Baseball Newbies Campus

[Cory]

I spend a lot of time looking at splits and where guys hit better. For example, Bereket Asiku was called up last season and posted a .302 BA, which was tops for my team. I figured .302 as a rookie would mean that this guy could turn into a leadoff hitter for us. He started this season at the top of our lineup and posted a .240 BA after 134 plate appearances. I started thinking that maybe he got lucky last year and he wasn't as good as I was thinking he was. I moved him down in the lineup and he started hitting like crazy. The lower in the lineup he hits, the better he does. So now, he's in the 8 slot unless we have a DH in which case he's in the 9 hole. In the 8th slot he's hitting .343 and in the 9th .364. There are other examples on my team but he's the most drastic, gaining 100 points on his BA and going from a .577 OPS batting leadoff to a .845 in the 8 hole.

So basically, I start by looking at BA and OPS and then move the guys around a little to find where they perform the best. Trial and error.

[Pat]

I spend a lot of time looking at splits and where guys hit better. For example, Bereket Asiku was called up last season and posted a .302 BA, which was tops for my team. I figured .302 as a rookie would mean that this guy could turn into a leadoff hitter for us. He started this season at the top of our lineup and posted a .240 BA after 134 plate appearances. I started thinking that maybe he got lucky last year and he wasn't as good as I was thinking he was. I moved him down in the lineup and he started hitting like crazy. The lower in the lineup he hits, the better he does. So now, he's in the 8 slot unless we have a DH in which case he's in the 9 hole. In the 8th slot he's hitting .343 and in the 9th .364. There are other examples on my team but he's the most drastic, gaining 100 points on his BA and going from a .577 OPS batting leadoff to a .845 in the 8 hole.

So basically, I start by looking at BA and OPS and then move the guys around a little to find where they perform the best. Trial and error.

This might not be causation.

Is it possible that Asiku is better in the 8th/9th hole than the leadoff? Yes.
Is it also possible that Asiku just started the season slow? Yes.

It's not an exact science by any means. And I do believe that some hitters have preferred spots in the lineup. However, a lot of how they hit has to do with the players around them as well.

[Carlos]

I like to also move guys around in the lineup depending on where they've been comfortable all season.

But while I've seen this cause a sudden boost in performance for my squads over the years especially during the middle months, I have had really bad success in September.

So it could just be warmer months benefitting my players more than their spot in the lineup. I have theories as to why my September's have always been bad (and this is across all leagues I've participated in) but neither has stepped forward as the main culprit or solution, except possibly one.

[BDub]

Asiku is a beast. Wanted him in the draft.

[Cory]

This might not be causation.

I've been thinking that same exact thing, but as long as he's hitting the way he is I see no reason to meddle with him. If he drops off again I'll try shuffling him again.

I guess my post was a long way of saying that it's not just a matter of putting high OBP guys at the top of your lineup, as moving them up there might cause their OBP to drop. Sometimes you're better off putting guys where they like to hit and reworking how your team generates runs. Gotta think outside the box instead of sticking with a certain formula that may or may not work with your current roster.

[Pat]

Gotta think outside the box instead of sticking with a certain formula that may or may not work with your current roster.

Couldn't agree more.

You also have to be ready to adapt from year to year. Some seasons players just don't have it. My lineup was constantly being altered.

[funclown]

Couldn't agree more.

You also have to be ready to adapt from year to year. Some seasons players just don't have it. My lineup was constantly being altered.

No year is the same. What worked last season almost never works the following season. It usually took me til June for the right lineup. Pitching seems to be easier, but the bullpen roles can shift a bit. If everyone wants to be "a closer" it can get hellish. Again, can't always be superstars.

Keep in mind, we off a 2-8 rating system which I believe its really 0-260 inside those ratings. Your "6" for example might not be a firm 6 instead a weak one. Our ratings system is basically rounded so it allowed alot of fluff or guess work. It really is awesome the league started with this system.(Good work Andrew and the rest who started the league) Makes you rely more on stats, splits, ect.

Then you add moral and character affecting things........lol can drive you nuts sometimes.

[Sharkn20]

No year is the same. What worked last season almost never works the following season. It usually took me til June for the right lineup. Pitching seems to be easier, but the bullpen roles can shift a bit. If everyone wants to be "a closer" it can get hellish. Again, can't always be superstars.

