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Philadelphia Freedom:
Record: 51-32 (1st in Stout)
Pace: 100-62
Preview Prediction: 86-76 (3rd in Stout)
What's gone right: The commitment to pitching and defense has really paid off. In the off-season the Freedom traded away sluggers Israel Morales and Oscar Sanchez, and brought in defensive minded no-names A.J. Bonifield and Enrique Sanchez. The much improved defense at 3B and CF has helped the pitching staff reach elite levels. The Freedom are currently 1st in the IL in ERA.
The lineup still has some slugging power with 2B Jimmy "Revenant" Kidwell and OF Ethan Bafford combining for 33 homers. Both are pacing near or above career highs.
What's gone wrong: While this is a defensive minded lineup, they could use a boost in OPS. Currently 9th in the IL. The biggest culprit is 1B R.J. Kemp. The 30-year-old recently signed a 6-year $58M extension but is hitting a career low .261 with a .728 OPS.
Grade: A
I commented on the change in philosophy in the preview and expected a better 2016 than 2015, but this was unprecedented. The real question is will it last?
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Washington Bats:
Record: 47-35 (2nd in Stout)
Pace: 93-69 (Wild Card)
Preview Prediction: 94-68 (2nd in Stout, Wild Card)
What's gone right: This team is doing the little things. Currently 1st in the IL in runs scored, despite not ranking higher than 3rd (XBH, SLG) in any batting category. They are also 2nd in ERA despite ranking just 4th in rotation ERA and 5th in bullpen. Very impressive when you also consider they have one of the worst PYT records at -4.
FA signee RP Manny Ochoa (2.45 ERA) has adjusted nicely to his setup role in DC, pairing with closer Israel Rodriguez (.47 ERA, 20 saves) to form one of the best 8th-9th inning duos in the BLB. The trade for RF Israel Morales looks really good while he currently has a career high in OPS (.958).
What's gone wrong: OF Pat Ladd and SP Al Moon combined for a 6.4 WAR in 2015. In 2016, .5 WAR. That's terrible when you also consider they are making a combined $25M. It's pretty safe bet their 2017 team options will be declined.
Grade: B
Almost exactly as predicted the Bats are keeping pace in the Stout and have a comfortable lead in the Wild Card race. The addition of top prospect SP Ed "Dropkick" Carroll is something to keep an eye on. He's arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball and has all-world potential. If he reaches it this season, Washington could challenge for the Stout.
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Wilmington Wildcats:
Record: 43-39 (3rd in Stout)
Pace: 85-77 (Wild Card)
Preview Prediction: 96-66 (1st in Stout)
What's gone right: The powerful lineup returns. The Wildcats have six players who could reach 20 HRs this year, three who could reach 30. Their 83 bombs are 2nd in the entire Import League. Younger 1B Kikuzo Ishikawa is responsible for 13 of those and might be one of the best young hitters you haven't heard of. The resurgence by 3B Pat Vonada (.766 OPS, +6.3 ZR) has been a nice surprise as well.
Closer Ian Byrge leads the IL's 3rd best bullpen (2.91 ERA), with help from Frank Rico, who could hit 100+ IP.
What's gone wrong: Is it just growing pains? This team is almost identical to last seasons but is struggling to meet expectations. After last years surprise Stout title and run to the ILCS, many expected the high powered offense and flame throwing rotation to improve. However, they currently sit at just 7th in runs scored and the 9th best rotation ERA.
Grade: C-
Was 2015 a fluke? Does this team need more experience? Or are the Wildcats about to go on a second half run? Either is possible making Wilmington one of the most interesting teams to watch in the second half of 2016.
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Baltimore Bulldogs:
Record: 39-42 (4th in Stout)
Pace: 78-84
Preview Prediction: 83-79 (4th in Stout)
What's gone wrong: Only Windy City has a worse road record than Baltimore (13-28). The pitching staff being the biggest problem: 9th in the IL for runs allowed. According to the positional strength page, the Bulldogs rank 18th in rotation and 22nd in relievers.
The team has had it's share of injuries as well: Ricky Murillo, Jimmy Cornell, Roberto Crespin, Antonio Gonzalez, Troy Donovan.
What's gone right: Trading for OF Ricky Murillo and signing FA C/1B Diego Flores has helped carry the teams offense. Murillo is back in the Top 5 of the players list and is on pace for his 2nd highest OPS. Flores still struggles with the glove but his 139 OPS+ is top notch.
At home, they are one of the leagues best at 26-14.
Grade: C
Projected to finish 4th in the mighty Stout but some in Baltimore expected to compete. It looks like they might sell off some pieces to build towards 2017.
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Stout 2nd Half Outlook: The Stout remains the toughest division in baseball with four solid teams. Even with Washington 3.5 and Wilmington 7.5 back, this division lead doesn't quite feel safe for Philadelphia. Don't be surprised to see all three make the post-season but who will take the division?
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