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#1 - 2B Mike "Yoyo" Morla - California Kodiaks
Why I love this pick... No brainer. Most, if not all, teams would have taken the UCLA product with the top pick but I think this is a dream pairing. California currently boasts a young trio of Dave Wescott, Dusty Filar and Garrek Finn, who look to man the 1B-LF-RF spots for the next 10 years. When I first saw Morla's potential, former Kodiak HOF infielder Dani Trujillo immediately came to mind. Not exactly the same type of player but Morla looks like he could break Trujillo's California franchise records in WAR, Games, Hits, Runs, TB, Singles, Doubles, Triples...and possibly Kokoro Fuji's HR record.
Morla currently ranks as the #1 hitter in NCAA, finished 2nd in the 2015 Outstanding Hitter vote, had a 24 game hit streak and won the 2016 Regionals MVP Award. OSA currently projects his contact to be an "8". He hit 48 HRs in two seasons. He has near elite speed. He's never been hurt. He already expects to be in the BLB. OSA has his current hitting at 4-6-4-3-3 and a “6” on 2B defense…he’s only 20.
Why I don't love this pick... Morla's #1 motivation is money. His top personality trait is high greed. His next highest is normal work ethic. The rest, are all low. Scouts say he's a "Good guy in the clubhouse, rarely makes waves." This is obviously nit-picking but you would think someone this good statistically, with the accolades and the high draft selection, would be a leader... or care about winning... or loyalty... or moderate intelligence... or a high work ethic... What happens when Morla finally gets that first multi-million dollar deal? Does he want to be great?
Again, nit picking, but while he looks the part of sure-fire All-Star and potential Hall of Famer, he's not a true Five-Tool player. He has the ability to hit for average, power, he has the running speed and good hands, but he doesn't really have the arm strength. OSA rates his arm just a "4" and without any positional versatility, he will only be able to play 2B as a pro.
BLB Comparison: Dani Trujillo (link)
Pick Grade: A
Bust Percentage: 2%
#2 – LF Dave “Tapper” Ingram - Toronto Canadians
Why I love this pick... He’s got the accolades: Currently rates #2 in Cape Code League. Won the 2015 Outstanding Hitter Award. He’s hit 51 home runs in just 96 games. He’s never been hurt. He has great running abilities. He’s never been hurt. He fills a need: Toronto needs help in a lot of areas but with only one OF in the organization Top 10, Ingram immediately becomes the LF of the future. He also appears versatile enough that he could play 1B-LF-RF-DH, giving Toronto some flexibility for the future.
Despite not being a leader, he has great intangibles. High work ethic, intelligence and very low greed… and we all know Toronto likes to save money. He’s also somewhat developed at 3-4-4-3-4 and won’t turn 21 until October.
Why I don't love this pick... Where’s the defense? In 2016, Ingram ranked 11th in range factor, 11th in zone rating and 6th in efficiency among the 10 Cape Cod League teams at LF. In 2015, he played DH the entire year. Is there a chance his future is 1B/DH? If that’s the case was he the better selection than the other 1Bs in this draft? Does this immediately clog up 1B-DH when combined with top prospect Dylan Owens (who also isn’t a great leader)?
He also isn’t an ideal fit in Toronto Stadium. As a right-handed home run hitter, Ingram will have a .970 HR park factor. The Canadians biggest hitter benefit is to those who hit doubles (1.030) and Triples (1.080). Ingram hit just four doubles in 2016 and zero triples. Not a huge deal but it’s hard to find faults with the #2 pick in the draft.
BLB Comparison: Pat St. Thomas
Pick Grade: A-
Bust Percentage: 5%
#3 – 1B Fred “Express” Ratley - Windy City Blues
Why I love this pick... He’s arguably the drafts best hitter. In 2015, Ratley beat out Morla for the NCAA Outstanding Hitter Award, while also taking home the Glove Wizard Award at 1B. He hit 28 homers and 69 RBI in 50 games that year. He currently rates as the #2 hitter in NCAA. He has solid infield and base running ratings for a first basemen.
While he’s not a leader, he does have very high work ethic and average intelligence. He’s also very developed at 4-5-3-4-4 according to OSA. He’s been hurt only once with a day-to-day groin injury that is normal for a 20-year-old superstar.
Why I don't love this pick... Didn’t the Blues just sign a 1B to a seven-year $84 million deal? Of course, Dave Slack is almost ten years older but without a DH spot, Windy City will probably be forced to trade one of the two within the next 3-4 seasons.
He plays all out but all he cares about is making that money. With very high greed, very low leadership/loyalty and low desire for winning, he doesn’t sound like the best locker room guy. He has also seen a decline in his numbers from 2015 to 2016: 28 to 19 HRs, 5.1 to 3.0 WAR, 230 to 189 OPS+.
BLB Comparison: Jon Montalbo
Pick Grade: B
Bust Percentage: 5%
#4 – LF Jaeden Moir – Davenport Brawlers
Why I love this pick... Currently ranks as the #1 hitter in the Cape Cod League. He won the 2015 League Championship and took home the Glove Wizard Award in LF. He had a hitting streak longer (20 games) than years he had been alive (19). His “7”contact potential and Morla’s “8” are the only two above a “6” in the entire draft according to OSA. He can also run very well. He’s never been hurt. Hits to all fields. The first lefty selected, Moir’s development might be his most impressive trait. OSA has him 5-5-3-5-4…remember the kid won’t turn 20 until May 25th. He’s probably good enough to be on the Brawler’s active roster immediately after the draft.
His intangibles are arguably the best so far to this point in the draft. Regarded as a “baseball rat” with very high work ethic, loyalty, normal everything else, except very low greed.
Why I don't love this pick... Definitely not an ideal fit for the park in Davenport. The Brawlers have one of the worst park factors of left-handed batters: .903 AVG, .928 HR. It does however fit his tendency for doubles and triples (1.025), just expect the average to take a dip at home.
Was this a bit too high for Moir? His two seasons WAR of 5.0 is far less than some of the remaining prospects. A few GMs around the league were surprised to see Moir drafted in the Top 5. Unfortunately because Davenport's GM has been without internet for the past two weeks, this was selected by the auto draft. It might have still been Nelsms' selection but I hate auto picks this early.
