Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Pat's Playoff Preview - 2024

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Pat's Playoff Preview - 2024

    It's been awhile since I've done a good preview. In the newer versions of OOTP, including the one we are one, the game actually does a good job of previewing the matchups very well with stats, head to head, etc. Which in a way, makes writing a preview a bit easier. This year I'm posting the betting odds in Vegas, reasons why each team will win or won't win, a spot for predictions (interactive!) and maybe a few more goodies if I have time. Hope you enjoy!

    Odds in Las Vegas as of September 30th:

    DC - 5/7
    PAW - 9/2
    TOR - 10/2
    SEA - 7/1
    KC - 8/1
    PIT - 5/2
    PHX - 15/14
    IND - 18/11
    MAI - 25/16
    CAR - 25/11
    BAL - 30/11
    DVS - 40/10

    ***

    (Favorites)

    WASHINGTON BATS washington_bats.png


    Why they will win: Washington has the best hitter (Yonke) and the best pitcher (Carroll). They have the #1 overall seed. They are 1st in the IL in ERA and 2nd in runs.

    Washington also feels "due" for a Championship. They haven't won since 2012 but have made the post-season 11 of the last 12 seasons. The Bats longest Brewmaster's drought was 1988-2002, the steroid era in Virginia.

    Why they won't win: The Bats are without arguably their #2 SP (Villasenor) and are still currently searching for their #4 SP for a potential Championship Round and Brewmaster's. The lineup strikes out a fair amount (6th in IL) and is subpar (7th) defensively.

    Are they cursed? Since GM Matthew Pittman took over they have been unable to get the monkey off their back. They haven't even made the Brewmaster's since 2014, despite 99+ wins each of the last five seasons.
    ---


    PAWTUCKET PATRIOTS pawtucket_patriots.png


    Why they will win: The Patriots are the DL's best team by using Shark's winning formula he invented before anyone had thought of it. Pawtucket is 1st in the DL in ERA and defense.

    Funclown magic. From 2010-2018, the Patriots won 101+ every year but one and took home four Brewmaster's. This was the first season since then they have "snuck into the playoffs."

    Why they won't win: Despite finishing 5th in runs in the DL, the Patriots don't hit or run very well. They are patient hitters (T-3rd in walks) and swing for the fences (2nd in HR). They finished 10th in hits and 8th in stolen bases. When the pitching gets better in the playoffs, they might struggle to get key hits or be able to advance runners.

    The Patriots don't strike anyone out (9th in the DL). The Patriots rely on their defense but when the lineups are better, will they be able to dial up a strikeout when needed?
    ---


    TORONTO CANADIANS
    toronto_canadians.png



    Why they will win: They have a lot of playoff experience. This has been mainly the same "core" since 2019, and they have not only made the dance every year but made the Brewmaster's twice and were the last DL team to win it all.

    They are also the most balanced DL team (3rd in runs/4th in ERA). The Canadians are not known as a deep team but full of stars. They have four of the top 40 players, tied with Washington for the most in the league.

    Why they won't win: Toronto plays bad defense, as per usual. 9th in the DL.

    They don't take walks. 10th in the DL. They are average against RHSP.

    SEATTLE PILOTS
    seattle_pilots.png


    Why they will win: Seattle has the best lineup in the Import League, 1st place in almost all leading categories. Nieto, Urmson, Diewert and Ulloa all have .875+ OPS and 20+ HR.

    They also have consistently won with a monthly low winning percentage of .536.

    Why they won't win: The lineup strikes out a ton (7th in the IL), the pitching staff gives free passes (10th in IL) and they play little to no defense (10th in the IL). They also have no speed (11th IL SB).

    Oh and they have gone 2-10 against Washington, in a potential ILCS.
    ---

    KANSAS CITY COMETS
    kansas_city_comets.png


    Why they will win: The most HRs and XBH of any team in baseball. The lineup is dangerous no matter who is on the mound.

    They are hungry after last seasons early exit. The team that won 116 games lost in the DLDS. I'm sure they have learned their lesson.

