BLB at the Break - 2018

[Pat]

Last year's thread got some was a great read: http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/foru...ad.php?t=20860

So without further adieu...

Team:
-Who is your MVP?
-Who/what is your biggest surprise?
-Who/what is your biggest disappointment?
-What are your 2nd half expectations?

League:
-Biggest surprise in BLB?
-Best team in each league?
-Award leaders?
-What are your 2nd half predictions?

[Z]

Maine Guides

The Guides' MVP is Voodoo Davila, again, though there's a strong case for him being a co-MVP with Steve Suarez up to this point.

The biggest pleasant surprise is Suarez. At age 39, he has his best batting average and OPS since 2012, when he received a number of Stout Slugger votes.

The biggest disappointment for us is Andy Garcia. Really he's been a disappointment since we acquired him last July. He's batting just .229 since joining our organization.

We're 28-14 since the beginning of June. There's a lot to like here. I expect us to continue playing well, winning 60% of our games or better. A playoff berth should be in the cards.

Brewers League Baseball

The Rogelio Padilla renaissance in Syracuse is probably the thing that surprises me most. His career high in home runs is 18. Well, it's the All-Star Break now and he already has 17 home runs. Not what you expect from a 33 year old infielder.

I think Wilmington and Batavia are the two best clubs so far. Wilmington has such a nasty combination of hitting and starting pitching. If they can figure out their bullpen, they'll be the clear team to beat in my mind. Batavia's in a similar boat in terms of what their strengths and weaknesses are. With the slugging royalty in the middle of their lineup in the form of Lord Stark and Frederick the Great, their lineup is scary.

No comment on the award leaders at this stage.

I know I said I think Batavia is the best club in the IL, so this comment is strange, but I think New York finishes with the best regular season record in the IL and wins the Stout. I think they're about to take the next step.

[Pat]

Team: Seattle Pilots (50-38, 1st in Bock)

-Who is your MVP?
Tough to go against the teams "aces" with both Felipe Vega and Dave "Double D" Dunham having on pace for career years but the Pilots MVP of the first half belongs to CL Robby Scriber. The 34-year-old veteran is currently 3rd amongst all BLB RPs in ERA at 1.24 (behind two at 1.23, with just 29.1 IP each). He's also 4th in saves at 23. T-1st in HR allowed with 0. He's 4th in FIP at 1.76. And 2nd in VORP at 1.6. He has either won (3) or saved (24) more than half of the Pilots wins this season.

What is your biggest surprise?
Having the #1 seed in the IL at the break is a big shock. Not only did the Pilots lose talent in the off-season in IF David Santoyo and RP R.J. Green but this team hasn't avoided injuries quite like last year. The loss of LF Ethan Stuart, 3B Zachary Henne and CF J.R. Lowe has really hurt this teams ability to score runs as the Pilots are now just tied for 9th in the IL in runs. On top of the that, the oldest roster in baseball has numerous players declining in abilities. However, somehow with pitching and defense, the Pilots are 12 games above .500 and have a four game Bock lead.

Who/what is your biggest disappointment?
Losing the $27,000,000 man Stuart until September is a huge blow but the biggest disappointment has to be the drop off of RF Zachary Oldham and last year's team MVP SS Dave Nelson. In 2017, Oldham a career year at the plate hitting .296 with a .786 OPS. While he is likely to win a DWI in RF, his production at the plate (.251/.624) has him on pace for the lowest of his career. Nelson, is also on pace for his worst season with the bat (.251/.700) and after a three-week DL stint he's been in a major funk. He's just three for his last 45 and now has the "fragile" tag. He's also upset he hasn't been given a $100M contract to re-sign.