BLB Comparison: Taylor Thomas
Grade: C
Bust Percentage: 10%
#5 – SP R.J. “Plunk” Clendenin - Carolina Tobs
Why I love this pick... “Punk” has all the ingredients to be a very good starter. Very high leadership, high stamina, cares about winning, four pitches, high work ethic, #1 pitcher ranking in NCAA and 2015 Outstanding Pitcher Award. His K/9 took a big league from last season. He has never had an injury in college (but still just “normal”).
While he might not have the potential we are used to seeing from the first pitcher off the board, or any pitcher taken in the top five, his floor seems very high. "Punk" seems like a long shot to become an ace but appears to be a near lock to be a good #2/#3 SP for years to come. He will need a good infield behind him but his ability to induce ground balls combined with his solid movement, bodes well.
Why I don't love this pick... Was he the drafts best SP? Some scouts think he wasn’t. OSA has him just 5-6-5 potential. Even if he is the top pitcher in the draft, was passing on a hitter the right move? Carolina has just begun a massive rebuild and has plenty of time to take the best prospect available regardless of position. This is widely known as a heavy hitters draft and the names still on the board probably have higher potential to become superstars.
BLB Comparison: Poor Man's Travis DuFour
Grade: B-
Bust Percentage: 5%
#6 – SS Omar “Sparky” Baber – New York Knigths
Why I love this pick... Baber looks like a swiss army knife. 6-5-6-5 infield, 5-5-5 outfield, should allow Baber to play almost everywhere when needed. OSA also has his catcher arm at a “3”, so he might even be an emergency option behind the plate. He has very high leadership and high intelligence. He has surprising pop (5 on HR) for a little guy; “Sparky” is just 5’8 170lbs.
During his two collegiate seasons at Rice he hit .323 with a 1.003 OPS and 3.2 WAR. OSA also has him far in his development at 4-4-3-3-3, with his positional versatility he might reach the show before some drafted before him. Middle infield power is always hard to come by and “Sparky” hit 25 dingers in two seasons.
Why I don't love this pick... The versatility is nice but where is his #1 spot? He was subpar defensively during his two years playing SS for Rice. He probably doesn’t have the range to be a great outfielder. His arm might be strong enough to play 3B but his future seems most likely at 2B. He did have an injury in college, missing a week with a strained oblique.
Ranks as the 9th best NCAA hitter, but two middle infielders rank above him. With the depth of hitting talent available, some have to wonder if the Knights scout liked “Sparky” better than any other team in the draft. He projects to be a very nice piece but doesn’t seem like the talent we are use to with a Top six pick. A lot of scouts had two other infielders projected to go before him.
BLB Comparison: Billy Alvarado (link)
Pick Grade: B-
Bust Percentage: 10%
#7 – 3B Matt “Stallion” Healey – Denver Baseball Club
Why I love this pick... His .521 collegiate OBP is jaw dropping. With the best contact/eye/avoid K combo in the draft, it’s easy to see why OSA rates this kid 6-6-3-5-8 potential. He also has near elite running abilities as well potential defensive versatility 3B/LF/RF/1B.
A “very coachable” kid with near elite intangibles. Healey’s 28-game hitting streak was snapped this year but he still drew a walk in the game. He proceeded to get on base in next 22 games thereafter. He’s probably good enough right now to make Denver's active roster...and hit in the top 1/3 of the order.
Why I don't love this pick... High risk, high reward. There is a chance he ends up as arguably the best player in this draft. However, there is also a chance that he flames out the fastest. Healey has the worst injury history of any prospect drafted, missing a week last year with an elbow contusion and two weeks this year with an oblique strain. His effort to make every play could lead to regular disabled list trips down the road. With Denver heading to the IL, the "Stallion" won't be able to rest at DH, either.
Is 3B his future? He was the DH in 2015 and in 2016 ranked 6th in range factor, but one of the worst in errors, efficiency and zone rating. OSA ranks his OF potential 5-5-7, so LF/RF is a potential spot as well. However his low power potential isn’t very traditional for a 3B/OF type. Some scouts saw him as a Top 3 pick...so why the fall?
BLB Comparison: Robert Abbott
Pick Grade: A-
Bust Percentage: 20%
#8 – SS Nelson Marquez - California Kodiaks
Why I love this pick...Exciting potential. The short stop hit 39 HR and 90 RBI in 91 games. He also stole 10 bases and was a top three defender at his position. He’s also a leader and considered by some to be the smartest player in the draft. With all that included, you could make a case that Marquez is the steal of the draft.
In 2016 he saw both his eye and power improve as well as his defense. The pick is a nice fit with “Yoyo” penciled in at 2B for the next decade in California. If Marquez and Morla reach their potential, they might for the most dangerous hitting middle infield in the BLB. He is the only infielder to receive a “7” power potential from OSA, Morla the only "8" on contact.
Why I don't love this pick... Will he ever reach his potential? OSA currently has his batting ratings at 3-3-2-3-3. To go from a “2” to a “7” on power will take a lot of work and coaching. Unfortunately, Marquez has a low work ethic, doesn’t care about money, winning or loyalty. Will he be motivated enough? Are the Kodiak minor league coaches and Player Development strong enough?
His “all or nothing” approach to batting isn’t very favorable amongst some GMs. In 2016, he hit 23 home runs, but no triples, and just three doubles…while striking out more than once a game. Marquez projects to be the very definition of “streaky.” Expect a lot of 0-fer games.
BLB Comparison: Bobby Marrero (non-switch)
Pick Grade: C+
Bust Percentage: 35%
#9 – RF Dave Webber – Syracuse Slammers
Why I love this pick... Webber’s nickname might as well be Slammer. A year after a modest season where he hit .265 with 14 home runs, Webber blasted onto the scene in 2016 with a .370 / 27 HR / 63 RBI campaign. OSA rates him currently 4-5-4-4-4, not too far from his 5-5-7-5-5 potential. He has never been hurt and was the 2016 Sweet 16 NCAA MVP.
He has a big frame (6’4, 200) and a hard working attitude. He cares about winning and making a lot of money. His future might be best at 1B/DH but he can field LF/RF to some extent, helping his versatility. Some scouts projected him as a Top 5 pick.
Why I don't love this pick... Is he the 2015 Webber or 2016 Webber? To hit .100 points better and almost double your home run total is not very common. Is this who he is going to be or did he just have a hot 47 games? With only a two season sample size that sounds very risky for a Top 10 pick.
He’s not ranked on the NCAA Top 20 Players List despite his monster season. He was the DH in 2015 and when he did move to RF this year he was arguably the worst in the NCAA. Can he improve or will he be forced to DH?