    Why they won't win: Injuries. The Tornado is out 1-2 more weeks. Pelloni three weeks. And Burkhead will miss the playoffs. Can they stay healthy when it matters?

    The pitching is fairly average (7th in DL ERA), the defense as well (7th in DL efficiency) and they have little to no speed (13th in SB).
    ---
    Last edited by Pat; 01-01-2018, 04:15 PM.
    Wilmington Wildcats- 2057-
    Seattle Pilots- 2017-2041
    Washington Bats - 1979-2013

  • #2
    No Phoenix... interesting.
    Death Valley Scorpions (2003-Present)
    Division Champs '05 '07 '08 '11 '13 '14 '15 '16 '19
    IL WC '09 '10 '12 '17

    IL Champs '13 '16 '19
    Stout Slugger '08 (Jones) '15 (McCarley)
    Last Call '08 (Manning)
    New Brew '08 (Pulido)
    Desert Legends
    #33 Danny Salcedo ('15) #30 Colin Cash ('16) #32 Brendan Lindsey ('17)



    Comment


    • #3
      Nice work, Pat.

      You're the one who taught me my #1 rule for playoff predictions: Never bet against the Bats.

      (Always remember: Goats love Pizza.)

      I'd be surprised to see one of the Wild Card clubs come out of the Import League. Of course anything can happen in short playoff series, but the gap between the division winners (especially Washington) and the rest looks wider than usual.

      As for the Domestic League, I'm not sure any of the top four finishing clubs is meaningfully better than the rest. Home field advantage plays to the division winners' benefits, of course. Kansas City might be in for a hard road with their lineup, which carried them this year, depleted by late injuries. Pawtucket looks like a balanced club built for postseason success.
      Maine Guides
      General Manager: 1994-2032, 2049-Pres.
      Ale Division Champions: 2000, 2001, 2008, 2009, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2053
      Domestic League Champions: 2006, 2011, 2018, 2028, 2029, 2031, 2052
      Brewmaster's Cup Champions: 2006, 2018, 2028, 2031
      8 Bermeo | 9 Hiraki | 10 Davila | 15 Kubota | 17 O'Moore | 18 Sanchez | 21 Cleary | 26 Memmoli
      30 Suarez | 32 Gutierrez | 34 Suarez | 45 Corrigan | 47 Hernandez | 66 Alvarez

      Comment


      • #4


        (Non-Favorites)

        PITTSBURGH MILLERS


        Why they will win: 1st in runs scored, 1st in steals, 1st in walks. The lineup does it all, top to bottom.

        Why they won't win it: The bullpen is shaky (11th in DL), the defense is poor (13th in DL) and the GM has already gone on record to say they are one and done.
        ---

        PHOENIX ROADRUNNERS



        Why they will win: History. The Roadrunners have gone to three straight Brews, winning two, but this year they have Dave Seibert.

        Why they won't win it: No CF. Dusty Black isn't the best player on the roster.... He's not even the best OF. But the injury has forced them to play Manny Becerra to start in CF where he has been dreadful at making plays.
        ---

        INDIANAPOLIS RACERS


        Why they will win it: They are a poor man's Pawtucket. They have great pitching (2nd in DL) and defense (3rd). If they can keep the game close, they could be in line for an upset or two.

        Why they won't win it: Only an average lineup, 6th in the DL and they just lost their leadoff hitter Ian Schneider for three weeks.
        ---


        Wilmington Wildcats- 2057-
        Seattle Pilots- 2017-2041
        Washington Bats - 1979-2013

        Comment


        • #5
          (Long Shots)
          MAINE GUIDES


          Why they will win it: History. Maine has more non-steroid Brewmater's of any team in BLB history. They recently won it in 2018 with a Wild Card team that finished 3rd in the division. They are very balanced with a great outfield.

