Bock at a Glance

[umd]

Here's a quick look at the new Bock after expansion...

1. Los Alamos Amigos (95 wins) - with an emerging young rotation, a veteran bullpen and bright young stars peppering the lineup, this should be a breakout season.

Player to Watch: OF Gil Mullins - injuries derailed the young RFs season last year, but his talent is undeniable. A full season from the youngster provides protection for Garnett and Yonke and turns Padgett into a more dangerous hitter.

2. Death Valley Scorpions (93 wins) - 11 playoff appearances in 12 seasons has Vegas showing cracks. Gone is Robertson, team MVP Tom Estes, Tom Wright and several other glue veterans. A team that relies on players in their primes finds itself shopping stars and relying on a youth movement in key spots.

Player to Watch: IF/OF Bobby Marrero - the injury riddled, multi-faceted slugger is essential to the Scorpions success. He'll be asked to protect Kemp and Rosales in a revamped lineup and possibly anchor the infield at 2B and the OF in LF depending on the day.

3. Seattle Pilots (85 wins) - The expansion draft and free agency has provided Seattle with a roster that walks a fine line between decline and potential. The rotation is solid, boasting seasoned veterans that have proven they know how to win games. The bullpen is a mix of talented veterans at the backend and underachievers in the middle. The lineup has some pop, but it'll be up to Henne and Nelson to make the offense go.

Player to Watch: SS Dave Nelson - at 34, Nelson has been a two way force for years in the BLB. What does he have left in his move to Seattle? He'll be the face of the franchise and they'll need his superior defense in the middle IF and his switch hitting talents in the heart of the order.

4. Windy City Blues (84 wins) - Talent is starting to blossom in Windy City. A young rotation is poised to take the next step. Diego Lovera brings his rings from Pawtucket to anchor a bullpen that has question marks. The lineup hasn't caught up to the rotation, however when it does, the Blues should begin a string of playoff appearances.

Player to Watch: SP Dave Teel - Now is the time for Teel to take over as one of the premiere pitchers in the IL. His ability to dominate every start should be the catalyst for the rest of the rotation. If he makes the jump to elite pitcher status, it could mean a wildcard birth for Chicago.

5. Denver BC (83 wins) - Denver continues to add assets for the future and is patiently waiting for young players to begin to mature. Built on defense and a staff with unrealized potential, look to Denver to hover around .500 this season.

Player to Watch: 1B Antonio Banuelos - the possibility exists that one of the best hitters in the league finds himself in a new uniform. If he doesn't, Denver will count on him to produce for a lineup lacking established hitters. With him, Denver is competitive. Without him, it could be a long season of low scoring affairs.

6. Davenport Brawlers (60 wins) - the Brawlers are in the final phases of ridding themselves of the large contracts handed out during their playoff run several years ago. There's talent on the roster and in the system. Expect the Brawlers to be up and down as pieces move around across the roster.

Player to Watch: CF Roman Stafford - the talented outfielder put in a solid rookie season. It's possible he moves to LF, where he projects as a plus defender. Expect Stafford to continue to show progress at the plate and provide some fun moments for the Davenport faithful.

[Pat]

Only a 10 win difference between Death Valley and Denver?

I was thinking closer to 30.

[umd]

Only a 10 win difference between Death Valley and Denver?

I was thinking closer to 30.

We just aren't as good as we were I don't think and I think this division will break pretty evenly.

[Carlos]

I think Death Valley beats out Los Alamos in a tight race unless Death Valley starts off slow and exiles more veteran players like Willie Rosales (assuming they can finally move him) for less than value.

Seattle is in an interesting position for an expansion team that will win more games than it probably needs to because it lacks a farm system. I see this team being a .500 club for two seasons and then bottoming out unless it can get out ahead and move players for picks. It will be a tough position for Pat with 4 wild cards and Seattle likely being in the mix all season.

Windy City probably has its over .500 season with missed opportunities that usually happen to a team at their age. I can see them building momentum toward a strong 2018 season.

In Denver, I think the rookies will surprise and this club can be a .500 one. My expectations are there will be an uptick in wins for the next couple years. Expect to see all of the rookies in May as we wait out service days.

Davenport is in a place I know too well. I remember the days of Morgan for 4 future 1st round picks and what a disaster that was for us once we ended up gutting everyone. Davenport never really took advantage of it despite having a nice collection of players.

[Pat]

I see this team being a .500 club for two seasons and then bottoming out

Very impressive take Calros. That's how I see the first few years going as well. I have a heavy veteran roster with a lot of declining and over paid players. The window is closing as quickly as it opens but our goal is to compete from day one.

The best inaugural season by an expansion team was the 1984 Morgantown Mohawks who went 79-83. While the quickest to the post-season was the 1985 Indianapolis Clowns who made won the division with a 89-73 record in their 4th BLB season. My owner has different goals but these are what I'm aiming for.