BLB Comparison: Right-Handed Travis Wyatt
Grade: B
Bust Percentage: 15%
#10 – CF Rod Sedivec - Los Alamos Amigos
Why I love this pick... Have you seen some of the CFs that are getting regular ABs in the BLB these days? With the leagues new focus on defense, it's not easy to find a CF who can field the position as well as hit. Sedevic is easily the best CF in the draft and many were surprised to see him last until the 10th pick. Although he has no experience, OSA thinks he could play all over the infield as well. He also saw an improved scouting report for power potential and improved his zone rating in the field from 2015 to 2016. Very developed at 4-5-3-3-4 already.
He currently ranks as the 7th best hitter in the NCAA. Some scouts think he is true five-tool player, depending on who you ask. He has near elite intangibles with very high leadership, high work ethic, high desire to win and high loyalty. He has great athleticism on the base paths and in the outfield. He's only missed two days due to stomach flu. In the NCAA semi-finals, Game 3, he had 2 RBI in a 3-2 win. His Pacific Tigers will now play Rice for the College World Series.
Why I don't love this pick... He declined from 2015 to 2016, statistically from the plate. From .335 AVG to .275. From .981 OPS to .857. In 2016, he hit .306 at home but just .242 on the road. Which player is he? Is he going to be streaky?
According to OSA, his OF fielding error is just a "4". He has great range and a solid arm, but I don't know many people comfortable with a "4" error OF. According to the stats, he's never had an error in college.
BLB Comparison: Jamie Urmson/Manny Reyes (link)
Pick Grade: A-
Bust Percentage: 10%
#11 - RF Brendan Lanoie - Baltimore Bulldogs
Why I love this pick... Not many players have 32-game hit streaks like Lanoie did in 2015. He currently ranks as the 11th best hitter in the NCAA. Very good on the base paths and at the plate. In 2015 he hit .397 with 17 HRs. He also boasts one of the better bunting abilities, sacrifice or for a hit, in the entire draft.
Despite a drop in power, Lanoie saw a rise in walks in 2016, 18 to 32. Were pitchers afraid? Had he just got more patient? Probably a little of both. Armed with a cannon in RF. Lanoie was projected to be a Top 10 pick by OSA.
Why I don't love this pick... His main personality trait is greed. Suffered a sprain finger and missed two weeks in 2015. Also missed 10 games that season for starting a brawl. Most concerning was the OSA scouting report drop in eye potential from a "6" to a "5".
Baltimore surprised many by not selecting one of the remaining LH hitting prospects. Despite his rocket arm, Lanoie was statistically one of the worst RFs in college in 2016 with a 1.54 range factor and negative zone rating. He will have to play the field in the IL.
BLB Comparison: Seth Burkett (link)
Pick Grade: C+
Bust Percentage: 15%
#12 - 1B Jimmy Macaluso - Hartford Whalers
Why I love this pick... The last remaining "7" on power according to OSA. Macaluso hit 34 bombs over two season at Baylor while posting a .400+ OBP. The 20-year-old has a big frame (6'3, 220lbs) and is known as a gym rat. Twice in 2016 he had a three home run game. Hard to pass on that type of game-changing power. He's never been hurt.
I also like the fit in Hartford. The Whalers have a very short porch in Left Field and with the righty Macaluso's propensity to pull the ball he should take full advantage...when he does make contact.
Why I don't love this pick... He hit just .262 in 2015. That does not translate to a high average in the BLB. He also strikes out more than once a game with no improvement year to year...he actually got worse. There will be a lot of swinging and missing done by Mac.
Would Hartford have been better off landing a versatile position player or possibly a pitcher? A RH power hitting 1B isn't hard to find, as you could argue that is currently the best hitter on the Whalers roster in Darryl Dellinger. Expect to see some pitchers and infielders off the board shortly.
BLB Comparison: Darryl Dellinger (link)
Pick Grade: B-
Bust Percentage: 20%
#13 - SP Jalen Duell - Maine Guides
Why I love this pick... Back to back Baylor Bears! Some have argued that Duell is the best pitcher in the draft. With only one season of work, opinions vary. One can't argue about the facts: 97 MPH velocity, 60%+ GB, 11.3 K/9, .378 BABIP and 2.4 WAR in just 12 starts this season.
OSA has his potential at 6-5-6 with 6 stamina and three plus pitches. He's imposing on the mound at 6'5. He is durable. He has a very high desire for winning and high intelligence. Many considered him a Top 10 pick.
Why I don't love this pick... A one year sample is risky. Was it a fluke? He also doesn't have the best personality with low work ethic and low leadership. OSA has his current control at a "2" and projects him at a "6". He has a long way to go still.
Was he the best pitcher remaining? Would a hitter have made more sense for the Guides recent drafts/farm system?
BLB Comparison: Manny Reyna (link)
Pick Grade: B+
Bust Percentage: 20%
The draft got too far ahead of me... so the remainder of the first round picks won't be as detailed.
#14 - Batavia Mucdogs - RF Tom Ackers
Why I love this pick... The kid can rake. Two years, 39 HRs, 5.1 WAR in 93 games. Rocket arm and already very developed in LF/RF. Has the skills to add 1B to his repertoire. Very high leadership. Currently ranks as the #6 hitter in CCBL. Hits to all fields. He was the last remaining hitter on the BLB News Top 10 prospects. One of few great lefties in the draft.
Why I don't love this pick... A 20-year-old with a herniated back injury is a bit worrisome. He clogs up the bases. He's greedy. OSA is showing his contact, avoid K and gap power are already maxed out at 4, 4, 5. Looks like a safe pick but might not have the highest ceiling.
Pick Grade: B
Bust Percentage: 10%
#15 - Denver BC - SS Tom Pelloni
Why I love this pick... Short stops were getting scooped up early with Baber and Marquez going Top 10. OSA loves this kids potential at 5-7-6-5-6 and already fairly developed at 4-5-4-3-4. From 2015-2016 OSA improved his eye potential from "4" to "5". He's very high leadership and high intelligence. Never been hurt. Great gap power.
Why I don't love this pick... I'm skeptical of OSA's potential. If Pelloni is really a 5-7-6-5-6 short stop, he probably goes Top 5, right? His statistics are nice but they don't project to quite that high. And is he even a true short stop? In two years at Florida State he was one of the worst defenders in NCAA posting a .959 EFF, 3.47 RF and -5.4 ZR. While he has the versatility to play SS, 3B, LF and RF with experience, his main future lies at 2B. No accolades. No major accomplishments.
