BLB midseason coverage: Your Take

[Delandis]

I think were just looking for scouts to be more aligned on they're views. The players there....Its find if kids pop into the top 100 out of the blue. Looking at that list I doubt any owner had insight on a few of them hitting. It was blind luck no matter what that GM says. Its more about agreement so when you sit down and try to make a trade your more on the same page. In the real world scouts generally have alot of the same reports. (again with smaller varation)

To me, it doesn't seem that the issue is with scouting model.

The issue is with our desire (or lack thereof) to take risks. We don't want risk anything to insure we get "full value" on trades. We all know who our good prospects are regardless of what OSA says, the problem is that we don't want to part with them. EVERY SINGLE trade talk that I've had in the last two years, C.J. Stripling was mentioned as a piece as if my scout doesn't know he'll probably be pretty good. But since he's not on the Top 100, everyone holds out the inkling of hope that my scout overlooked him.

There is nothing wrong with scouting. If you put money into scouting and actually listen to the scout's recommendation in game, you'll do fine.

Now, when we decide that actual production in the BLB is worth the risk of losing potential production by prospects that we currently have in our minors, then the league will change. But after 40 years in the league, I just don't see that happening regardless of what scouting parameters we set.

[umd]

This is a risk averse league.

[Pat]

I'm not sure what we are looking for from the scouts' perspectives. Are we becoming a league where we want more transparency?

As I see it, there absolutely should be a wide variance of opinions on non-established players. Are we looking for every scout to have the same opinion on non-established players? If so, then yes we should turn off scouting.

In this league, it is very rare that there are questionable picks on the 15-20 players of our drafts. That tells me that there isn't that much of an issue of scouting variance when it comes to top end prospects. Furthermore, the Top Prospects list is prepared by OSA, which the manually explicitly states is "understaffed" and rather unreliable.

Here's a quick and dirty list of the Top 10 Batters Under 27 sorted by WAR and their draft position that I look at from time to time.

D. Owens 1st pick
D. Webber 9th pick
D. Seibert 23rd pick
F. Fredrick 38th pick
Tom Lewis 94th pick
J. Rowles 61st pick
I. Schneider 63rd pick
Z. Compton 6th pick
J. Skolfield 43rd pick
T. Pelloni 15th pick

Now that is only four guys picked in the 1st round. Maybe I'm confused but, isn't that what we want to happen?

Not sure why we are going 27 or under and using a half seasons of WAR, but...

Top 20 players list:

Surmier - 2nd
O'Hearn - 3rd
Yonke - 26th
Owens - 1st
Davila - 7th
Fredrick - 38th
Lewis - 94th
Piekarski - 1st
Morla - 1st
Jackson - 9th
Douglas - 8th
Healey - 7th
Murillo - 2nd
McPherson - 1st
Suares - 13th
Umrson - 82nd
Gray - 3rd
Flores - 9th
Knott - 17th
Edwards - 29th

-Eight of the top 20 were drafted in the top three picks - 40%
-13 of the top 20 were drafted in the top nine picks - 65%
-15 of the top 20 were drafted in the top 17 picks - 75%
-18 of the top 20 were drafted in the top 29 picks - 90% (with the other two being selected in the 3rd round and 4th round)

Top 20 pitchers list:
McDade - 2nd
Carroll - 2nd
Mitchell - 6th
Evans 3rd
Osborne 33rd
Engstrom 2nd
Robertson 4th
Fajardo 1st
Teel 7th
Syverston 27th
Baase 12th
Kopp 36th
Orbon 46th
Driggs UDFA
Talley 2nd
Domingues ITL FA
Stone 4th
Harmony 2nd
Ballard 31st
Daley 3rd

-10 of the Top 20 were top 3 picks - 50%
-13 of the top 20 were drafted in the top seven picks - 65%
-18 of the Top 20 were drafted in the first 46 picks - 80% - The only two to not went undrafted (luck) and an international FA.
-Besides Driggs and Dominues, the only players on the Top 20 list who were drafted outside of the top seven picks, were Osbourne, Syverston, Kopp, Orbon and Ballard. Four of those five pitch in some of the most pitcher friendly parks in the BLB (NY/DAL/WC) and the other, Syverston, I think is actually debuting on the Top 20 if I'm not mistaken this season at 30+. Or maybe at least this high up.

