BLB at the Break - 2017

[Pat]

This used to be a big hit... Lot of possible things to talk about...

Team:
-Who is your MVP?
-Who/what is your biggest surprise?
-Who/what is your biggest disappointment?
-What are your 2nd half expectations?

League:
-Biggest surprise in BLB?
-Best team in each league?
-Award leaders?
-What are your 2nd half predictions?

[mike]

Team:
-Who is your MVP?
Tie - O'Hearn and Davis
-Who/what is your biggest surprise?
Cleto
-Who/what is your biggest disappointment?
Dave Shooks month of April
-What are your 2nd half expectations?
We continue to play good baseball and win 90+

League:
-Biggest surprise in BLB?
Denver
-Best team in each league?
DVS and PITT
-Award leaders?
The guys that have the best basic stats that you don't have to account for anything else to make it easy on the GMs who don't want to look
-What are your 2nd half predictions?
DVS has like a 20-5 month in August or September

[Pat]

Team:

-Who is your MVP?/-Who/what is your biggest surprise?
This should be pretty obvious but Dave Nelson has been carrying us. I had high hopes when selecting him #1 but never imagined this. He has really cooled off in June, and currently in a slump but with a low work ethic streaks should be expected. Even when he isn't hitting his glove work at 2B/SS is near DWI worthy.

-Who/what is your biggest disappointment?
Anyone who has been following the Pilots has known the struggles of 3B Henne. Last year he hit 37 HRs, had a +12.4 ZR and a 5.2 WAR. This year he is on pace for 17 HRs, -8.2 ZR and -.8. He's not hitting, not fielding and costing $10.5M to suck. He's going to have to start hitting soon or he will likely be benched or traded for another rental.

-What are your 2nd half expectations?
For being 42-33 and two games back in the Bock, my expectations aren't too high. I don't think the division is possible as Death Valley will get on a roll here soon. As for the Wild Card, it's going to come down to the final month. Washington and Batavia have the most talent, while New York and Baltimore continue to win games. Los Alamos is likely to keep pace. I think it will come down to the final week between Seattle, Baltimore and New York with the Pilots losing in a Lonnie Coleman vs. the Bulldogs.

League:

-Biggest surprise in BLB?
In the DL, it's Syracuse OF Ethan Stuart. It wasn't too long ago he was looked upon as deadweight in the same way that Hector Feliciano was. Stuart is still a major injury risk but his performance has made people forget how much he is getting paid. He's on pace for a career high 6.2 WAR and has a chance to reach 40 HR, 120 RBI and win a DWI. This time last year, you could acquire Stuart for a 10th round pick...now? It might take a 1st.

In the IL, it's New York Gabriel Vachon. What an incredible story! Vachon is probably the IL favorite at this point to win Refreshing New Brew and he's 38! Thirty Eight! The Montreal native was an international FA in 2008 signed by the Guides. He then spent four years in the Washington's minor league, to no one's surprise. After being cut in 2014, he was picked up by New York. The switch-hitting short stop made the All-Star game! According to my scout, he has a "3" on contact.

-Best team in each league?
Pawtucket and Philadelphia have the best records. You could make a case there are more talented teams but these two have been the best. Pawtucket is the defending Champions and unless they have a major string of injuries, are heavy favorites to win it all again. They might have the best lineup and best rotation in baseball.

Philadelphia has been the biggest surprise team. They lost Dave Dunham, Ian Brooks and Ethan Bafford to monster FA deals but somehow have the IL's best record. They have the best defense in baseball and have been consistent all year.

-Award leaders?
Stout Sluggers - Jamie McPherson/Stu Stark
Pale Ale - Reeves/Evans
Last Call - Gerlach/Evers
New Brew - House/Vachon
GM - Hank, Brad, Spectre, in no order

-What are your 2nd half predictions?
DL - PAW and DAL win divisions. MOR, PIT and LAD go on cruise control while a bunch of near .500 clubs battle for the final spot. Wilmington sneaks in on the final day of the season.

IL - PHI and DVS win divisions. WAS goes on cruise control while NY, BAL, SEA, BAT and LAM make it interesting down the final weeks. I think Los Alamos and Seattle fall short.

[funclown]

-Best team in each league?
Pawtucket and Philadelphia have the best records. You could make a case there are more talented teams but these two have been the best. Pawtucket is the defending Champions and unless they have a major string of injuries, are heavy favorites to win it all again. They might have the best lineup and best rotation in baseball.

I think we are the most balanced for sure, but unlike previous years our bullpen is the weak spot. Wright, Lauriano, Nash additions (Robles maybe 2nd half?) makes the offense scary.

[funclown]

Team:
-Who is your MVP?

C Dave Piekarski. It's not even close. Probably wins Stout slugger especially if his pace hold.

-Who/what is your biggest surprise?

Maybe Nygaard. This kid has has one hell of a career for a throw in with Mason.

-Who/what is your biggest disappointment?

CL BJ Swisher. Really struggled as a setup guy. Working as a closer now and i know it's ass backwards thinking, but bullpen guys are funny. Certain roles for certain guys.