[Carlos]

That take ignores what you have done well with Washington. I'm sure you'll flip assets and find serviceable players to keep you afloat but what made you successful in Washington will be missing with Seattle at first.

You had great drafted talent and always found a way to get free agents to round out the roster. Without the youth, you'll just be collecting free agent pieces.

It will keep you afloat for a couple years. Interested to see how you go about making yourself a 90 win team.

[Pat]

Really enjoyed this by the way, UMD. Glad someone stepped up to do some type of preview!

Few of my own thoughts...

Death Valley is easily the class of this division. Batavia or Washington could give them a run for the #1 seed in the IL playoffs but no one from the Bock is going to come close. Gone are Robertson and Estes but the departure's of Stroble and Wright won't hurt much. According to the Positional Strength page, all but RF has a top 10 position player, five of them top six. RF is a defense first player anyways. The rotation is Top 5 and the bullpen isn't deep but good at the top. 100+ wins.

I agree that Los Alamos has a lot of pieces in place to take that next step but to jump from 77 wins to 95 wins would be tough. Losing Henne to the expansion draft (37 HRs in '16) and Xavier Garnett for the first five weeks with a broken thumb (5.5 WAR in '16) is going to hurt their momentum. "Tugboat" Trotter is a bit of question mark as well recovering from an injury riddled 2016 and being left exposed in the Expansion Draft. I am a big Gil Mullins fan but I think they aren't near the class of this division...yet. They should contend for a Wild Card spot though. 88+ wins.

I'm a big Blues guy. They have a rotation full of young talent. Sending 3B Jimmy Nash to Pawtucket was a phenomenal trade. Nash can't field like he used to so just getting his glove off the field is a plus. He didn't hit as well as expected and to get a Top 5 closer in return is a big improvement. It all depends on how that young rotation develops. Is this the year they put it together? I think it's 2018. Prediction: 82+ wins

I could just as likely see Seattle going 72-90 or 90-72. This team is veteran heavy with more injury risks than I have ever fielded in my BLB history. The personnel is probably the worst in the BLB. The outfield is full of question marks. I don't have anything close to my typical Triple-A (or AAAA, if you will) depth that I normally have when the injury bug hits. I also don't plan on trading picks and with a barren farm system, trading in general seems highly unlikely for awhile. However, this team has a lineup full of power, great infield defense, a Top 10 rotation and bullpen. If we get lucky in the health department, I think we could break .500... Prediction: 81-81

I'm not buying the Denver hype. I know they have young talent and a defensive first team... but they lost more talent than any team in the BLB this off-season according to WAR. Mike del Rio, TJ Dunn (the other one), Zach Bromely, Mekhi Richards, RJ Manning, Ian Ledbetter, William Eckstein, Pat Steffan, Dave Smith... and they are going to have play Feliciano for the fans. If Denver improves from 75-87 in 2016, Carlos, you get manager of the year. Prediction: 72-90.

Davenport quietly (not while trying to pee) had a really nice off-season. I've always been a big SP Andujar fan, combined with re-signing Xavier Hernandez, acquiring Tom Smith cheap and some bullpen arms, I think they improve on their 2016. That's not saying a lot but I think the 60+ is likely.

[Carlos]

Not your fault but we didn't lose Dave Smith. I think Brad entered the trade wrong initially.

Smith went from loser to contender to loser faster than Ned Stark.

[BradZ]

Not your fault but we didn't lose Dave Smith. I think Brad entered the trade wrong initially.

Smith went from loser to contender to loser faster than Ned Stark.

This. That was on me. Accidentally grabbed Smith instead of Steffen when I initially did that deal.

[Carlos]

This. That was on me. Accidentally grabbed Smith instead of Steffen when I initially did that deal.

We forgive you and Dave Smith is still a happy guy.

[Cory]

Great write-ups everybody. I really enjoyed reading all of this. I'm happy to see that most of you seem to think that I'm on the upswing.

I don't have nearly enough experience to look at the rosters and attempt to formulate predictions. I just wanted to say thank you to those that have taken the time to do so.

[umd]

15 games left... how did I do?

Here's a quick look at the new Bock after expansion...

1. Los Alamos Amigos (95 wins) - with an emerging young rotation, a veteran bullpen and bright young stars peppering the lineup, this should be a breakout season.

Player to Watch: OF Gil Mullins - injuries derailed the young RFs season last year, but his talent is undeniable. A full season from the youngster provides protection for Garnett and Yonke and turns Padgett into a more dangerous hitter.

Grade = F. When I predict you to make the jump and you miss your win estimate by 40, that's pretty awful on both our parts. Injuries derailed the starting pitchers, not the line-up this season.