----

Of the top 40 BLB players, 45% were top three picks and 65% were drafted top nine. Two of 40 were drafted in the 3rd or 4th round. None in the 5th or later. One undrafted. One international FA. Only eight of 40 were 2nd round picks.

I'm not sure what this proves in relation to scouting, but it is interesting.

[Delandis]

Not sure why we are going 27 or under and using a half seasons of WAR, but...

Top 20 players list:

Surmier - 2nd
O'Hearn - 3rd
Yonke - 26th
Owens - 1st
Davila - 7th
Fredrick - 38th
Lewis - 94th
Piekarski - 1st
Morla - 1st
Jackson - 9th
Douglas - 8th
Healey - 7th
Murillo - 2nd
McPherson - 1st
Suares - 13th
Umrson - 82nd
Gray - 3rd
Flores - 9th
Knott - 17th
Edwards - 29th

-Eight of the top 20 were drafted in the top three picks - 40%
-13 of the top 20 were drafted in the top nine picks - 65%
-15 of the top 20 were drafted in the top 17 picks - 75%
-18 of the top 20 were drafted in the top 29 picks - 90% (with the other two being selected in the 3rd round and 4th round)

Top 20 pitchers list:
McDade - 2nd
Carroll - 2nd
Mitchell - 6th
Evans 3rd
Osborne 33rd
Engstrom 2nd
Robertson 4th
Fajardo 1st
Teel 7th
Syverston 27th
Baase 12th
Kopp 36th
Orbon 46th
Driggs UDFA
Talley 2nd
Domingues ITL FA
Stone 4th
Harmony 2nd
Ballard 31st
Daley 3rd

-10 of the Top 20 were top 3 picks - 50%
-13 of the top 20 were drafted in the top seven picks - 65%
-18 of the Top 20 were drafted in the first 46 picks - 80% - The only two to not went undrafted (luck) and an international FA.
-Besides Driggs and Dominues, the only players on the Top 20 list who were drafted outside of the top seven picks, were Osbourne, Syverston, Kopp, Orbon and Ballard. Four of those five pitch in some of the most pitcher friendly parks in the BLB (NY/DAL/WC) and the other, Syverston, I think is actually debuting on the Top 20 if I'm not mistaken this season at 30+. Or maybe at least this high up.

----

Of the top 40 BLB players, 45% were top three picks and 65% were drafted top nine. Two of 40 were drafted in the 3rd or 4th round. None in the 5th or later. One undrafted. One international FA. Only eight of 40 were 2nd round picks.

I'm not sure what this proves in relation to scouting, but it is interesting.

I'm not using the Top Players List because I'm comparing actual production with no bias or filter through which the game tells us who SHOULD be good. The Top Players List is a snapshot skewed by a popularity modifier.

Current WAR is not.

[Pat]

I'm not using the Top Players List because I'm comparing actual production with no bias or filter through which the game tells us who SHOULD be good. The Top Players List is a snapshot skewed by a popularity modifier.

Current WAR is not.

But why 27 or under? I was confused by that also...

Top 6 current War pitchers:

Carroll 2nd
Mitchell 6th
McDade 2nd
Evans 3rd
Engstrom 2nd
McCormick 4th
.......

[Delandis]

But why 27 or under? I was confused by that also...

Top 6 current War pitchers:

Carroll 2nd
Mitchell 6th
McDade 2nd
Evans 3rd
Engstrom 2nd
McCormick 4th
.......

Because it is a better representation of the recent results of scouting on 16 vs results from 15. These are the guys who will be on the Top Players List as the older guys continue to drop off and what we will more likely be seeing going forward.

[Pat]

Because it is a better representation of the recent results of scouting on 16 vs results from 15. These are the guys who will be on the Top Players List as the older guys continue to drop off and what we will more likely be seeing going forward.

I guess we will have to wait and see.

[Carlos]

Good points. I think I realize my issue is actually resolved as players progress in the minors.

[funclown]

Good points. I think I realize my issue is actually resolved as players progress in the minors.

Its gonna be a few seasons I think, but I truly think the point of the new version is not to rush draft picks into the top 100 unless they are highly touted studs. Least thats my hope. Seems players need to prove themselves a bit.