Keep in mind, we off a 2-8 rating system which I believe its really 0-260 inside those ratings. Your "6" for example might not be a firm 6 instead a weak one. Our ratings system is basically rounded so it allowed alot of fluff or guess work. It really is awesome the league started with this system.(Good work Andrew and the rest who started the league) Makes you rely more on stats, splits, ect.

Then you add moral and character affecting things........lol can drive you nuts sometimes.

That's true a 5 can be 4.6 or 5.4, is that correct?? Or between 5.0 and 5.9??

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[funclown]

That's true a 5 can be 4.6 or 5.4, is that correct?? Or between 5.0 and 5.9??

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my assumption would be were rounding especially when you see an "8" pop up theres a realistic chance the guy hasnt maxed out his ratings. its probably a 7.72 or something.

so even if you had a 6-5-7-6-6 hitter the one season and looks the same the next you actually probably have a 5.79/5.22/6.98/6.44/6.02 then the next season he could be 5.56/5.43/6.64/6.02/5.88 so even though at the surface he looks the same, he's not.

im talking alot of data here, but this is why stats are so important cuz its up to us to pick up on the trends. top it all off i'm not even sure how the timing of our scouts even work. you seen a guy hit .220 over a couple of seasons, but wont see his ratings drop for contact for awhile. then suddenly he's a 4 or even worse. also, what does experience points bring to the table. is there such a thing or is it myth. i've never seen a pure young team ever win it all. why is that?? i've seen 6-5-6-5-6 rookies perfrom like shit while the 5-5-6-5-5 veteran year over year kicks ass.

this is why the game is so much fun.

[Sharkn20]

my assumption would be were rounding especially when you see an "8" pop up theres a realistic chance the guy hasnt maxed out his ratings. its probably a 7.72 or something.

so even if you had a 6-5-7-6-6 hitter the one season and looks the same the next you actually probably have a 5.79/5.22/6.98/6.44/6.02 then the next season he could be 5.56/5.43/6.64/6.02/5.88 so even though at the surface he looks the same, he's not.

im talking alot of data here, but this is why stats are so important cuz its up to us to pick up on the trends. top it all off i'm not even sure how the timing of our scouts even work. you seen a guy hit .220 over a couple of seasons, but wont see his ratings drop for contact for awhile. the suddenly he's a 4 or even worse. also, what does experience points bring to the table. is there such a thing or is it myth. i've never seen a pure young team ever win it all. why is that?? i've seen 6-5-6-5-6 rookies perfrom like shit while the 5-5-6-5-5 veteran year over year kicks ass.

this is why the game is so much fun.

So much frustration you meant :)

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[funclown]

So much frustration you meant :)

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I think the summary on all this is if your trying to find "the magic bullet" it aint going to happen. Top view you build your concept, then season to season have to adjust your strategy. I think just "one basic concept" is boring and it can lead to stale team.

[Sharkn20]

I think the summary on all this is if your trying to find "the magic bullet" it aint going to happen. Top view you build your concept, then season to season have to adjust your strategy. I think just "one basic concept" is boring and it can lead to stale team.

Bloody dice rolls

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[Sharkn20]

When do we consider that a player is playing above level of Replacement? When his WAR is above 1.0 or 0.0???

This question is for the Cost Efficiency Players table, all players with WAR above 1.0 is costing less than their actual salary, however players below 1.0 are costing MORE than their actual salary... Am a little confused in here.

Thanks guys

[Carlos]

When do we consider that a player is playing above level of Replacement? When his WAR is above 1.0 or 0.0???

This question is for the Cost Efficiency Players table, all players with WAR above 1.0 is costing less than their actual salary, however players below 1.0 are costing MORE than their actual salary... Am a little confused in here.

Thanks guys

That's showing you how much you're spending per WAR.

So guys with negative are costing you more money because they aren't worth their salary.

Guys above 1.0 are playing efficiently. They cost you less per WAR. You're spending less for their production.

[Sharkn20]

That's showing you how much you're spending per WAR.

So guys with negative are costing you more money because they aren't worth their salary.

Guys above 1.0 are playing efficiently. They cost you less per WAR. You're spending less for their production.

Therefore, for a player playing above the replacement level has to have +1.0 WAR?

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