2016 BLB Preview: Porter Division

[Pat]

Death Valley Scorpions: After an off-season of standing pat, do the Scorpions finally have the chemistry to win it all?

Trading and the Scorpions go together like peanut butter and jelly. A long look and you will notice that majority of the roster was acquired in trades: Willie Fajardo, Ron Robertson, Dave Honea, Alex Torres, Jonathan Arnholt, Sean Williams, Jimmy Morosco, Will Perez, Danny Trujillo, Pat Mason, Troy McCarley, Travis Kemp, Tom Wright, CJ Wilkinson, Tom Estes, Willie Rosales, Willie Lara, Al Anguiano and Travis Zuk.

After GM UMD took over for the franchise in 2003, trading has been his calling card. And after a run from 2005-2015 which featured 10 playoff teams, finishing no worse than 2nd in the division and three 100+ win teams, it is clearly working for him as well as the fan base. However, despite the best regular season run of any BLB team during that 11-year span, the Scorpions are still missing the one thing you can't trade for: A Brewmaster's Ring.

Enter 2016. Despite a very public trading block, the Scorpions look almost like the same team as 2015. Gone are catchers Bobby Montoya (.6 WAR) and Danny Salcedo (0 WAR). In their place, Dave D'Orio (.8 WAR). OF Ethan Costa tested the Free-Agent waters but returned after he found no bidders. Where this team could receive a boost is from the minors where top prospects IF Erik Jackson and 1B Jamie August appear ready.

The team has a lofty goal of Championship or Bust basically every year. Having more familiarity in the locker room can only help. And any help to arguably the best team in baseball is scary.

Around The Horn (5-Star Rankings):
Offense: 5
Defense: 4.5
Starting Rotation: 5
Bullpen: 4

Keep on eye on:
1B Willie "Cracker" Rosales
Rosales is one of biggest XBH threats in the entire BLB. He has hit 40+ doubles seven times in nine year career. He has hit 25+ HRs seven times. He has hit 100+ RBI four times. The 32-year-old has also proven to be extremely durable playing in 154 games or more in every season. However, Rosales is sometimes accused of "dogging it" and hasn't got a lot of buzz on the trade block recently. His 2015 OPS dipped to a seven-year low of .826. Expect Rosales to be on the hot seat all year.



Los Alamos Amigs: The secret is out: Amigos son benunas

With the 2016 Preseason Predictions out, a people were surprised to see the Amigos listed at 92-70 and the #1 WC seed. However, league insiders weren't surprised at all.

The 2015 78-84 Amigos set the table for 2016. The three consecutive 100 loss seasons seem like a distant past. The rotation boasts the #15 and #19 best pitchers in baseball in Leo Flores and Dave Harmony. The bullpen has the #6 best closer in Tom "Tugboat" Trottier. The outfield features the #3 prospect in baseball in Gil Mullins. And then there is the infield...In Free-Agency, Los Alamos was a big winner nabbing marquee infielder Xavier Garnett. It's rare a middle infield talent such as Garnett ever reaches the market let alone at 28-years-old. Combining him with Geoff Yonke and Zachary Henne, and you have arguably the best combo of offense/defense from any 2B-3B-SS trio in all of baseball.

The Amigos have the #2 overall farm system and a payroll under $70M. This group is here to stay.

Around The Horn (5-Star Rankings):
Offense: 3.5
Defense: 3.5
Starting Rotation: 4
Bullpen: 3

Keep on eye on:
SP Ernie Nunn
One of the most polarizing prospects in the 2013 draft, 23-year-old Nunn has a lot of talent. Right now, he's good enough to crack any BLB rotation, possibly even a #2-#3 for some. He'd also probably good enough to crack a handful of BLB lineups as a defensive wiz at SS. OSA rates his bat 5-5-4-2-6 and his infield defense 7-8-7-7. He's also 6-8-6 on base running. He's pencilled in right now as a middle reliever but his future looks very bright. A key rotation piece, but also in the IL, he can hit, run and could even be a defensive replacement.



California Kodiaks: For the second season in a row they made headlines but will they win?

