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(92-70)
2nd in Runs
4th in ERA
3rd in DEF
(92-70)
5th in Runs
2nd in ERA
1st in DEF
Schedule and Parks:
Game 1 - October 11th – Baltimore @ Washington
Game 2 – October 12th – Baltimore @ Washington
Game 3 – October 14th – Washington @ Baltimore
Game 4 – October 15th – Washington @ Baltimore
Game 5 – October 16th – Washington @ Baltimore
Game 6 - October 18th – Baltimore @ Washington
Game 7 - October 19th – Baltimore @ Washington
Both teams finished with identical records but the tie-breaker was giving to Washington after they won the season series 6-3. Ironically, these were the only two teams to reach the post-season with sub .500 road records. DC (40-41), BAL (36-45).
Phillips field in Baltimore is known as a hitters park but it actually favors a certain type of hitter, specifically, left handed power hitters. A 1.170 AVG and 1.190 HR factor for LH. While it actually hurts RH hitters (.980 AVG, .980 HR) especially gap power hitters (.760 2B, .910 3B). The park couldn’t be more different than The Capitol in Washington. That park kills power hitters (.960 HR) and helps gap hitters (1.100 2B, 1.070 3B). The two teams are built for their parks, hence the home/road differentials.
With potentially one more home game than the other, the slight advantage goes to Washington.
Starting Rotations:
Bulldogs Projected ALDS Starting Rotation
1. LHP Todd Taylor – 19-5, 2.19 ERA, .98 WHIP, 229.2 IP, 202 K
2. RHP Yoshitaka Tameike – 16-7, 3.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 185.1 IP, 135 K
3. RHP Alejandro Ruedas – 11-11, 3.53 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 191.1 IP, 157 K
4. LHP Jimmy Mattoon – 14-8, 3.97 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 190.1 IP, 146 K
Bats Projected ALDS Starting Rotation
1. RHP Dave Lippert – 15-7, 2.94 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 192.2 IP, 207 K
2. LHP Tyler Salzman – 10-5, 2.56 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 144.1 IP, 132 K
3. LHP Robby Duffy – 10-6, 3.59 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 138 IP, 125 K
4. LHP Jimmy Razza – 7-11, 3.71 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 138.1 IP, 112 K
Bulldog’s starters (including 5th man Laurent Boutin) posted a 3.54 ERA, good for 4th in the IL, finishing behind three teams (DAV, CAR, DC) who play in much more pitcher friendly parks. The veteran group is lead by Taylor who after finishing 3rd in the IL Pale Ale voting last year, appears to be the favorite to win the award this year after posting career highs across the board. Behind him the rotation is interchangeable with all four starters ERA range from 3.50 to 3.90 and WHIP 1.20-1.30. Clearly a top heavy rotation, however with two lefties and two righties all about the same level, Baltimore can play the more favorable matchup.
You’ll notice immediately missing from the Bats projected rotation is team ERA leader Troy Martin. The veteran was diagnosed five days ago with a partially torn labrum and will be out for the post-season. As a collective, this group ranked 3rd in rotation ERA at 3.41, but will see a major drop off after losing Martin’s miniscule 2.35. Similar to Baltimore, the DC rotation is now very top heavy with Lippert taking the ball in game one. In his first season in the IL, “Pizza” lowered his ERA a full 1.00 after leaving the mess in Hartford. Behind him will likely be three lefties. Salzman had a breakout year posting career highs in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts. The pressure will really be on 25-year-old “Demon” Razza, who is now projected to start Game Four after the Martin injury.
With Martin out, and the age/experience of the Bulldogs rotation compared to the Bats, the advantage lies with Baltimore.