          Why they won't win it: Lack of top tier pitching. The positional strength ranks the rotation 13th and the bullpen 15th. Almost every night out, the Guides will have the worse pitchers on the mound, starting or relieving.
          ---

          CAROLINA TOBS

          Why they will win it: Speed and pitching. First in the IL in stolen bases, the Tobs like to gamble on the base paths. They also have the 2nd best ERA behind DC.

          Why they won't win it: Lack of hitting. The Tobs still score (5th in IL) by being aggressive on the bases. However, they finished 12th in the IL in XBH and they will have to rely on their speed to score.
          ---

          BALTIMORE BULLDOGS


          Why they will win it: Destiny. Much has been said about the season turnaround in Baltimore....but let's talk about it some more. Most teams would have sold their veterans and "tanked" according to Shark. Baltimore turned it around and are one of the hottest teams in the BLB.

          Why they won't win it: Youth will be served. This lineup is very, very young. Their two best hitters are 19 and 23. A bit scary for the future but unlikely to succeed against veteran pitching.
          ---

          DEATH VALLEY SCORPIONS


          Why they will win it: Because the BLB god's have a sense of humor. DVS had playoff teams in 14/16 years, but never won it all. Some of them were the favorites. This year, Death Valley has arguably the weakest squad in the field, so wouldn't that be ironic. This team boasts a great bullpen and defense, both 2nd in the IL.

          Why they won't win it: This team has a great mix of veterans and youngsters but lacks superstar talent. Every series they are in would be an upset.
          ---


          (Predictions) TOMORROW AFTER MATCHUPS DETERMINED

          (More stuff) IF THE BABY ALLOWS
          Wilmington Wildcats- 2057-
          Seattle Pilots- 2017-2041
          Washington Bats - 1979-2013

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by umd View Post
            No Phoenix... interesting.
            This is just Vegas. My predictions might be quite a bit different than this...

            But I think them losing their CF was devastating. They have the pitching and hitting to win a series or two, but hard to win a 7-game series with that huge of a hole in your defense.

            Originally posted by TheLetterZ View Post
            Nice work, Pat.

            You're the one who taught me my #1 rule for playoff predictions: Never bet against the Bats.

            (Always remember: Goats love Pizza.)

            I'd be surprised to see one of the Wild Card clubs come out of the Import League. Of course anything can happen in short playoff series, but the gap between the division winners (especially Washington) and the rest looks wider than usual.

            As for the Domestic League, I'm not sure any of the top four finishing clubs is meaningfully better than the rest. Home field advantage plays to the division winners' benefits, of course. Kansas City might be in for a hard road with their lineup, which carried them this year, depleted by late injuries. Pawtucket looks like a balanced club built for postseason success.
            2012 was a magical run.

            I agree on the IL....but surprises are the only certainty in the BLB playoffs. I'll post more once we can do predictions, but I'm actually pretty high on Phoenix, Carolina and Baltimore to make some noise in the IL. But to me, it feels like DC, and a bunch of solid teams. DC is the furthest from the pack we have seen in the IL in a long, long time. Probably since Clay-Era, honestly.

            As for DL....it feels wide open. Pawtucket is the favorite but I wouldn't be surprised from an early exit. KC was one of the best we have seen and they lost in the Divisional Round by California...who didn't even make the Brew themselves. I think you might see something similar this year.

            Without going too far into predictions.... IL feels like DC and the DL feels like fair game.

            Wilmington Wildcats- 2057-
            Seattle Pilots- 2017-2041
            Washington Bats - 1979-2013

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Pat View Post
              I agree on the IL....but surprises are the only certainty in the BLB playoffs. I'll post more once we can do predictions, but I'm actually pretty high on Phoenix, Carolina and Baltimore to make some noise in the IL. But to me, it feels like DC, and a bunch of solid teams. DC is the furthest from the pack we have seen in the IL in a long, long time. Probably since Clay-Era, honestly.

              As for DL....it feels wide open. Pawtucket is the favorite but I wouldn't be surprised from an early exit. KC was one of the best we have seen and they lost in the Divisional Round by California...who didn't even make the Brew themselves. I think you might see something similar this year.