Again its more bitching about how far out of whack the scouts have becoming versus maybe a more realistic view of smaller differences our scouts use to share. Going from "This hitter gonna be the greatest thing on earth" to " This guys shouldn't have a job filling soda machines" adding into OSA thinking the guy is probably should be a receiver for OSFL??? Again thats just not how the world works.

[funclown]

Just to add. This really was just an add on to the statement in the "Our take" from earlier. As stated, change is good.

[Sharkn20]

I'm kind of late to this, so excuse the interruption on the topic we've switched to.


Bold predictions: What's ahead in the second half and playoffs?

I don't know how bold it is, but I think we'll hang on to the wildcard spot. It feels like all 4 of the Wildcard spots might come out of the Stout this season - that's the way it stacks up right now. We've got a chance to win the division, but it just hasn't come together yet for us. We haven't quite pitched or hit well at the same time for more than one sim at a time.

First-half surprises, disappointments: What players and teams have defied expectations?

Biggest disappointment on my team is CJ Turnbow. I don't know what happened here. He's gone from being a 3.9 and 3.7 WAR player in years 1 and 2 to being below replacement level this year. A seemingly promising young hitter who is pretty much unplayable if I had a better option at 1B. I don't get it. He raked in Spring Training, but this season has been a disaster.

Israel Morales was similarly terrible, but I at least could blame it on age, even if his downturn was really dramatic. He's gone now though.

I'm not sure I've had a positive surprise from any individual player. Carroll has pitched like an elite pitcher this season, but I've expected him to do that for 2+ years now. He's there now.

Midseason awards: Who would take home hardware if the season ended today?

On my team, I think the contenders would be:

Yonke for Stout Slugger. He's the IL leader in WAR (for hitters), but I don't know that he'd get votes over Frederick. If he keeps hitting like he has since the trade, Yonke has an outside chance here.

Mitchell or Carroll for Pale Ale. They are 1-2 in Pitcher WAR in the IL (we have the top 3 overall players in WAR in the IL). They've both been fantastic this season, but it's going to be awfully difficult for anyone to ever beat Pat Evans for this.

Tom Roseboom or Dave Koehler for New Brew. I haven't looked at how this stacks up right now, but they've both been good for me. Roseboom has hit better as the season has gone on, leads the IL in stolen bases and has been ok in center field. Koehler has fallen off in July, but is still having a good rookie year.

Breakout stars: You need to be familiar with these names.

Roseboom. I think he has a chance to be really good.

I realise that the variance from a bad year to a good year is vast... I have also Deshon in my pitching staff who is angry bout his performance. I know he should be a better player, just having a terrible year, same with Grafing who seems never had a good year since started in the BLB, with low babips and not happy at all with his performance... The question here is how long do you want to wait? I made a mistake trading Peller few years ago and I was about to make the same mistake with Kaufman last year... Now I am a more patient manager, I am sure your hitter will rebound in 2021 to become a 3 - 4 WAR again.

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[Sharkn20]

OSA list is not trust worthy

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[PaulC]

That's the issue I have.

I agree with Andrew, I rather have scouts too. But, man, OOTP is not doing itself any justice with the wide variance in opinion. I'm okay if one scout says: "he's a 4th outfielder." And another says, "No, this guy is a starter." That's cool.

But, "This guy has a high ceiling. He's going to win a lot of awards when it's all said and done!" Versus another scout saying, "Probably not a major league player."

Like how? Imagine a scout said Kris Bryant was probably not a major league baseball player.

I'm also okay if the scout's opinion's are that wide apart if we are talking about unknowns. But when first round pick types are being questioned with such variance, there's a problem.

It's just how it is with OOTP, I guess.

It happens all the time.... That's why guys get traded and picked up super late... It's probably more realistic this way actually.

[PaulC]

You need to look at the other side of the scouting coin. GMs who have confidence in taking non OSA risks could be rewarded in trades.

Great point!

[Nemesis]

Bold predictions:
Shark will be on a mission to get back to the show, and I'll do my best to play spoiler. :)

First-half surprises, disappointments:
Surprised at how much better our record is than our Pythagorean prediction says we should be.

Midseason awards:
Top 3 Position Players For Me:
Dylan Owens 1B
Fred Frederick 1B
Dave Webber OF

Pitchers:
Ed Carroll
Jaylen Mitchell
Johnny McDade

Breakout stars:
I dunno!

What's wrong with the BLB?:
I'm not winning yet. Soon enough boys, soon enough.