Bullpens:
Bulldogs Projected ALDS Bullpen
CL – LHP Ian Strachan – 4.88 ERA
CL – RHP Danny Ibara – 2.84 ERA
SU – LHP Tyler Byers – 2.25 ERA
SU – RHP Hector Delgadillo – 3.72 ERA
SPC – RHP Oscar Gaxiola – 1.57 ERA
MR – RHP DJ Palmer – 2.97 ERA
MR – LHP Dave Lockhart – 2.98 ERA
Bats Projected ALDS Bullpen
CL – RHP David Rodriguez – 2.13 ERA
SU – RHP Israel Rodriguez – 2.34 ERA
SU – RHP Dusty Casserino – 2.07 ERA
MR – RHP Tony Osorio – 1.57 ERA*
SPC – RHP Shane Ward – 3.68 ERA
SPC – LHP Armando Fuentes – 2.81 ERA
The Baltimore group ranked 5th in ERA in the IL and was one of the few teams to equally employ two closers, with Strachan and Ybarra each earning 13 and 14 saves, respectively. The duo however combined for 10 blown saves. While the closing situation might not be the best but the rest of the group is solid. The highlight being Gaxiola who after leaving Denver’s rotation to become a right-handed specialist leads the team in ERA at 1.57.
Quite the contrast, Washington’s greatest strength is their bullpen. The 2.82 RP ERA lead the IL. At the top, the Rodriguez duo is tough to beat. The group also boasts Casserino, one of the last remaining members of the 2003 DC Brewmaster’s team. Behind him are two specialists in Ward and Fuentes. Osorio failed to stay in the rotation but has posted a 1.06 ERA in relief.
If the games are close late, the advantage clearly goes to the Bats bullpen.
Position Players:
Bulldogs Projected ALDS Lineup and Key Bench:
SH 2B Travis Krummenn – 1.9 WAR
LH LF Oscar Sanchez – 7.5 WAR
SH RF Jimmy Lee - .2 WAR
LH C Abraham Santana – 6.3 WAR
LH 1B Terumoto Chiba - .9 WAR
SH LF Jimmy Jones – 4.7 WAR
RH SS DJ Boatner - .6 WAR
RH 3B Billy Alvarado – 3.7 WAR
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SH IF Roberto Crespin – 1.4 WAR
RH C Jimmy Scherer – 0 WAR
LH OF Dave Sanders - .4 WAR
Bats Projected ALDS Lineup
LH 3B Alex Otero – 2.1 WAR
SH RF DJ Nelsnon – 2.7 WAR
LH C Wayne Nelson – 3.0 WAR
RH SS Antonio Cardenas – 4.7 WAR
RH 1B Jon Montalbo – 2.2 WAR
RH CF Jamie Urmson – 2.6 WAR
SH 2B Tyler Winslow – 2.4 WAR
RH LF Manny Reyes – 1.2 WAR
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SH C/1B Diego Flores – 1.6 WAR
RH IF Manny Saens - .5 WAR
LH OF Pat Forester - .1 WAR
The Bulldogs boast two of the best players in the entire BLB with Sanchez and Santana. It doesn’t matter who they are facing, righty or lefty; they are a threat. However, there is depth with veterans Jones, Alvarado, Lee, Krummenn and the fan favorite Chiba returning from injury. This group finished 2nd in the IL in runs scored mainly by leading the base on balls category. Besides walks and OBP, this group finished outside the top three in all other batting categories.
The Bats lineup is missing a big piece with the injury to OF Pat Ladd who two days after the Martin announcement, was told his concussion would cost him the rest of the year. Despite the loss to their biggest bat (.915 OPS), the group still has incredible depth. While no hitter is to the level of Baltimore’s best, there is no easy out in the lineup. The lineup is also without DWI 2B Danny Romero who could return for a potential ILCS.
With Ladd’s power removed from the lineup, the Bulldogs have much more fire power by comparison.
Defense:
Baltimore finished 3rd in the IL in defensive efficiency, a category Washington lead. Each can boast plus defenders at almost every position while the Bats also have three defensive replacements off the bench. It might not be a lot but there is an advantage for the DC.
Verdict:
A few weeks after the announcement of Baltimore moving back to the Stout in 2013, ironically these two teams meet in the ILDS. The rivalry was there before due to former divisional games, proximity of teams and discrepancies on #parkfactors.
Washington appears to have an advantage with homefield, a stronger bullpen and a stronger defense, but without Ladd and Martin, Baltimore has the better lineup and rotation. If healthy, I think it goes six or seven games, likely with Washington coming out on top. However, as it stands, I think if Baltimore can steal Game One or Game Two in DC, this might be over in five.
Baltimore in Five
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