              Without going too far into predictions.... IL feels like DC and the DL feels like fair game.
              It's all probabilistic here. Of course Carolina or Baltimore or Phoenix could smack Washington. But I think even a five-game series is a 60/40 advantage for Washington.
              Maine Guides
              General Manager: 1994-2032, 2049-Pres.
              Ale Division Champions: 2000, 2001, 2008, 2009, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2053
              Domestic League Champions: 2006, 2011, 2018, 2028, 2029, 2031, 2052
              Brewmaster's Cup Champions: 2006, 2018, 2028, 2031
              8 Bermeo | 9 Hiraki | 10 Davila | 15 Kubota | 17 O'Moore | 18 Sanchez | 21 Cleary | 26 Memmoli
              30 Suarez | 32 Gutierrez | 34 Suarez | 45 Corrigan | 47 Hernandez | 66 Alvarez

              Comment


              • #8
                Tobs I think won the season series over the Bats.
                CAROLINA TOBS

                Bock Division Champs - '99, '01, '10, '11, '12, '13

                Brewmasters - '11

                Comment


                • #9
                  PREDICTIONS
                  (feel free to post your own)

                  Phoenix over Death Valley (3)
                  Maine over Toronto (3)
                  Baltimore over Carolina (2)
                  Indianapolis over Pittsburgh (3)
                  Wilmington Wildcats- 2057-
                  Seattle Pilots- 2017-2041
                  Washington Bats - 1979-2013

                  Comment


                  • #10

                    DVS over Phoenix (3)
                    TORONTO over Maine (3)
                    BALTIMORE over Carolina (2)
                    PITTSBURGH over Indy (3)


                    Baltimore Bulldogs - BLB since '84
                    - Porter Champs: '92, '93, '97, '98, '01, '03, '06, '08, '12
                    - Playoffs: '92, '93, '97, '98, '99, '01, '03, '06, '08, '12, '13, '14, '15, '16
                    - Brewmaster's Cup: '01

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      DVS over Phoenix (3)
                      MAINE over Toronto (3)
                      BALTIMORE over Carolina (2)
                      INDY over Pittsburgh (3)
                      GM California Kodiaks 2014 - Present
                      Brewmaster's Cup Champions 2036, 2043


                      GM Edmonton Herd 1987 - Present
                      Brewmaster's Bowl Champions - 1990


                      GM Toronto Arenas 1979/80 - 1982/1983
                      Brewmaster's Ice Cup Champions 1979/80

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Phoenix in 2
                        Maine in 3
                        Carolina in 3
                        Indianapolis in 3

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Phoenix in 3
                          Toronto in 3
                          Baltimore in 2
                          Pitt in 3
                          PAWTUCKET PATRIOTS
                          Brewmaster's Cup Champions 2010, 2013, 2014, 2016
                          DL Champions 91, 03, 04, 10, 13, 14**,16,17
                          Ale Champions 92, 93, 94, 02, 03, 04, 10, 11, 13, 14**, 16, 17, 18
                          Wildcard 91, 95, 12


                          ** Partial credit. Ran in Expo mode.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I don't see us being any kind of overwhelming favorite. Maybe a slight favorite in the IL, but that's about it. But that hasn't really worked out for us recently.

                            As for the WC:

                            Phoenix in 2
                            Baltimore in 3
                            Toronto in 2
                            Pittsburgh in 3
                            Washington Bats, 2013-

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Pat View Post
                              PREDICTIONS
                              (feel free to post your own)

                              Phoenix over Death Valley (3)
                              Maine over Toronto (3)
                              Baltimore over Carolina (2)
                              Indianapolis over Pittsburgh (3)
                              1/4 not my best...

                              Death Valley over Seattle (4)
                              Washington over Baltimore (5)
                              Pawtucket over Pittsburgh (5, bottom of 14th)
                              Kansas City over Toronto (4)
                              Wilmington Wildcats- 2057-
                              Seattle Pilots- 2017-2041
                              Washington Bats - 1979-2013

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X