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I've reached out to a few GMs about sharing tips and strategies to the masses. I think a lot of these things could be general knowledge but even one GM being left in the dark makes it worth it. IMO, the more competitive the league is, or parity, the healthier the BLB will going forward. And I hope I don't come off like I've got it all figured out, because I'm just as guilty on this topic as any of the examples. Without further adieu....
Pitching Injuries
The past few seasons I've started to notice a trend with pitching injuries. Almost always arm/shoulder related. Specifically younger players that have yet to reach their full potential, often still in their early 20's, if not younger for HS players. I think I first took notice when one of my own promising arms got hurt and I tried to understand why or what could I have done differently to prevent it. What it really boils down to is too large of an increase in innings year to year to year. Often, the injury happens the year AFTER the large workload increase. I don't really follow MLB anymore so I don't know if this is a trend there. I also don't know if this is something just in the newer versions of OOTP. But the short of it, we are giving our young pitchers too many innings. Starter or Reliever.
My first example is Seattle CL Ian McManus - http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/blb/...ayer_4052.html
No injuries in college. Thought I was getting a future All-Star closer. He broke his arm just two months into his minor league career. My analysis, his innings increase from just 18.1 in 2022 to 39.2 in 2023, before the injury. Just 20 innings might not seem like a lot, but it's more than double his previous career high and he's only a 20 stamina type. Since then, he's been injury prone. Had a career ending injury at 27 this year.
Now, the next few examples I'm going to leave nameless and without a link. I'm not trying to make anyone look bad. Notice the similar trend in increased workload jumps and the fact that the multi-month injury is always arm/shoulder
Example 2: SP, 21-years-old, no college injuries, drafted during the 2029 season which is why you see the major innings increase
2026: 41 IP
2027: 40 IP
2028: 35 IP
2029: 93 IP (first career injury, 6 weeks, elbow)
2030: 74 IP (shoulder, 5 months)
Example 3: SP, 29-years-old, no collegiate injuries, drafting 2020
2020: 56 IP
2021: 120 IP
2022: 150 IP
2023: 21 IP (12 months shoulder, then 10 months setback)
Example 4: SP, 22-years-old, drafted 2028
2027: 54 IP
2028: 125 IP (one day to day)
2029: 198 IP
2030: 81 IP (two injuries, one three months shoulder, season cut short)
Example 5: SP, 25-years-old, no collegiate injuries, drafted 2025
2024: 49 IP
2025: 82 IP
2026: 165 IP
2027: 12 IP (UCL, 12 months)
Example 6: SP, 22-years-old, only day to day injuries in college lasting 1-5 days, drafted 2028
2027: 47 IP
2028: 88 IP (two injuries, two weeks)
2029: 89 IP (six injuries, with the final being three months cutting season short)
2030: 85 IP (three injuries, with the final being four months cutting this year short)
Example 7: SP, 20-years-old, only a day to day for 4 in HS, drafted 2027
2026: 41 IP
2027: 105 IP
2028: 32 IP (Before UCL, 12 months cut year short)
Example 8: SP, 24-years-old, no collegiate injuries, drafted 2026
2025: 53 IP
2026: 130 IP
2027: 61 IP (Before shoulder injury, six months)
Example 9: SP, 26-years-old, no college injuries, drafted 2024
2024: 54 IP
2025: 104 IP
2026: 180 IP
2027: 25 IP (12 month shoulder)
*Note none of the above innings include Spring Training and/or Post-Season innings pitched.
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Now, I could be completely wrong here because: A.) injuries just kind of happen in OOTP. I'm sure if you saved the sim, and ran it 10 different times, the injuries won't be anything close to the same in those ten sims. I could also be wrong here because B.) There are plenty of pitchers who follow that same innings trajectory and have been never hurt. And also, C.) You are almost always increasing a pitchers innings the further they go in development because once they are drafted their is a second minor league season and a lot get called up to the BLB in their first 2-3 seasons, which has a longer season. I get all that. But take a look at any of your pitching prospects that you have had over the years that you were devastated by an injury... I would bet their is a major increase in innings year to year within a short time span before the major injury and I would bet it's related to their arm/shoulder as opposed to the back, legs, head, etc.
