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Who will win this offseason in the BLB? Let's take a look at 2011 and make some predictions for 2012 based on records, GMs, and player personnel as it looks today.
Ale
Pawtucket is the juggernaut in this division built on the stockpiling of young players through the controversial "Tank to a Title" plan implemented by Funclown. Expect the Patriots to try and extend Victor Lemus (if the price is right) who has played well and was an expensive acquisition. If not, Stupendous becomes the best arm on the market. It's possible funclown let's Lemus walk because he's too expensive, but that means he was an extremely expensive rental. CL Edgar Fajardo will probably a $14.1m TO casualty and power hitter Jon Montalbo will walk in FA. Both will be replaced by younger players. In arby, look for SP Jarrod Nygaard and OF Israel Morales to get paid, then extended, as Pawtucket doesn't have much money tied up long term in 2013-2014.
Z and the Guides are in an interesting position after making a run to the Brewmasters. With an aging and expensive core of superstars, the Guides have a player payroll over the $100m mark and some decisions to make. With nearly $70m invested in Robby Aten, Fernando Hernandez, Adam Neubauer and Steve Suarez, Z will have to find some money to extend his many roleplayers entering FA.
It's possible that Z let's Robby Aten and his $24.5m TO go, enabling him to re-sign many of his FA roleplayers - Leary, Salazar, Angelo Gonzales, Ricky Celedon, Roberto Crespin, Robby Shumway, Dave Willis, Jon Vejar, and playoff revelation Gabriele Clareno.
With no significant arbitration cases, the Guides can focus on extending their own guys and possibly dipping into the weak FA pool for replacements. However, Z's decision on Aten is what will drive his offseason.
No stranger to striking quickly, the Mike has already moved DH only Jamie McInturf and his $10.5m to NO and acquired his replacement in cheap defensive specialist C Mike Del Rio from CAL.
The Millers are in an interesting place in the division with a nice balance of veterans, players in their prime and youngsters. Hovering around a $90m payroll, the Millers first order of business will be arbitration where cornerstones Ethan Bafford and AJ Hightower will get their arbitration demands and then have to be extended.
Outside of the onslaught of trades sure to come, the Millers roster looks pretty much set in terms of FA. They'll lose nobody major and will be limited in free agency dependent on the monster extensions most likely required to lock in Bafford and Hightower. If Mike decides to let the two arby into the future, he should have some extra money for a mid priced veteran in trade or a mid level free agent at a position of need. I'd expect Mike to trade for everything he needs.
Hartford enters the offseason with an active trade block of veterans as BDub tries to keep up with the rest of the Ale. Older and top heavy with long guaranteed contracts for Ron Wessel (2 yrs $40m), Agustin Perales (3 yrs $55m), Dave Lippert (3 yrs $42m), Geoff Mumme (2 yrs $20m), Willie Castellanos (2 years $16m), Laurent Boutin (2yrs $23m), and Danny Martinez (2yrs $15m) the Whalers are limited the next two seasons until they can unload some money.
The rest of the roster consists of minimum salaried youngsters several seasons away from their first arby contracts, so expect the Whalers to be relatively active in trying to move some of their veteran contracts while they wait for the youngsters to develop and PAW, MAI and PIT to beat each other up at the top.
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