Pick Grade: B
Bust Percentage: 20%
#16 - Washington Bats - SP Roger Villasenor
Why I love this pick... The final player on the BLB News Top 10 Prospects. Intimidating on the mound at 6'7. Five of his 11 starts in 2015 were 10+ Ks. Groundball. Good velocity. Very high leadership and loyalty. Going to the IL with an "8" on sacrifice bunt could come in handy. Very developed at 4-5-4 already.
Why I don't love this pick... 2016. Returned from a five week elbow injury to go 0-2 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. Was he rusty? Has the injury hurt his potential? Only a "5" on stamina, so he won't go deep into games, especially as a strikeout pitcher.
Pick Grade: B
Bust Percentage: 20%
#17 - California Kodiaks - RF Zack Thomas
Why I love this pick... A quiet guy on and off the field. Thomas has incredible gap and home run power for a little guy (5'10, 165). 25 doubles and 32 homers in 99 games. Defensive versatility at LF/RF/1B. Never been hurt. 2016 NCAA Sweet 16 MVP. Good speed.
Why I don't love this pick... He's going to strikeout a lot. 115 in 99 at the collegiate level projects to near 200 in the BLB. Needs to add some muscle if he wants to reach that power potential. Does he fit into the future plans? The Kodiaks have a trio of young guys at 1B-LF-RF already. I think a pitcher or catcher here would have made a lot more sense. Maybe they thought he was the best available.
Pick Grade: C-
Bust Percentage: 30%
#18 - Maine Guides - SP A.J. Clauss
Why I love this pick... Some scouts believe he has the potential to be the best pitcher in the draft. Turned 20 in April. Groundball tendency. 94 MPH velocity. "8" on stamina. Never been hurt. Won the 2016 League Championship and took home the Glove Wizard Award. Didn't have solid defense behind him for two years but still went 9-3 with a 161 ERA+ and 3.5 WAR. Very High leadership and high loyalty. Already pretty far in development.
Why I don't love this pick... Another pitcher? Maine takes two pitchers in the first round despite this being considered a "hitters draft." Very high greed. High risk, high reward. Has the potential to be the best in the draft and the work ethic + intelligence to be a bust. Maine has a good history with developing pitchers but this pick feels risky.
Pick Grade: B-
Bust Percentage: 30%
#19 - Wilmington Wildcats - C Dave Girard
Why I love this pick... The first high schooler! I really like the fit. Girard won't turn 18 until August and is going to take a lot of years to develop. The Wildcats are fine with that as they currently boast one of the best backstops in baseball in Norm Deiwart, who turned 25 last week. Girard isn't known for his defense but his batting potential is all league. As a 15-year-old he walked 41 times in 34 games. Very consistent numbers for three straight seasons. High intelligence.
Why I don't love this pick... Really struggled defensively and will have to improve if he wants to play catcher in the BLB. No real positional versatility besides maybe 1B. Luckily, Wilmington is headed to the DL. He had a three week hip flexor injury. Clogs the base paths. Low leadership and low work ethic.
Pick Grade: B+
Bust Percentage: 30%
#20 - Carolina Tobs - 1B Tom Keown
Why I love this pick... He's got power. 34 home runs in 100 games at Oregon State. Cares about winning. Finished 12th in the NCAA in 2016 in OPS. Low greed. Never been hurt.
Why I don't love this pick... Not much else to love besides the power. Isn't a good defender who can only play 1B/DH. No speed. Low leadership and intelligence. OSA has his strikeout potential at a "3". HR or nothing type hitter. Hit .361 with a 1.217 OPS at home and .260 with a .865 OPS on the road in 2016.
Pick Grade: D+
Bust Percentage: 40%
#21 - New Orleans Dukes - RF Colin Brown
Why I love this pick... He's all business. Very high work ethic with high intelligence and desire to win. Above average defensively at LF/RF and on the base paths. Improved at the plate from 2015 to 2016. Had a three home run game this year. OSA has him 4-4-4-3-5 current and 5-5-5-5-5 potential, projecting an early BLB debut. 51 RBI in 35 games this season.
Why I don't love this pick... A three week back injury is a bit worrisome. "Doesn't mix with his teammates." Despite a high stealing potential only went two for three in college. Was day-to-day with the flu in the off-season...only wimps report sickness in the off-season.
Pick Grade: B+
Bust Percentage: 10%
#22 - Davenport Brawlers - SP Jamie Randalls
Why I love this pick... OSA thinks he could have elite control. 94 MPH velocity. Never been hurt. Won the 2015 College World Series at Miami. High stamina. Five pitches. "8" on sacrifice bunt is useful in the IL. Great stats without a lot of defensive support.
Why I don't love this pick... He's a piece of shit with low intelligence, desire to win and even lower work ethic and loyalty. OSA downgraded his movement potential from a "5" to a "6", a season that saw his HRA jump from three to ten. Throws a lot of pitches but they all appear to be hittable by BLB standards.
Pick Grade: C-
Bust Percentage: 35%
#23 - Pittsburgh Millers - CF Dave Seibert
Why I love this pick... Arguably the most versatile defender in the draft. Has the potential to be a plus defender at every position besides pitcher and catcher. Very smart and loyal. Low greed. OSA projects his potential at 5-6-5-5-6. Very impressive considering his defensive chops.
Why I don't love this pick... Very low leadership, desire to win and worst of all, work ethic. Clogs the bases. No accomplishments in NCAA. High risk, high reward.
Pick Grade: B
Bust Percentage: 25%
#24 - Denver BC - CF Seigo Ichikawa
Why I love this pick... Seems like a perfect fit for what Denver is trying to build. Elite speed. Also one of the rare players with good bunt skills, sacrifice or to reach base. His high avoid K potential projects very well with his speed. Defensively might not end up at CF but should be very good at LF/RF. More impressively is his potential at 2B with a "7" on range. Very high work ethic. Good gap power. Potential leadoff hitter.
Why I don't love this pick... "Dumb as a brick." A LOT of development needed for a soon to be 21-year-old. OSA has his contact currently at a "3". Some pitchers have more power potential than he does. Wasn't very successful stealing in college, including four for eight in 2016.