The Kodiaks are the BLB's lovable losers again now that Morgantown is on top. The franchise boats the 2nd worst winning % .451, first belonging to the Mohawks. A .451 season is 76-86 which might just be the teams goal this season.

After bottoming out at 54-108, California entered the off-season desperate to get a few more wins. Enter a completely new infield: David Santoyo, Dave Nelson and Fernando Lauriano. That's a WAR improvement of 11.5 by just three players. Those three are a night and day upgrade over a unit that really struggled in 2015. The Kodiaks were so desperate last year that they even tried OF Tom Churchill (2-2-2-2 IF ratings) at 2B for 52 games. These players were sorely needed.

With a farm system that isn't very deep, California will have to get competitive by continuing to make smart signings and even smarter trades. So far, well done. This team has a chance to take the biggest leap in wins of any club in 2016 but will it get them to .500?

Around The Horn (5-Star Rankings):
Offense: 3.5
Defense: 4
Starting Rotation: 2
Bullpen: 1.5

Keep on eye on:
OF Garrek Finn
The 22-year-old lefty is 4th highest rated hitting prospect in baseball. He made his Triple-A debut late in 2015 and isn't expected to make the BLB roster out of Spring Training. He will be ready soon however, and there lies the problem. On the club the Kodiaks boast two slugging corner OFs in Tom Churchill and Dusty Filar. Does one of the three get traded? Does one of them move to 1B? Filar has the ability to move to 1B but he is the best defender of the three in the outfield. Maybe one of them is traded for pitching help? Stay tuned.



Davenport Brawlers: Losing talent and slimming a payroll

Based on WAR, no team was depleted like the Brawlers were. Gone is 10 WAR from Dave Slack, Jimmy Nash, Marco Herrera and Dave Nelson. In their place? Two RPs who boasted a combined .1 WAR in Jamie Elliot and JR Goeman.

The Brawlers are approaching rough waters and they know it. The division boats arguably the most talented team in baseball, the best young up and coming team outside of Wilmington and a California club which over the off-season improved almost much as Davenport lost talent. However, this seems a tradition in Davenport.

History shows us the Brawlers a couple rebuilds for three different eras of winning. Most recently, the 1998-2005 rebuild netted them a winner from 2006-2013. This appears to be year two in the rebuild. With solid veteran hitters like Xavier Hernandez, Masao Nara and Fred Wesley still on the roster, expect the Brawlers to be shopping right out of the gate in 2016...and that's all part of the plan. Hopefully this one doesn't take as long to turn around as the last. With a farm system that ranks 7th, boasting names like Pat Brown and Roman Stafford, it shouldn't take nearly as long.


Around The Horn (5-Star Rankings):
Offense: 2
Defense: 1.5
Starting Rotation: 1.5
Bullpen: 3.5

Keep on eye on:
SP Chaz Stanley
A lot of the Brawlers roster is easily acquirable...but not Stanley. As a 21-year-old rookie he got 33 starts and topped 200 innings. The Brawlers would be wise to take it easy on his young arm while they aren't competing but when he is arguably the best player in the rotation, he's going to have to pitch.

PORTER PREDICTIONS
1. Death Valley (102-60)
2. Los Alamos (89-73)
3. California (70-92)
4. Davenport (58-104)

***

[Carlos]

I would like what this division has going for it in the future but that's obviously going to change next season.

While DVS will continue to remain very strong, I look forward to seeing what happens in California and Los Alamos.

Davenport is probably a bit later but we've seen that franchise make runs after rebuilding so I'm confident it will come too.

Either way, this is Death Valley's division to win for the 2016 season.

[PaulC]

Great Read Pat! Our ownership goal for this year is to not suck too badly! Hopefully we'll do that. We certainly had a defensive deficiency that we hopefully improved on. Looking forward to slowly closing the gap on DVS.

[umd]

Goal is always the playoffs. August and Jackson settling in at the BLB level will dictate any moves we make during the season. There's been interest in Wilkinson and Rosales, but I want to make sure the kids hit the ground running. With everyone from a 106 win team locked in and zero budget concerns, there's no reason to rush anything. This team is positioned to win for the foreseeable future with many key players still in their prime.