Feel free to laugh this off as Pat having too much time when his daughter is down for her nap or just wanting some attention. Typical Pat. Hey, I very well could be completely wrong. But I definitely run my organization differently the past few seasons and haven't seen the time of young pitchers getting hurt that others have. A few things I do that I would suggest:
1. When getting a pitcher via the draft, take it slow. Whether that is by only giving them a few starts to finish out the rookie league or the single-A season or have them on a strict pitch count. Remember, having a player get 50 IP for two straight years in NCAA doesn't seem like a lot, but then piling on an additional 50+ is more than double their previous high.
2. Use six-man rotations in the minors if you can. This will give your pitchers a handful less starts at every level.
3. Use pitch counts.
4. Feel free to skip starts. You might have a break in your Double-A scheduling, why not give the kid a week off?
5. Remember that post-season innings and Spring Training innings add up. It's pretty easy to forget that a SP could get 20+ IP in Spring Training and another 20+ from the minor league post-season.
6. Pay attention to where they have been hurt. This is more a draft strategy topic but I think it works here too. If you have a player who has two arm injuries in college versus a leg and an oblique, the second player is probably a better bet to stay healthy.
7. I really don't think those extra say 20 IP or so a year that you could shave off are going to slow their development at all.
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My most recent top SP draft pick is Robby Umlauf. http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/blb/...ayer_2129.html
He had two collegiate injuries and only have 60 IP in CCBL. After drafting him I gave him just two more starts, and a few relief appearances, adding just 20 innings in the minors post draft. The following year, 73 IP total for the year. Then 90. This year he's at 65 at the midway point, and I didn't pitch him in Spring Training.
Maybe my theory is completely wrong. Maybe all it's all just dice rolls and all I've figured out or accomplished is that by throwing less innings you lower your chance of being hurt. I just know a lot GMs have been really upset about losing pitching prospects and I feel like every time I've looked recently, the pitcher follows this trend.
Pitching Injuries
The past few seasons I've started to notice a trend with pitching injuries. Almost always arm/shoulder related. Specifically younger players that have yet to reach their full potential, often still in their early 20's, if not younger for HS players. I think I first took notice when one of my own promising arms got hurt and I tried to understand why or what could I have done differently to prevent it. What it really boils down to is too large of an increase in innings year to year to year. Often, the injury happens the year AFTER the large workload increase. I don't really follow MLB anymore so I don't know if this is a trend there. I also don't know if this is something just in the newer versions of OOTP. But the short of it, we are giving our young pitchers too many innings. Starter or Reliever.
My first example is Seattle CL Ian McManus - http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/blb/...ayer_4052.html
No injuries in college. Thought I was getting a future All-Star closer. He broke his arm just two months into his minor league career. My analysis, his innings increase from just 18.1 in 2022 to 39.2 in 2023, before the injury. Just 20 innings might not seem like a lot, but it's more than double his previous career high and he's only a 20 stamina type. Since then, he's been injury prone. Had a career ending injury at 27 this year.