-What are your 2nd half expectations?

105-110 wins. Pitt is gonna keep us honest, but we platoon a lot regardless in order to keep our injuries low. "Resting" players really happens all the time.

League:
-Biggest surprise in BLB?

NY. I expected Pat to field a competitive team in Seattle. Looking now at NY probably one season away, but pitching this season has been stellar. Always viewed NY as a IL team so it's a nice fit.

-Best team in each league?

Pitt and Philly.

-Award leaders?

Too much effort on a Sunday to dig into it.

-What are your 2nd half predictions?

Paw / Morgantown division

Pitt/ Dallas / LA/ Maine wild cards

DV/ Philly division

Bal/ Seattle/ Was/ NY wild cards

[Spectre]

-Who is your MVP? Ron Osborn- he's been one of the best pitchers in the game and finally has realized his tremendous potential. When this team develops more offensive consistency, he'll win a lot more games.
-Who/what is your biggest surprise? Look up Gabriel Vachon- he entered BLB as an international free agent several years ago and has toiled in the minors. I gave him a shot in ST and he has surpassed all expectations. He's got an OBP of near .400 and made the All-Star team this year. He might be one of the best stories in BLB.
-Who/what is your biggest disappointment? 1B Eric Johnson has been incredibly disappointing. I expected him to be a solid 1B at least against RHP but he has been horrible. The planned platoon of him and Gordie Gugliotta has been an unmitigated disaster. Jon Montalbo will be the starter going forward.
-What are your 2nd half expectations? I'd love to compete for a playoff spot but I want to be realistic. This pitching has been outstanding but losing Fink to a season ending injury really hurt. Micah Poppino and Alejandro Portillo have been incredible.

League:
-Biggest surprise in BLB?
Philly
-Best team in each league?
Philly and Paw

[Delandis]

BLB at the Break - 2017

-Who is your MVP?

Gotta go with Mr. Murillo. We really started rolling once he heated up and we are going to need him to do more of the same to stay competitive in what again, looks like the league's most competitive division.


-Who/what is your biggest surprise?

I was going to say Adrian Pulido, but I'll have to go with former 7th round pick, D.J. LaRossa. The kid is only 21, but he won the job at third base after a stellar start in AAA, and continuing success in the BLB.


-Who/what is your biggest disappointment?
Injuries to the outfield. Last year a late injury to Malik (Roberson) took the wind out of our sails a bit and this year, hits to Southerland, Nichol and Murillo have us continuously scrambling for other options.


-What are your 2nd half expectations?
Frankly, I think we can contend for a home wildcard series. We just have to get through the next 2 weeks of no Murillo relatively unscathed.



-Biggest surprise in BLB?

I think how Philly has seemed to continue running despite making pretty significant off-season changes would be my biggest surprise.

-Best team in each league?

PawtuckeT and DVS still reign supreme in my eyes.


-Award leaders?
I'm lazy. Maybe later.


-What are your 2nd half predictions?

I think DVS' class shines through and they pull away comfortably. I think summer makes things closer than Philly would like (~2-3 game lead) come September but they win the Stout with 1 or 2 games to spare.

In the DL, Pawtucket and Morgantown win their divisions, while Maine gets in as the only team with a losing record.

[Carlos]

Team:
-Who is your MVP?
Rory Lawrence. Also a candidate for Refreshing New Brew in the IL.
Rory didn't get promoted till May and all he's done is earn himself an All-Star birth and put up the highest WAR on the pitching staff, even besting T.J. Davis. We've had nice pitching contributions from Davis and Reed, but Lawrence gives us three solid arms and that's the reason Denver has 34 wins at the break.

-Who/what is your biggest surprise?
C.J. Evers.
For those not following, Evers was drafted in 2002. He spent six years in the minors developing before finally getting promoted in 2008. For the following five years, he was mostly up again and down again, taking the midnight train from Denver to Tuscon. He impressed early but started to struggle and could never grab onto a spot in the pen.
From 2013-2016, Evers was stuck in AAA. Out of options, I was hesitant to promote him for injured players, knowing I'd have to DFA him and hope no one picked him up. Without a key role, he spent his prime years in the minors.
Now 36, he was given a lead bullpen role as the primary middle reliever taking the place of Pat Steffen. Evers has pitched brilliantly in that role. He's thrown a bullpen team high 44 innings with a 1.03 WHIP and .206 OAVG.
His value isn't shared in WAR, but we know what he's done for the pen.

-Who/what is your biggest disappointment?
Robby Szymanski. There's still a second half to fix things, but he hasn't been the player he was last season in his rookie debut. He strikeouts a lot, hasn't hit the ball hard enough and has been a liability on the field. He's only 23 so it's not like I'm giving up on him, but I had hoped he would show improvement in his sophomore year. Instead, he's having that dreaded slump.