[Pat]

Goal is always the playoffs. August and Jackson settling in at the BLB level will dictate any moves we make during the season. There's been interest in Wilkinson and Rosales, but I want to make sure the kids hit the ground running. With everyone from a 106 win team locked in and zero budget concerns, there's no reason to rush anything. This team is positioned to win for the foreseeable future with many key players still in their prime.

Playoffs are a good goal. A very interesting historical number to keep an eye on is in fact your playoff run. Even during Clay's cheating days his longest run was 12 consecutive. This DVS squad is sitting at nine with this season being a lock. Like you said the team is positioned to win for the foreseeable future. It would be quite an achievement to pass Clay.

---

I really like the addition of Dave D'Orio. Combined with the Willie Lara (both former Bats) they make a quote the duo behind the plate. He won't play much but when he does he can still take lefties deep.

I think trading Wilkinson/Rosales, with Jackson and August waiting, is definitely the way to go to continue your winning ways...but will there ever be a time when we see DVS go for it? How many more seasons of no Brewmaster's will it take for you to flip a guy like Jackson or August for help in the now?

[PaulC]

Playoffs are a good goal. A very interesting historical number to keep an eye on is in fact your playoff run. Even during Clay's cheating days his longest run was 12 consecutive. This DVS squad is sitting at nine with this season being a lock. Like you said the team is positioned to win for the foreseeable future. It would be quite an achievement to pass Clay.

---

I really like the addition of Dave D'Orio. Combined with the Willie Lara (both former Bats) they make a quote the duo behind the plate. He won't play much but when he does he can still take lefties deep.

I think trading Wilkinson/Rosales, with Jackson and August waiting, is definitely the way to go to continue your winning ways...but will there ever be a time when we see DVS go for it? How many more seasons of no Brewmaster's will it take for you to flip a guy like Jackson or August for help in the now?

I agree. Playoffs are nice, but I'm guessing Morgantown is enjoying the championship the relieved by going for it last year.

[PaulC]

They received.

Damn spell check.

[umd]

Playoffs are a good goal. A very interesting historical number to keep an eye on is in fact your playoff run. Even during Clay's cheating days his longest run was 12 consecutive. This DVS squad is sitting at nine with this season being a lock. Like you said the team is positioned to win for the foreseeable future. It would be quite an achievement to pass Clay.

---

I really like the addition of Dave D'Orio. Combined with the Willie Lara (both former Bats) they make a quote the duo behind the plate. He won't play much but when he does he can still take lefties deep.

I think trading Wilkinson/Rosales, with Jackson and August waiting, is definitely the way to go to continue your winning ways...but will there ever be a time when we see DVS go for it? How many more seasons of no Brewmaster's will it take for you to flip a guy like Jackson or August for help in the now?

I went for it last year in trading multiple firsts, picks, and two Top 100 prospects, plus a slew of mid tier guys for Wilkinson and Robertson. Wilkinson made us the best defensive team in the league. Robertson went 20-2 and were it not for Fajardo's monster season, would have been my choice for Pale Ale behind Mitchell. I trotted out four 20+ ~100 RBI hitters including the #1 and #2 Stout Sluggers in the IL in McCarley and Wright to go with Rosales and Kemp.

My two weakest position players were in LF and C. Estes and Lara both won DWIs. I think Prez calculated that I had the 4th best starting rotation of all time. I admittedly saved money in my bullpen, spending just about $7m for that crew. They led the league in bullpen ERA. I thought they were an underrated bunch that may have overachieved as they blew games in the playoffs and cost me. I was upset with that, until I went back and looked through my playoff runs and saw how many saves my "elite" level closers - Manning, Fajardo, Evers, Strachan - all blew in my past playoff runs.

Sure, I've turned over my roster plenty. However, I always have my eye on my morale. I've probably only fielded 2 out of 10 teams in this run I could point to that had playing time issues. Even the players I've acquired in this run have had longevity with the club despite coming from elsewhere.

I'm not sure there's much else I can do but stick to my incremental 3-5 year plans. They have worked well and I can only hope the Clay curse that hangs over this team eventually let's me win at least one time. Until then, all I can do is put the best team on the field each year and hope for the best no matter how maddening it is to always lose in a new way each postseason.