Pick Grade: A-
Bust Percentage: 20%
Why I love this pick... No brainer. Most, if not all, teams would have taken the UCLA product with the top pick but I think this is a dream pairing. California currently boasts a young trio of Dave Wescott, Dusty Filar and Garrek Finn, who look to man the 1B-LF-RF spots for the next 10 years. When I first saw Morla's potential, former Kodiak HOF infielder Dani Trujillo immediately came to mind. Not exactly the same type of player but Morla looks like he could break Trujillo's California franchise records in WAR, Games, Hits, Runs, TB, Singles, Doubles, Triples...and possibly Kokoro Fuji's HR record.
Morla currently ranks as the #1 hitter in NCAA, finished 2nd in the 2015 Outstanding Hitter vote, had a 24 game hit streak and won the 2016 Regionals MVP Award. OSA currently projects his contact to be an "8". He hit 48 HRs in two seasons. He has near elite speed. He's never been hurt. He already expects to be in the BLB. OSA has his current hitting at 4-6-4-3-3 and a “6” on 2B defense…he’s only 20.
Why I don't love this pick... Morla's #1 motivation is money. His top personality trait is high greed. His next highest is normal work ethic. The rest, are all low. Scouts say he's a "Good guy in the clubhouse, rarely makes waves." This is obviously nit-picking but you would think someone this good statistically, with the accolades and the high draft selection, would be a leader... or care about winning... or loyalty... or moderate intelligence... or a high work ethic... What happens when Morla finally gets that first multi-million dollar deal? Does he want to be great?
Again, nit picking, but while he looks the part of sure-fire All-Star and potential Hall of Famer, he's not a true Five-Tool player. He has the ability to hit for average, power, he has the running speed and good hands, but he doesn't really have the arm strength. OSA rates his arm just a "4" and without any positional versatility, he will only be able to play 2B as a pro.
BLB Comparison: Dani Trujillo (link)
Pick Grade: A
Bust Percentage: 2%
#2 – LF Dave “Tapper” Ingram - Toronto Canadians
Why I love this pick... He’s got the accolades: Currently rates #2 in Cape Code League. Won the 2015 Outstanding Hitter Award. He’s hit 51 home runs in just 96 games. He’s never been hurt. He has great running abilities. He’s never been hurt. He fills a need: Toronto needs help in a lot of areas but with only one OF in the organization Top 10, Ingram immediately becomes the LF of the future. He also appears versatile enough that he could play 1B-LF-RF-DH, giving Toronto some flexibility for the future.
Despite not being a leader, he has great intangibles. High work ethic, intelligence and very low greed… and we all know Toronto likes to save money. He’s also somewhat developed at 3-4-4-3-4 and won’t turn 21 until October.
Why I don't love this pick... Where’s the defense? In 2016, Ingram ranked 11th in range factor, 11th in zone rating and 6th in efficiency among the 10 Cape Cod League teams at LF. In 2015, he played DH the entire year. Is there a chance his future is 1B/DH? If that’s the case was he the better selection than the other 1Bs in this draft? Does this immediately clog up 1B-DH when combined with top prospect Dylan Owens (who also isn’t a great leader)?
He also isn’t an ideal fit in Toronto Stadium. As a right-handed home run hitter, Ingram will have a .970 HR park factor. The Canadians biggest hitter benefit is to those who hit doubles (1.030) and Triples (1.080). Ingram hit just four doubles in 2016 and zero triples. Not a huge deal but it’s hard to find faults with the #2 pick in the draft.
BLB Comparison: Pat St. Thomas
Pick Grade: A-
Bust Percentage: 5%
#3 – 1B Fred “Express” Ratley - Windy City Blues
Why I love this pick... He’s arguably the drafts best hitter. In 2015, Ratley beat out Morla for the NCAA Outstanding Hitter Award, while also taking home the Glove Wizard Award at 1B. He hit 28 homers and 69 RBI in 50 games that year. He currently rates as the #2 hitter in NCAA. He has solid infield and base running ratings for a first basemen.
While he’s not a leader, he does have very high work ethic and average intelligence. He’s also very developed at 4-5-3-4-4 according to OSA. He’s been hurt only once with a day-to-day groin injury that is normal for a 20-year-old superstar.
Why I don't love this pick... Didn’t the Blues just sign a 1B to a seven-year $84 million deal? Of course, Dave Slack is almost ten years older but without a DH spot, Windy City will probably be forced to trade one of the two within the next 3-4 seasons.
He plays all out but all he cares about is making that money. With very high greed, very low leadership/loyalty and low desire for winning, he doesn’t sound like the best locker room guy. He has also seen a decline in his numbers from 2015 to 2016: 28 to 19 HRs, 5.1 to 3.0 WAR, 230 to 189 OPS+.
BLB Comparison: Jon Montalbo
Pick Grade: B
Bust Percentage: 5%
#4 – LF Jaeden Moir – Davenport Brawlers
Why I love this pick... Currently ranks as the #1 hitter in the Cape Cod League. He won the 2015 League Championship and took home the Glove Wizard Award in LF. He had a hitting streak longer (20 games) than years he had been alive (19). His “7”contact potential and Morla’s “8” are the only two above a “6” in the entire draft according to OSA. He can also run very well. He’s never been hurt. Hits to all fields. The first lefty selected, Moir’s development might be his most impressive trait. OSA has him 5-5-3-5-4…remember the kid won’t turn 20 until May 25th. He’s probably good enough to be on the Brawler’s active roster immediately after the draft.
His intangibles are arguably the best so far to this point in the draft. Regarded as a “baseball rat” with very high work ethic, loyalty, normal everything else, except very low greed.
Why I don't love this pick... Definitely not an ideal fit for the park in Davenport. The Brawlers have one of the worst park factors of left-handed batters: .903 AVG, .928 HR. It does however fit his tendency for doubles and triples (1.025), just expect the average to take a dip at home.
Was this a bit too high for Moir? His two seasons WAR of 5.0 is far less than some of the remaining prospects. A few GMs around the league were surprised to see Moir drafted in the Top 5. Unfortunately because Davenport's GM has been without internet for the past two weeks, this was selected by the auto draft. It might have still been Nelsms' selection but I hate auto picks this early.