Mullins played the whole season and posted a 4.5 WAR. Yonke came back to Earth a bit and Garnett (0.5 WAR) was mediocre. Padgett did turn into a more dangerous hitter .275/17 HR/50 RBI.

2. Death Valley Scorpions (93 wins) - 11 playoff appearances in 12 seasons has Vegas showing cracks. Gone is Robertson, team MVP Tom Estes, Tom Wright and several other glue veterans. A team that relies on players in their primes finds itself shopping stars and relying on a youth movement in key spots.

Player to Watch: IF/OF Bobby Marrero - the injury riddled, multi-faceted slugger is essential to the Scorpions success. He'll be asked to protect Kemp and Rosales in a revamped lineup and possibly anchor the infield at 2B and the OF in LF depending on the day.

Grade = A. Pretty spot on. We should win 95-100 games and we relied heavily on players in their primes who didn't produce as well as in the past (Rosales, Kemp and McCarley) and had to rely on new glue guys (Martin, McRory, Pierce, TJ Dunn) to compete. We sold off some vets and I started more youngsters than ever before.

Marrero heating up has carried us to the top of the IL. His .275/25 HR/65 RBI and 5.5 WAR is exactly what I've hoped. His plus 20 ZR in LF has been tremendous to replace Estes.

3. Seattle Pilots (85 wins) - The expansion draft and free agency has provided Seattle with a roster that walks a fine line between decline and potential. The rotation is solid, boasting seasoned veterans that have proven they know how to win games. The bullpen is a mix of talented veterans at the backend and underachievers in the middle. The lineup has some pop, but it'll be up to Henne and Nelson to make the offense go.

Player to Watch: SS Dave Nelson - at 34, Nelson has been a two way force for years in the BLB. What does he have left in his move to Seattle? He'll be the face of the franchise and they'll need his superior defense in the middle IF and his switch hitting talents in the heart of the order.

Grade = A-. Predicted 85, they could hit 95. Seattle has the #4 rotation and #4 bullpen in the IL. Check those boxes. The line-up has some pop with 171 HRs good for 1st in the IL. Check.

Nelson was a stud to start the season. He set the tone for everything and turned the Pilots into possible division winners. Henne wasn't the impact bat I predicted, but every single other guy on the team came to play. This is why none of us who knew Pat and Andrew were concerned that they would have "nothing to work with" when we were discussing expansion rosters. They were just fine.

4. Windy City Blues (84 wins) - Talent is starting to blossom in Windy City. A young rotation is poised to take the next step. Diego Lovera brings his rings from Pawtucket to anchor a bullpen that has question marks. The lineup hasn't caught up to the rotation, however when it does, the Blues should begin a string of playoff appearances.

Player to Watch: SP Dave Teel - Now is the time for Teel to take over as one of the premiere pitchers in the IL. His ability to dominate every start should be the catalyst for the rest of the rotation. If he makes the jump to elite pitcher status, it could mean a wildcard birth for Chicago.

Grade = C. They'll come in about 15 games under. The rotation was solid, just didn't make the leap I anticipated across the board. The line-up struggled as expected. They weren't able to generate consistent offense and it hurt.

Teel was very good. However, he experienced the sophomore slump that plagued the ILs best second year players.

5. Denver BC (83 wins) - Denver continues to add assets for the future and is patiently waiting for young players to begin to mature. Built on defense and a staff with unrealized potential, look to Denver to hover around .500 this season.

Player to Watch: 1B Antonio Banuelos - the possibility exists that one of the best hitters in the league finds himself in a new uniform. If he doesn't, Denver will count on him to produce for a lineup lacking established hitters. With him, Denver is competitive. Without him, it could be a long season of low scoring affairs.

Grade = B. Carlos did what was expected and continued to stockpile and develop young talent. He moved Banuelos and the offense struggled. A rough April dictated the season. After April, Denver has hovered around .500, but the overall record will show a youth movement.

6. Davenport Brawlers (60 wins) - the Brawlers are in the final phases of ridding themselves of the large contracts handed out during their playoff run several years ago. There's talent on the roster and in the system. Expect the Brawlers to be up and down as pieces move around across the roster.

Player to Watch: CF Roman Stafford - the talented outfielder put in a solid rookie season. It's possible he moves to LF, where he projects as a plus defender. Expect Stafford to continue to show progress at the plate and provide some fun moments for the Davenport faithful.

Grade = B. The Brawlers did what I expected, but were worse than I thought they would be by about 15 games. They really bottomed out this season. The roster will turn over as large contracts come off the books.

Stafford was hurt during the season and made smaller growth than expected as a second year player. He stayed in CF, where he was a sub par defender.

[Pat]

Predictions are hard.

This was a fun read and review. I hope others will follow for 2018.