-What are your 2nd half expectations?
Honestly, we think we can compete for a playoff spot despite no one even hinting at the possibility. Here's what we know:
1. We fielded a terrible team on purpose* in April. And that had us starting the season 6-14, 8 games under .500. Since then, Denver has played 1 game over .500 with good showings in May and June.
2. In April we were one of the worst run scoring teams, but since the rookies have been promoted, we have slowly improved month-by-month. In June, Denver ranked 5th in runs scored in the IL and first in stolen bases (with a good 19:6 success rate).
3. The starting lineup is made up of 6 rookies and 2 second-year players. There's only one way to go offensively: up.

*When you're in a position of debt, and low budgets, you have to save service days whichever way you can

League:
-Biggest surprise in BLB?
It's New York. One of the worst teams in the DL the past decade, New York has hit the great combination of Ron Osborn turning into the next big league ace and strong off-season free agency / trade acquisitions coming through where needed. It also looks like Oscar Gaxiola has curbed his home run problem and benefited from a good defense.

-Best team in each league?
Pawtucket is still the best team in the entire league, no matter how often funclown tries to downplay the roster.
The Robby English signing has provided Philly the reliability it needs in the bottom portion of a rotation that has always been really top heavy. Plus, Arbini is a magician on the field and his bat doesn't matter when everyone else is playing so well.

-Award leaders?
I haven't really looked into this to really say but it's been hard to ignore Stu Stark in Batavia and Piekarski in Pawtucket. I think Osborn has to be a strong candidate for Pale Ale in the IL and Pat Yahn should be in heavy consideration based on name recognition alone. The IL Pale Ale race is so damn impressive, it's sickening. There are going to be a lot of disappointed GMs.

-What are your 2nd half predictions?
I don't think the byes change. The same teams now, will be the same teams then. I do think Maine and Los Angeles get in but it will be close. You know how I feel about the IL, but realistically, any chance Denver has of getting in will depend on Seattle slumping hard in the second half. I don't see Baltimore losing a grip on their performance recently and New York, Washington are too strong to slip out.

[Delandis]

Seems like a lot of sluggers experiencing a bit of regression as sophomores.

[Sharkn20]

Seems like a lot of sluggers experiencing a bit of regression as sophomores.

I had that problem with Williams and Salazar last year

[Pat]

Good read, Carlos, and others. I had a lot of "C.J. Evers types" in my Washington days. The pitchers that are BLB level quality but never break through until their final years. Org lifers.

As for Denver's playoff chances, I don't think it hinges on Seattle. The usual suspects, PHI, DVS, BAL and DC are near locks at this point. Good records so far, tons of talent and a willingness to add key pieces to win now. While Batavia is poised to go on a 2nd half tear, I'm afraid. They lead the IL in runs and their biggest weakness (rotation ERA) is only going to improve with that talented group. Oh and they just traded for last years OBP leader in David Santoyo!

That leaves New York, Los Alamos, Denver, Seattle and Windy City competing for the 6th and final spot. Windy City and Los Alamos seem like a year away from putting it all together but they have so much talent in the rotation that they could get hot in the 2nd half. New York has been a big surprise so far boasting the leagues best team ERA and playing top notch defense. Even if the Pilots have a second half noise dive, which does seem likely, Denver is going to have stiff competition for the Wild Card.

Should be a fun 2nd half.

[Delandis]

I had that problem with Williams and Salazar last year

Pretty much all of the hitters from last year's NB are struggling. Gosser, Wescott, Vickers and Jackson are all having problems adjusting so far this season.

[Carlos]

Good read, Carlos, and others. I had a lot of "C.J. Evers types" in my Washington days. The pitchers that are BLB level quality but never break through until their final years. Org lifers.

As for Denver's playoff chances, I don't think it hinges on Seattle. The usual suspects, PHI, DVS, BAL and DC are near locks at this point. Good records so far, tons of talent and a willingness to add key pieces to win now. While Batavia is poised to go on a 2nd half tear, I'm afraid. They lead the IL in runs and their biggest weakness (rotation ERA) is only going to improve with that talented group. Oh and they just traded for last years OBP leader in David Santoyo!

That leaves New York, Los Alamos, Denver, Seattle and Windy City competing for the 6th and final spot. Windy City and Los Alamos seem like a year away from putting it all together but they have so much talent in the rotation that they could get hot in the 2nd half. New York has been a big surprise so far boasting the leagues best team ERA and playing top notch defense. Even if the Pilots have a second half noise dive, which does seem likely, Denver is going to have stiff competition for the Wild Card.

Should be a fun 2nd half.

Yeah, there are teams in that area with us that could bump us out of the way. I looked at it from the position that we will obviously have to play better than that group first. If we can't separate ourselves from the pack, it won't matter what happens with the leaders. Assuming we do, we need some help, and that would require a team slumping hard.

[Delandis]

that would require a team slumping hard.

If you can just keep up until September, I'm sure the boys will find a way to help you out.

[Pat]

Pretty much all of the hitters from last year's NB are struggling. Gosser, Wescott, Vickers and Jackson are all having problems adjusting so far this season.

See "rookie boost"