I've admittedly been going for it since I traded for all those guys and improving by 60 games (114 wins) after bottoming out in the rubble of that scandal. I've reinvented this franchise twice already (114 wins into the Coma Era, the move from pitching to hitting in this Rosales-Wright-McCarley-Kemp Era) since battling it out with you until the switch to the Porter.

Now, we'll enter what will most likely be a 3rd transition to a Fajardo-Jackson-August anchored group, while still relying on all of the late twenties-early thirties veteran stars we have to keep us here. While some are traded off to add younger more affordable pieces, I still have plenty of minor league hitting depth, with many youngsters lined up to replace key parts over the next three seasons.

Our true weakness right now is minor league pitching depth. It's going to have to be addressed in the 2017 drafts and beyond where I retain all my picks and then some.

One day, one of these players will catch fire in the postseason and will a team to a title. Or they won't. I will keep this blueprint for the playoffs, so we always have that lottery ticket chance.

But to say I haven't been "going for it" isn't really true. If there was a move that could be made at this point to give me a title, I'd make it in a heartbeat. I don't see it though.

[PaulC]

I went for it last year in trading multiple firsts, picks, and two Top 100 prospects, plus a slew of mid tier guys for Wilkinson and Robertson. Wilkinson made us the best defensive team in the league. Robertson went 20-2 and were it not for Fajardo's monster season, would have been my choice for Pale Ale behind Mitchell. I trotted out four 20+ ~100 RBI hitters including the #1 and #2 Stout Sluggers in the IL in McCarley and Wright to go with Rosales and Kemp.

My two weakest position players were in LF and C. Estes and Lara both won DWIs. I think Prez calculated that I had the 4th best starting rotation of all time. I admittedly saved money in my bullpen, spending just about $7m for that crew. They led the league in bullpen ERA. I thought they were an underrated bunch that may have overachieved as they blew games in the playoffs and cost me. I was upset with that, until I went back and looked through my playoff runs and saw how many saves my "elite" level closers - Manning, Fajardo, Evers, Strachan - all blew in my past playoff runs.

Sure, I've turned over my roster plenty. However, I always have my eye on my morale. I've probably only fielded 2 out of 10 teams in this run I could point to that had playing time issues. Even the players I've acquired in this run have had longevity with the club despite coming from elsewhere.

I'm not sure there's much else I can do but stick to my incremental 3-5 year plans. They have worked well and I can only hope the Clay curse that hangs over this team eventually let's me win at least one time. Until then, all I can do is put the best team on the field each year and hope for the best no matter how maddening it is to always lose in a new way each postseason.

I've admittedly been going for it since I traded for all those guys and improving by 60 games (114 wins) after bottoming out in the rubble of that scandal. I've reinvented this franchise twice already (114 wins into the Coma Era, the move from pitching to hitting in this Rosales-Wright-McCarley-Kemp Era) since battling it out with you until the switch to the Porter.

Now, we'll enter what will most likely be a 3rd transition to a Fajardo-Jackson-August anchored group, while still relying on all of the late twenties-early thirties veteran stars we have to keep us here. While some are traded off to add younger more affordable pieces, I still have plenty of minor league hitting depth, with many youngsters lined up to replace key parts over the next three seasons.

Our true weakness right now is minor league pitching depth. It's going to have to be addressed in the 2017 drafts and beyond where I retain all my picks and then some.

One day, one of these players will catch fire in the postseason and will a team to a title. Or they won't. I will keep this blueprint for the playoffs, so we always have that lottery ticket chance.

But to say I haven't been "going for it" isn't really true. If there was a move that could be made at this point to give me a title, I'd make it in a heartbeat. I don't see it though.

That's the rub. No move is guaranteed. They always look great when you win. I'm guessing Atlanta Braves management and fans still love the thirteen consecutive pennants.

I'm just jealous hoping DVS panics and trades their stud rookies. Damn. Now I'm going to have to manage my way to the top.

[umd]

That's the rub. No move is guaranteed. They always look great when you win. I'm guessing Atlanta Braves management and fans still love the thirteen consecutive pennants.

I'm just jealous hoping DVS panics and trades their stud rookies. Damn. Now I'm going to have to manage my way to the top.