BLB Comparison: Taylor Thomas
Grade: C
Bust Percentage: 10%
#5 – SP R.J. “Plunk” Clendenin - Carolina Tobs
Why I love this pick... “Punk” has all the ingredients to be a very good starter. Very high leadership, high stamina, cares about winning, four pitches, high work ethic, #1 pitcher ranking in NCAA and 2015 Outstanding Pitcher Award. His K/9 took a big league from last season. He has never had an injury in college (but still just “normal”).
While he might not have the potential we are used to seeing from the first pitcher off the board, or any pitcher taken in the top five, his floor seems very high. "Punk" seems like a long shot to become an ace but appears to be a near lock to be a good #2/#3 SP for years to come. He will need a good infield behind him but his ability to induce ground balls combined with his solid movement, bodes well.
Why I don't love this pick... Was he the drafts best SP? Some scouts think he wasn’t. OSA has him just 5-6-5 potential. Even if he is the top pitcher in the draft, was passing on a hitter the right move? Carolina has just begun a massive rebuild and has plenty of time to take the best prospect available regardless of position. This is widely known as a heavy hitters draft and the names still on the board probably have higher potential to become superstars.
BLB Comparison: Poor Man's Travis DuFour
Grade: B-
Bust Percentage: 5%
#6 – SS Omar “Sparky” Baber – New York Knigths
Why I love this pick... Baber looks like a swiss army knife. 6-5-6-5 infield, 5-5-5 outfield, should allow Baber to play almost everywhere when needed. OSA also has his catcher arm at a “3”, so he might even be an emergency option behind the plate. He has very high leadership and high intelligence. He has surprising pop (5 on HR) for a little guy; “Sparky” is just 5’8 170lbs.
During his two collegiate seasons at Rice he hit .323 with a 1.003 OPS and 3.2 WAR. OSA also has him far in his development at 4-4-3-3-3, with his positional versatility he might reach the show before some drafted before him. Middle infield power is always hard to come by and “Sparky” hit 25 dingers in two seasons.
Why I don't love this pick... The versatility is nice but where is his #1 spot? He was subpar defensively during his two years playing SS for Rice. He probably doesn’t have the range to be a great outfielder. His arm might be strong enough to play 3B but his future seems most likely at 2B. He did have an injury in college, missing a week with a strained oblique.
Ranks as the 9th best NCAA hitter, but two middle infielders rank above him. With the depth of hitting talent available, some have to wonder if the Knights scout liked “Sparky” better than any other team in the draft. He projects to be a very nice piece but doesn’t seem like the talent we are use to with a Top six pick. A lot of scouts had two other infielders projected to go before him.
BLB Comparison: Billy Alvarado (link)
Pick Grade: B-
Bust Percentage: 10%
#7 – 3B Matt “Stallion” Healey – Denver Baseball Club
Why I love this pick... His .521 collegiate OBP is jaw dropping. With the best contact/eye/avoid K combo in the draft, it’s easy to see why OSA rates this kid 6-6-3-5-8 potential. He also has near elite running abilities as well potential defensive versatility 3B/LF/RF/1B.
A “very coachable” kid with near elite intangibles. Healey’s 28-game hitting streak was snapped this year but he still drew a walk in the game. He proceeded to get on base in next 22 games thereafter. He’s probably good enough right now to make Denver's active roster...and hit in the top 1/3 of the order.
Why I don't love this pick... High risk, high reward. There is a chance he ends up as arguably the best player in this draft. However, there is also a chance that he flames out the fastest. Healey has the worst injury history of any prospect drafted, missing a week last year with an elbow contusion and two weeks this year with an oblique strain. His effort to make every play could lead to regular disabled list trips down the road. With Denver heading to the IL, the "Stallion" won't be able to rest at DH, either.
Is 3B his future? He was the DH in 2015 and in 2016 ranked 6th in range factor, but one of the worst in errors, efficiency and zone rating. OSA ranks his OF potential 5-5-7, so LF/RF is a potential spot as well. However his low power potential isn’t very traditional for a 3B/OF type. Some scouts saw him as a Top 3 pick...so why the fall?
BLB Comparison: Robert Abbott
Pick Grade: A-
Bust Percentage: 20%
#8 – SS Nelson Marquez - California Kodiaks
Why I love this pick...Exciting potential. The short stop hit 39 HR and 90 RBI in 91 games. He also stole 10 bases and was a top three defender at his position. He’s also a leader and considered by some to be the smartest player in the draft. With all that included, you could make a case that Marquez is the steal of the draft.
In 2016 he saw both his eye and power improve as well as his defense. The pick is a nice fit with “Yoyo” penciled in at 2B for the next decade in California. If Marquez and Morla reach their potential, they might for the most dangerous hitting middle infield in the BLB. He is the only infielder to receive a “7” power potential from OSA, Morla the only "8" on contact.
Why I don't love this pick... Will he ever reach his potential? OSA currently has his batting ratings at 3-3-2-3-3. To go from a “2” to a “7” on power will take a lot of work and coaching. Unfortunately, Marquez has a low work ethic, doesn’t care about money, winning or loyalty. Will he be motivated enough? Are the Kodiak minor league coaches and Player Development strong enough?
His “all or nothing” approach to batting isn’t very favorable amongst some GMs. In 2016, he hit 23 home runs, but no triples, and just three doubles…while striking out more than once a game. Marquez projects to be the very definition of “streaky.” Expect a lot of 0-fer games.
BLB Comparison: Bobby Marrero (non-switch)
Pick Grade: C+
Bust Percentage: 35%
#9 – RF Dave Webber – Syracuse Slammers
Why I love this pick... Webber’s nickname might as well be Slammer. A year after a modest season where he hit .265 with 14 home runs, Webber blasted onto the scene in 2016 with a .370 / 27 HR / 63 RBI campaign. OSA rates him currently 4-5-4-4-4, not too far from his 5-5-7-5-5 potential. He has never been hurt and was the 2016 Sweet 16 NCAA MVP.
He has a big frame (6’4, 200) and a hard working attitude. He cares about winning and making a lot of money. His future might be best at 1B/DH but he can field LF/RF to some extent, helping his versatility. Some scouts projected him as a Top 5 pick.
Why I don't love this pick... Is he the 2015 Webber or 2016 Webber? To hit .100 points better and almost double your home run total is not very common. Is this who he is going to be or did he just have a hot 47 games? With only a two season sample size that sounds very risky for a Top 10 pick.
He’s not ranked on the NCAA Top 20 Players List despite his monster season. He was the DH in 2015 and when he did move to RF this year he was arguably the worst in the NCAA. Can he improve or will he be forced to DH?