Now, the next few examples I'm going to leave nameless and without a link. I'm not trying to make anyone look bad. Notice the similar trend in increased workload jumps and the fact that the multi-month injury is always arm/shoulder
Example 2: SP, 21-years-old, no college injuries, drafted during the 2029 season which is why you see the major innings increase
2026: 41 IP
2027: 40 IP
2028: 35 IP
2029: 93 IP (first career injury, 6 weeks, elbow)
2030: 74 IP (shoulder, 5 months)
Example 3: SP, 29-years-old, no collegiate injuries, drafting 2020
2020: 56 IP
2021: 120 IP
2022: 150 IP
2023: 21 IP (12 months shoulder, then 10 months setback)
Example 4: SP, 22-years-old, drafted 2028
2027: 54 IP
2028: 125 IP (one day to day)
2029: 198 IP
2030: 81 IP (two injuries, one three months shoulder, season cut short)
Example 5: SP, 25-years-old, no collegiate injuries, drafted 2025
2024: 49 IP
2025: 82 IP
2026: 165 IP
2027: 12 IP (UCL, 12 months)
Example 6: SP, 22-years-old, only day to day injuries in college lasting 1-5 days, drafted 2028
2027: 47 IP
2028: 88 IP (two injuries, two weeks)
2029: 89 IP (six injuries, with the final being three months cutting season short)
2030: 85 IP (three injuries, with the final being four months cutting this year short)
Example 7: SP, 20-years-old, only a day to day for 4 in HS, drafted 2027
2026: 41 IP
2027: 105 IP
2028: 32 IP (Before UCL, 12 months cut year short)
Example 8: SP, 24-years-old, no collegiate injuries, drafted 2026
2025: 53 IP
2026: 130 IP
2027: 61 IP (Before shoulder injury, six months)
Example 9: SP, 26-years-old, no college injuries, drafted 2024
2024: 54 IP
2025: 104 IP
2026: 180 IP
2027: 25 IP (12 month shoulder)
*Note none of the above innings include Spring Training and/or Post-Season innings pitched.
----
Now, I could be completely wrong here because: A.) injuries just kind of happen in OOTP. I'm sure if you saved the sim, and ran it 10 different times, the injuries won't be anything close to the same in those ten sims. I could also be wrong here because B.) There are plenty of pitchers who follow that same innings trajectory and have been never hurt. And also, C.) You are almost always increasing a pitchers innings the further they go in development because once they are drafted their is a second minor league season and a lot get called up to the BLB in their first 2-3 seasons, which has a longer season. I get all that. But take a look at any of your pitching prospects that you have had over the years that you were devastated by an injury... I would bet their is a major increase in innings year to year within a short time span before the major injury and I would bet it's related to their arm/shoulder as opposed to the back, legs, head, etc.
Feel free to laugh this off as Pat having too much time when his daughter is down for her nap or just wanting some attention. Typical Pat. Hey, I very well could be completely wrong. But I definitely run my organization differently the past few seasons and haven't seen the time of young pitchers getting hurt that others have. A few things I do that I would suggest:
1. When getting a pitcher via the draft, take it slow. Whether that is by only giving them a few starts to finish out the rookie league or the single-A season or have them on a strict pitch count. Remember, having a player get 50 IP for two straight years in NCAA doesn't seem like a lot, but then piling on an additional 50+ is more than double their previous high.
2. Use six-man rotations in the minors if you can. This will give your pitchers a handful less starts at every level.
3. Use pitch counts.
4. Feel free to skip starts. You might have a break in your Double-A scheduling, why not give the kid a week off?
5. Remember that post-season innings and Spring Training innings add up. It's pretty easy to forget that a SP could get 20+ IP in Spring Training and another 20+ from the minor league post-season.
6. Pay attention to where they have been hurt. This is more a draft strategy topic but I think it works here too. If you have a player who has two arm injuries in college versus a leg and an oblique, the second player is probably a better bet to stay healthy.
7. I really don't think those extra say 20 IP or so a year that you could shave off are going to slow their development at all.
---
My most recent top SP draft pick is Robby Umlauf. http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/blb/...ayer_2129.html
He had two collegiate injuries and only have 60 IP in CCBL. After drafting him I gave him just two more starts, and a few relief appearances, adding just 20 innings in the minors post draft. The following year, 73 IP total for the year. Then 90. This year he's at 65 at the midway point, and I didn't pitch him in Spring Training.
Maybe my theory is completely wrong. Maybe all it's all just dice rolls and all I've figured out or accomplished is that by throwing less innings you lower your chance of being hurt. I just know a lot GMs have been really upset about losing pitching prospects and I feel like every time I've looked recently, the pitcher follows this trend.
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