Never panic. Rage and whine, but never panic. Most high value prospects stay put unless there's a true star coming back or they're blocked by a young star. It's a process for sure. Erik Jackson and Willie Fajardo are going to be our next anchors.

[Pat]

Sure, I've turned over my roster plenty. However, I always have my eye on my morale. I've probably only fielded 2 out of 10 teams in this run I could point to that had playing time issues. Even the players I've acquired in this run have had longevity with the club despite coming from elsewhere.

I know in OOTP16 they show "Team Chemistry" on each players morale section. However, I always felt there was an element of cohesion with every team. For example: Your entire starting lineup has been on the team three seasons or less.

But it could just be something I thought up with no real evidence.

[funclown]

I went for it last year in trading multiple firsts, picks, and two Top 100 prospects, plus a slew of mid tier guys for Wilkinson and Robertson. Wilkinson made us the best defensive team in the league. Robertson went 20-2 and were it not for Fajardo's monster season, would have been my choice for Pale Ale behind Mitchell. I trotted out four 20+ ~100 RBI hitters including the #1 and #2 Stout Sluggers in the IL in McCarley and Wright to go with Rosales and Kemp.

My two weakest position players were in LF and C. Estes and Lara both won DWIs. I think Prez calculated that I had the 4th best starting rotation of all time. I admittedly saved money in my bullpen, spending just about $7m for that crew. They led the league in bullpen ERA. I thought they were an underrated bunch that may have overachieved as they blew games in the playoffs and cost me. I was upset with that, until I went back and looked through my playoff runs and saw how many saves my "elite" level closers - Manning, Fajardo, Evers, Strachan - all blew in my past playoff runs.

Sure, I've turned over my roster plenty. However, I always have my eye on my morale. I've probably only fielded 2 out of 10 teams in this run I could point to that had playing time issues. Even the players I've acquired in this run have had longevity with the club despite coming from elsewhere.

I'm not sure there's much else I can do but stick to my incremental 3-5 year plans. They have worked well and I can only hope the Clay curse that hangs over this team eventually let's me win at least one time. Until then, all I can do is put the best team on the field each year and hope for the best no matter how maddening it is to always lose in a new way each postseason.

I've admittedly been going for it since I traded for all those guys and improving by 60 games (114 wins) after bottoming out in the rubble of that scandal. I've reinvented this franchise twice already (114 wins into the Coma Era, the move from pitching to hitting in this Rosales-Wright-McCarley-Kemp Era) since battling it out with you until the switch to the Porter.

Now, we'll enter what will most likely be a 3rd transition to a Fajardo-Jackson-August anchored group, while still relying on all of the late twenties-early thirties veteran stars we have to keep us here. While some are traded off to add younger more affordable pieces, I still have plenty of minor league hitting depth, with many youngsters lined up to replace key parts over the next three seasons.

Our true weakness right now is minor league pitching depth. It's going to have to be addressed in the 2017 drafts and beyond where I retain all my picks and then some.

One day, one of these players will catch fire in the postseason and will a team to a title. Or they won't. I will keep this blueprint for the playoffs, so we always have that lottery ticket chance.

But to say I haven't been "going for it" isn't really true. If there was a move that could be made at this point to give me a title, I'd make it in a heartbeat. I don't see it though.

Tank to title ? (See Cubs and Astros ....maybe)

It's funny watching real world NL this season. It's 6 teams going for it then a bunch of teams rebuilding. Remind me of the old DL days in the late 90s , 00s

[umd]

I know in OOTP16 they show "Team Chemistry" on each players morale section. However, I always felt there was an element of cohesion with every team. For example: Your entire starting lineup has been on the team three seasons or less.

But it could just be something I thought up with no real evidence.

It's possible, though I would never personally run my team based on something that may or may not be a real (or relevant enough) factor. I just think these teams have been unlucky. If we are throwing out unproven theories though, funclown mentioned that maybe it has to do with all of Clay's dirty seasons in my team history doing something to my odds. Who knows? What I do know for sure is that the only way to win a title is to make the playoffs, so that's my plan every year.

I don't think I could ever tank it all unless I took over a new franchise.