BLB Comparison: Right-Handed Travis Wyatt
Grade: B
Bust Percentage: 15%
#10 – CF Rod Sedivec - Los Alamos Amigos
Why I love this pick... Have you seen some of the CFs that are getting regular ABs in the BLB these days? With the leagues new focus on defense, it's not easy to find a CF who can field the position as well as hit. Sedevic is easily the best CF in the draft and many were surprised to see him last until the 10th pick. Although he has no experience, OSA thinks he could play all over the infield as well. He also saw an improved scouting report for power potential and improved his zone rating in the field from 2015 to 2016. Very developed at 4-5-3-3-4 already.
He currently ranks as the 7th best hitter in the NCAA. Some scouts think he is true five-tool player, depending on who you ask. He has near elite intangibles with very high leadership, high work ethic, high desire to win and high loyalty. He has great athleticism on the base paths and in the outfield. He's only missed two days due to stomach flu. In the NCAA semi-finals, Game 3, he had 2 RBI in a 3-2 win. His Pacific Tigers will now play Rice for the College World Series.
Why I don't love this pick... He declined from 2015 to 2016, statistically from the plate. From .335 AVG to .275. From .981 OPS to .857. In 2016, he hit .306 at home but just .242 on the road. Which player is he? Is he going to be streaky?
According to OSA, his OF fielding error is just a "4". He has great range and a solid arm, but I don't know many people comfortable with a "4" error OF. According to the stats, he's never had an error in college.
BLB Comparison: Jamie Urmson/Manny Reyes (link)
Pick Grade: A-
Bust Percentage: 10%
#11 - RF Brendan Lanoie - Baltimore Bulldogs
Why I love this pick... Not many players have 32-game hit streaks like Lanoie did in 2015. He currently ranks as the 11th best hitter in the NCAA. Very good on the base paths and at the plate. In 2015 he hit .397 with 17 HRs. He also boasts one of the better bunting abilities, sacrifice or for a hit, in the entire draft.
Despite a drop in power, Lanoie saw a rise in walks in 2016, 18 to 32. Were pitchers afraid? Had he just got more patient? Probably a little of both. Armed with a cannon in RF. Lanoie was projected to be a Top 10 pick by OSA.
Why I don't love this pick... His main personality trait is greed. Suffered a sprain finger and missed two weeks in 2015. Also missed 10 games that season for starting a brawl. Most concerning was the OSA scouting report drop in eye potential from a "6" to a "5".
Baltimore surprised many by not selecting one of the remaining LH hitting prospects. Despite his rocket arm, Lanoie was statistically one of the worst RFs in college in 2016 with a 1.54 range factor and negative zone rating. He will have to play the field in the IL.
BLB Comparison: Seth Burkett (link)
Pick Grade: C+
Bust Percentage: 15%
#12 - 1B Jimmy Macaluso - Hartford Whalers
Why I love this pick... The last remaining "7" on power according to OSA. Macaluso hit 34 bombs over two season at Baylor while posting a .400+ OBP. The 20-year-old has a big frame (6'3, 220lbs) and is known as a gym rat. Twice in 2016 he had a three home run game. Hard to pass on that type of game-changing power. He's never been hurt.
I also like the fit in Hartford. The Whalers have a very short porch in Left Field and with the righty Macaluso's propensity to pull the ball he should take full advantage...when he does make contact.
Why I don't love this pick... He hit just .262 in 2015. That does not translate to a high average in the BLB. He also strikes out more than once a game with no improvement year to year...he actually got worse. There will be a lot of swinging and missing done by Mac.
Would Hartford have been better off landing a versatile position player or possibly a pitcher? A RH power hitting 1B isn't hard to find, as you could argue that is currently the best hitter on the Whalers roster in Darryl Dellinger. Expect to see some pitchers and infielders off the board shortly.
BLB Comparison: Darryl Dellinger (link)
Pick Grade: B-
Bust Percentage: 20%
#13 - SP Jalen Duell - Maine Guides
Why I love this pick... Back to back Baylor Bears! Some have argued that Duell is the best pitcher in the draft. With only one season of work, opinions vary. One can't argue about the facts: 97 MPH velocity, 60%+ GB, 11.3 K/9, .378 BABIP and 2.4 WAR in just 12 starts this season.
OSA has his potential at 6-5-6 with 6 stamina and three plus pitches. He's imposing on the mound at 6'5. He is durable. He has a very high desire for winning and high intelligence. Many considered him a Top 10 pick.
Why I don't love this pick... A one year sample is risky. Was it a fluke? He also doesn't have the best personality with low work ethic and low leadership. OSA has his current control at a "2" and projects him at a "6". He has a long way to go still.
Was he the best pitcher remaining? Would a hitter have made more sense for the Guides recent drafts/farm system?
BLB Comparison: Manny Reyna (link)
Pick Grade: B+
Bust Percentage: 20%
The draft got too far ahead of me... so the remainder of the first round picks won't be as detailed.
#14 - Batavia Mucdogs - RF Tom Ackers
Why I love this pick... The kid can rake. Two years, 39 HRs, 5.1 WAR in 93 games. Rocket arm and already very developed in LF/RF. Has the skills to add 1B to his repertoire. Very high leadership. Currently ranks as the #6 hitter in CCBL. Hits to all fields. He was the last remaining hitter on the BLB News Top 10 prospects. One of few great lefties in the draft.
Why I don't love this pick... A 20-year-old with a herniated back injury is a bit worrisome. He clogs up the bases. He's greedy. OSA is showing his contact, avoid K and gap power are already maxed out at 4, 4, 5. Looks like a safe pick but might not have the highest ceiling.
Pick Grade: B
Bust Percentage: 10%
#15 - Denver BC - SS Tom Pelloni
Why I love this pick... Short stops were getting scooped up early with Baber and Marquez going Top 10. OSA loves this kids potential at 5-7-6-5-6 and already fairly developed at 4-5-4-3-4. From 2015-2016 OSA improved his eye potential from "4" to "5". He's very high leadership and high intelligence. Never been hurt. Great gap power.
Why I don't love this pick... I'm skeptical of OSA's potential. If Pelloni is really a 5-7-6-5-6 short stop, he probably goes Top 5, right? His statistics are nice but they don't project to quite that high. And is he even a true short stop? In two years at Florida State he was one of the worst defenders in NCAA posting a .959 EFF, 3.47 RF and -5.4 ZR. While he has the versatility to play SS, 3B, LF and RF with experience, his main future lies at 2B. No accolades. No major accomplishments.