What are your 2nd half expectations?
With a league leading +4 PYT and three key players on the DL to start the 2nd half, I don't see this group having as much success in the 2nd half. The IL has a lot of talented clubs and five teams are just four games back or less of Seattle for the #1 seed. Also, chemistry in the locker room isn't close to what it was last year, according to my new bench coach. I think we will stay competitive in the playoff race but I don't expect anything higher than the #2 seed. Lucky for us, I think the four most talented teams in the IL reside in the Stout so as long as we can keep Los Alamos, Denver, Death Valley and Windy City in our rear view mirror, we should land a 1st round bye again. #fortunatetoplayinbock

League:
-Biggest surprise in BLB?
A lot teams/players come to mind right away: Toronto's 1B Dylan Owens becoming one of the best hitters in the game at 21, New Orleans 1B Masao Nara on pace for an 8.0 WAR, Los Alamos CF Rod Sedevic becoming one of the leagues best CF in his rookie season, Wilmington SP C.J. Baase contending for DL New Brew and Pale Ale after missing an entire year, Syracuse 3B Rogelio Padilla having a career year at 33, Hartford being 1.5 GB of the #1 DL seed, but my biggest surprise is New York.

In the pre-season, Shavermetrics had them 5th in the Stout behind Batavia, DC, Philly and Baltimore. Not only are they in 1st but how they are doing it might be more impressive. The Knights are currently 4th in the IL in runs scored. To be 4th while playing half of your games at Kennedy Field, the friendliest pitcher park in the league, is pretty outstanding. They were last years IL surprise for most GMs but fell short of a Wild Card spot. I think a lot of people, myself included, considered it a fluke and didn't anticipate them competing in the Stout again this year. But there they are...

-Best team in each league?
Wilmington and Batavia. The Wildcats are 1st in the DL in almost every hitting category but also 1st in ERA and defensive efficiency. They need to figure out the bullpen but this team is scary, scary good right now. They throw an "ace" type almost every night and might have the best lineup in all of baseball. The cherry on top, they are 3rd in the DL in steals, too.

The Muckdogs are similar. Near the top in most IL hitting categories, 1st in starters ERA (3rd overall) but an average defense and subpar bullpen. I think they will figure it out as well, and probably be the IL favorite once the post-season roles around. They didn't pay SP Zack Reeves $30M for nothing.

-Award leaders?
Pale Ale - Dusty Orbon (DAL) / Ian Clark (BAT)
Stout Slugger - Dylan Owens (TOR) / Jimmy Kidwell (PHI)
Last Call - Reynaldo Jimene (DAL) / Robby Scriber (SEA)
Refreshing New Brew - Owens (TOR) / Rod Sedevic (LAM)
GM - Bdub (HAR) / Spectre (NY)

-What are your 2nd half predictions?
DL - Wilmington and Dallas win the divisions, both on the final day of the season. Pawtucket, Morgantown and New Orleans all make Wild Cards. Maine beats Hartford in a Lonnie Coleman game for the final spot.

IL - Batavia and Seattle win the divisions, despite the Pilots finishing 5th in the IL in wins. New York, DC and Philly all make Wild Card rather easily. The season ends with Baltimore, Los Alamos, Denver and Death Valley all tied for the final Wild Card spot, but the game for some reason awards the playoff spot without a Lonnie Coleman game to Denver just because.

[Carlos]

"Any way we can."

I'll write up my own thoughts tomorrow.

[umd]

Team:
-Who is your MVP?

TJ Dunn. He's been a star - back on the Top Player list and rated as the top 1B.

-Who/what is your biggest surprise?

Dunn has really rejuvenated himself but Dave Calvert looks like a potential long term ace this season.

-Who/what is your biggest disappointment?

Pretty much everything I tried to do this offseason to make the playoffs.

-What are your 2nd half expectations?

Probably go .500 and hope that Santana and all the rookies coming up like JR Rhoads can get us enough runs to make a playoff push.

League:
-Biggest surprise in BLB?

I thought Wilmington was a dark horse but they've been pretty damn good.

-Best team in each league?

Wilmington is Pawtucket five seasons ago. Batavia has the best player in the game in Stark. Superstars = titles.

-Award leaders?

Meh, whatever.

-What are your 2nd half predictions?

Things stay pretty steady in both leagues. Nobody makes any significant acquisitions that move the playoff needle.

