to get nicked for not being as great in their defensive “zone” because they’re helping to cover the liability. It can also be misleading with guys like Nick Markakis, whose zone rating was never really great because he was slow and didn’t cover a ton of ground, but had a few zero-error seasons and was always near the top of the leaderboard in outfield assists.

[Pat]

Not knowing the answer to this may be why I'm so bad at this game, but what is overall zone rating?

Ultimate zone rating. Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) is a sabermetric statistic used to measure fielding. It compares the event that actually happened (hit/out/error) to data on similarly hit balls in the past to determine how much better or worse the fielder did than the "average" player. The "overall" part was just Matt combining all your fielding total via the team stats page.

The reason the Snappers have been so bad in zone rating this year, and the last couple, is largely due to the lack of range of a few position players. Arm and error play a smaller part as well. Dave Wagner, Ron Nucci, Dave Delancey, etc. The three mentioned have three of the worst zone ratings this season in all of baseball. Wagner, according to my scout and OSA, has a 55 on range and is only rated a 40 at CF defense. I believe the BLB consensus these days is you need a 65 range to be an average to above average CF. You can play a guy with 50, 55 or even 60 range at CF, but it's going to be really hard for them to field the spot. Ron Nucci, a 2B, has a 35 on range. At 2B, I think 50 is about as low as most GMs will go unless he is a middle of the order type hitter. Delancey, a RF, has a 30 range. You can get away with probably a 40 on range if they have great error rating and a cannon arm. At 45 and 70 on those two, it's just not enough.

Where this ends up hurting you is your pitchers. Guys like Hoon Park and Bill Roman had BABIP (Batting Average of Balls in Play) in the .320-.350 range. When they got to Montreal, who is only an average defensive team, dropped to .270 and .280. Seattle, one of the teams mentioned for best zone rating with ace SP, Dave Teel, has a .243 BABIP.

You can "get away" with playing a subpar fielder regularly if they make up for it with the bat and you only have maybe one or two bad fielders and/or you have a smaller park and pitchers who avoid contact. The issue here, is you usually want to "hide" a bad defender at say 1B, LF, 3B or C. Playing a subpar defender at a key defensive position like CF is far from ideal. Especially when paired next to a poor fielding corner outfielder (see: Delancey).

There is also a growing consensus that when a player is struggling defensively, or essentially "playing out of position", their batting stats tend to struggle. I don't know if it's always been like this because I remember back in the early BLB days, you'd see teams sticking a 1B/C/DH type at LF and they could still hit. Tyrone Abbott comes to mind from my own history. But in recent versions of OOTP, it seems a player will hit better, if he's not missing balls in the field. I think it's no coincidence that since Dave Wagner moved to LF that he's hitting better.

[Matt]

Thanks all!

[Delandis]

There is also a growing consensus that when a player is struggling defensively, or essentially "playing out of position", their batting stats tend to struggle. I don't know if it's always been like this because I remember back in the early BLB days, you'd see teams sticking a 1B/C/DH type at LF and they could still hit. Tyrone Abbott comes to mind from my own history. But in recent versions of OOTP, it seems a player will hit better, if he's not missing balls in the field. I think it's no coincidence that since Dave Wagner moved to LF that he's hitting better.

I think it has always been like that. I remember way back when I had Graham Tandy, playing him at 3rd instead of his natural 2B had a noticeably negative effect.

[Sharkn20]

Adding into all of this great explanations, if you have groundball pitchers, you want to have more Range in your IFs and if you have FB pitchers you want to have more range in the OF. Nowadays the BLB has a very poor level in OF as OFs just want to grab the bat and swing for the fences, but don't like to run to field the ball, and good OF defenders are awful hitters, there are few exceptions but that's it.

Just to conclude Catchers ability influence in your pitchers numbers, that's why no one wants Holland, cause he is basically a 1B / DH with no power, otherwise you would be hurting your pitching stats.

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[Pat]

Just to conclude Catchers ability influence in your pitchers numbers, that's why no one wants Holland, cause he is basically a 1B / DH with no power, otherwise you would be hurting your pitching stats.

It's Folland, and I actually think getting him for a 5th, with full salary paid is a steal. He's 33 and probably started his decline but it was only four seasons ago he hit .361/.879. His fielding stats this season aren't terrible. He hasn't been hurt. I think he needs a change of scenery. If I didn't already have three RH catchers on BLB salaries, I'd probably give him a look.

[Sharkn20]

It's Folland, and I actually think getting him for a 5th, with full salary paid is a steal. He's 33 and probably started his decline but it was only four seasons ago he hit .361/.879. His fielding stats this season aren't terrible. He hasn't been hurt. I think he needs a change of scenery. If I didn't already have three RH catchers on BLB salaries, I'd probably give him a look.

Feel free to, it doesn't matter where do u play him, everyone does well in Seattle anyways and would be surrounded of studs

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[funclown]

Not knowing the answer to this may be why I'm so bad at this game, but what is overall zone rating?

I don't know the calc on how they come up with zone rating, but in these new versions playing good D is a major thing and quick summary its basically how much ground your D guy can cover. Guys who can't cover ground usually have "range" of 45 or lower. So obviously your don't want a guy playing centerfield if he's slow. Same goes for SS & 2B. 3rd base you can get away with some amount of range loss as is LF & 1B. While not everything to a guys overall defense, buts a MAJOR part of it.

Hope this helped. And YES your defense has been terrible for years now. Its a balance, do you sacrifice hitting versus defense? How much of an affect does have a poor infield affecting your groundball pitchers? On and on and on.

[Guest]

I don't know the calc on how they come up with zone rating, but in these new versions playing good D is a major thing and quick summary its basically how much ground your D guy can cover. Guys who can't cover ground usually have "range" of 45 or lower. So obviously your don't want a guy playing centerfield if he's slow. Same goes for SS & 2B. 3rd base you can get away with some amount of range loss as is LF & 1B. While not everything to a guys overall defense, buts a MAJOR part of it.

Hope this helped. And YES your defense has been terrible for years now. Its a balance, do you sacrifice hitting versus defense? How much of an affect does have a poor infield affecting your groundball pitchers? On and on and on.

I’d also add that zone rating really isn’t that important or indicative of a catcher’s defensive prowess. CS% is huge, as are game calling and pitch framing, which obviously aren’t quantifiable in this context.

[Sharkn20]

I�d also add that zone rating really isn�t that important or indicative of a catcher�s defensive prowess. CS% is huge, as are game calling and pitch framing, which obviously aren�t quantifiable in this context.

Calling and framing are included in Catchers ability, learn a little bit before missleading other GMs.

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