Pick Grade: B
Bust Percentage: 20%
#16 - Washington Bats - SP Roger Villasenor
Why I love this pick... The final player on the BLB News Top 10 Prospects. Intimidating on the mound at 6'7. Five of his 11 starts in 2015 were 10+ Ks. Groundball. Good velocity. Very high leadership and loyalty. Going to the IL with an "8" on sacrifice bunt could come in handy. Very developed at 4-5-4 already.
Why I don't love this pick... 2016. Returned from a five week elbow injury to go 0-2 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. Was he rusty? Has the injury hurt his potential? Only a "5" on stamina, so he won't go deep into games, especially as a strikeout pitcher.
Pick Grade: B
Bust Percentage: 20%
#17 - California Kodiaks - RF Zack Thomas
Why I love this pick... A quiet guy on and off the field. Thomas has incredible gap and home run power for a little guy (5'10, 165). 25 doubles and 32 homers in 99 games. Defensive versatility at LF/RF/1B. Never been hurt. 2016 NCAA Sweet 16 MVP. Good speed.
Why I don't love this pick... He's going to strikeout a lot. 115 in 99 at the collegiate level projects to near 200 in the BLB. Needs to add some muscle if he wants to reach that power potential. Does he fit into the future plans? The Kodiaks have a trio of young guys at 1B-LF-RF already. I think a pitcher or catcher here would have made a lot more sense. Maybe they thought he was the best available.
Pick Grade: C-
Bust Percentage: 30%
#18 - Maine Guides - SP A.J. Clauss
Why I love this pick... Some scouts believe he has the potential to be the best pitcher in the draft. Turned 20 in April. Groundball tendency. 94 MPH velocity. "8" on stamina. Never been hurt. Won the 2016 League Championship and took home the Glove Wizard Award. Didn't have solid defense behind him for two years but still went 9-3 with a 161 ERA+ and 3.5 WAR. Very High leadership and high loyalty. Already pretty far in development.
Why I don't love this pick... Another pitcher? Maine takes two pitchers in the first round despite this being considered a "hitters draft." Very high greed. High risk, high reward. Has the potential to be the best in the draft and the work ethic + intelligence to be a bust. Maine has a good history with developing pitchers but this pick feels risky.
Pick Grade: B-
Bust Percentage: 30%
#19 - Wilmington Wildcats - C Dave Girard
Why I love this pick... The first high schooler! I really like the fit. Girard won't turn 18 until August and is going to take a lot of years to develop. The Wildcats are fine with that as they currently boast one of the best backstops in baseball in Norm Deiwart, who turned 25 last week. Girard isn't known for his defense but his batting potential is all league. As a 15-year-old he walked 41 times in 34 games. Very consistent numbers for three straight seasons. High intelligence.
Why I don't love this pick... Really struggled defensively and will have to improve if he wants to play catcher in the BLB. No real positional versatility besides maybe 1B. Luckily, Wilmington is headed to the DL. He had a three week hip flexor injury. Clogs the base paths. Low leadership and low work ethic.
Pick Grade: B+
Bust Percentage: 30%
#20 - Carolina Tobs - 1B Tom Keown
Why I love this pick... He's got power. 34 home runs in 100 games at Oregon State. Cares about winning. Finished 12th in the NCAA in 2016 in OPS. Low greed. Never been hurt.
Why I don't love this pick... Not much else to love besides the power. Isn't a good defender who can only play 1B/DH. No speed. Low leadership and intelligence. OSA has his strikeout potential at a "3". HR or nothing type hitter. Hit .361 with a 1.217 OPS at home and .260 with a .865 OPS on the road in 2016.
Pick Grade: D+
Bust Percentage: 40%
#21 - New Orleans Dukes - RF Colin Brown
Why I love this pick... He's all business. Very high work ethic with high intelligence and desire to win. Above average defensively at LF/RF and on the base paths. Improved at the plate from 2015 to 2016. Had a three home run game this year. OSA has him 4-4-4-3-5 current and 5-5-5-5-5 potential, projecting an early BLB debut. 51 RBI in 35 games this season.
Why I don't love this pick... A three week back injury is a bit worrisome. "Doesn't mix with his teammates." Despite a high stealing potential only went two for three in college. Was day-to-day with the flu in the off-season...only wimps report sickness in the off-season.
Pick Grade: B+
Bust Percentage: 10%
#22 - Davenport Brawlers - SP Jamie Randalls
Why I love this pick... OSA thinks he could have elite control. 94 MPH velocity. Never been hurt. Won the 2015 College World Series at Miami. High stamina. Five pitches. "8" on sacrifice bunt is useful in the IL. Great stats without a lot of defensive support.
Why I don't love this pick... He's a piece of shit with low intelligence, desire to win and even lower work ethic and loyalty. OSA downgraded his movement potential from a "5" to a "6", a season that saw his HRA jump from three to ten. Throws a lot of pitches but they all appear to be hittable by BLB standards.
Pick Grade: C-
Bust Percentage: 35%
#23 - Pittsburgh Millers - CF Dave Seibert
Why I love this pick... Arguably the most versatile defender in the draft. Has the potential to be a plus defender at every position besides pitcher and catcher. Very smart and loyal. Low greed. OSA projects his potential at 5-6-5-5-6. Very impressive considering his defensive chops.
Why I don't love this pick... Very low leadership, desire to win and worst of all, work ethic. Clogs the bases. No accomplishments in NCAA. High risk, high reward.
Pick Grade: B
Bust Percentage: 25%
#24 - Denver BC - CF Seigo Ichikawa
Why I love this pick... Seems like a perfect fit for what Denver is trying to build. Elite speed. Also one of the rare players with good bunt skills, sacrifice or to reach base. His high avoid K potential projects very well with his speed. Defensively might not end up at CF but should be very good at LF/RF. More impressively is his potential at 2B with a "7" on range. Very high work ethic. Good gap power. Potential leadoff hitter.
Why I don't love this pick... "Dumb as a brick." A LOT of development needed for a soon to be 21-year-old. OSA has his contact currently at a "3". Some pitchers have more power potential than he does. Wasn't very successful stealing in college, including four for eight in 2016.
Pick Grade: A-
Bust Percentage: 20%
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