[Carlos]

Denver BC: 44-44, 6 GB in Bock

-Who is your MVP?
There could be a few options here, but considering the rotation and bullpen have been so good, it's much easier to turn to our backstop. Daniel Collazo, in his second year, has quickly become our best hitter. He leads the squad in every Triple Crown category and has played well-enough defensively to not hurt the team. He's even taken a liking to playing first base versus lefties.

-Who/what is your biggest surprise?
This we can find in the rotation: Mr. Jimmy Lewis. Let's take a walk down memory lane.
Lewis made himself eligible for the famous 2014 draft and was not taken by a team. Denver was instantly a fan of him and signed Lewis to a minor league contract. Needing a left-handed pitcher, we promoted him straight to the big leagues where he proceeded to look every bit the 20-year-old wide-eyed rookie in his 3 innings of "work."

We liked him enough that we wanted to keep him, but did not want to continue paying him above the minor league salary. So we took a risk and released him. Two weeks later, we were able to re-sign him to a new minor league deal. For the next three years, he pitched through every minor league level before finally getting promoted again in 2017. He wasn't amazing, but we still liked him a lot and decided early on in the off-season that we wanted to keep him in the rotation.

Jimmy still had to earn his stripes. We used him in relief as a long reliever and even sent him down one week to make room for a rested reliever (Benites). At first, we only started him at home, using his advantage as a lefty. And now to start the second half, his performance has forced our hand. He will face opponents no matter the park.

The undrafted 24-year-old is 6-4, 2.31 ERA in 89.2 IP. Not a strikeout pitcher, but he keeps the ball in the park and gets the job done.

-Who/what is your biggest disappointment?
Pat Webb appears to be entering the Szymanski-zone. We hope it's not the case of a strong rookie performance turning into a downer of a sophomore slump, but 88 games into the year and Pat hasn't gotten out of it.
Luck (or bad luck, rather) might have something to do with it. Through nearly the same number of games, Webb has drawn more walks and struck out at the same rate. But his power is gone. The balls he put in play to the gaps are now being caught. Perhaps he will return to form in the second half.

-What are your 2nd half expectations?
To put it simply, we expect to continue pitching well and hit even better. I still believe young players have no way to go but up. Griffith appears ready for a second half surge. Healey is comfortable. Verba might have finally finished his Spring Training reps. If Pelloni can continue to improve week-to-week, and we get improved performances from Webb and Szymanski, I have high hopes for this squad.

Playoffs or bust. We're knocking on the door. It's time for these guys to go full throttle.


-Biggest surprise in BLB?
Wilmington. They had a similar season a few years ago but then took a couple steps back. This year, everything is clicking. The draft picks have worked out, the team is winning baseball games. It's a good time.

-Best team in each league?
DL - Wilmington. Too much offense and too much pitching. Pawtucket is definitely a 1B and Hartford is better than funclown thinks. All of the 50+ win teams have a good shot and it's amazing how close things are at the moment.

IL - New York. But Philadelphia is a strong 1B. The IL has been a roller coaster. No team has had a truly consistent path to the break. Seattle seemed to be the only squad and now July is treating them poorly. Only 4 teams are under .500 in the IL. That's intense.

-Award leaders?
Stu Stark belongs in the IL Stout discussion. But true to Brad's earlier comments, Jimmy Kidwell has surprisingly (at least to me) been the best player in the league. I see him turning around his glove in the second half (defensive metrics can be weird to guys sometimes) and leading Philadelphia to the top of the division.

O'Hearn might not like this, but I think Owens is going to steal his award.

Ian Clark, Pat Evans, Felipe Vega. I think it's between the three of them for the IL Pale Ale.

In the DL, Baas is a popular pick because he's a fresh new face. But Engstrom, Orbon and McDade are my popular choices to finish in the top three.

-What are your 2nd half predictions?

In the IL, I think Philadelphia beats out New York for the Stout. I think Los Alamos and Death Valley battle to the finish for the final wild card spot with Denver falling apart in September.

In the DL, Pittsburgh makes a strong run and bumps someone out of the wild card spot while Dallas and Wilmington take their divisions.