IL 1/3 of the season. Races taking shape

[Delandis]

I have a feeling being in first and running the league won't get me many answers.

I'm at work.

[Pat]

Usually in June you can start getting a feel who's going to be there at the end. Here's Funclowns cyrstal ball:

IL Stout:

As expected Death Valley on top being chased by Washington. Washington putting up the good fight and will harass Death Valley to the bitter end. Sadly I think pure talents wins out. Seattle and Morgantown least aren't being pushed around. I hope least one team can stick around by September.


IL Bock:

This season Windy City didn't allow the other 3 to take an early lead. So far this race feels boring. Barring a major injury I don't see any of the three challenging the 7 year reign of Windy City. Really shocked at Carolina's play and the obsession of the 6 man rotation when clearly one doesn't belong. Be interesting if Spot can mesh his veteran team in time for a late season run. Davenport is attempted the horn grown route since 2005.


IL Porter:

Is Batavia an every other year team? Sure feels that way. Philly may finally be making a move, but it's probably more a Wildcard push. I don't expect Baltimore to sit here and take it. Cali looking good the another top 5 pick.

Wildcard:

Unclear which is a good sign for an exciting race. After the big three no one seems dominant. Look for one team from each division to make a play in September, but could be as much as 5 teams. Going to reach and call Philly on this, but that's just dice rolling.

I feel like the IL has the three favorites and then the rest contending for the Wild Card. Death Valley, Windy City and Batavia are easily the three best teams in the IL and probably three of the four best teams in all of the BLB. Their rotations rank #1, #2 and #6 and their lineups have impact hitters. The interesting battle will be for the Wild Card with favorites Washington, Davenport and Baltimore all playing in separate divisions. However, I wouldn't be so quick to count out Carolina, Morgantown, Philadelphia or Seattle. Not that it matters as I would expect the Wild Card winner to be a long shot to even get out of the first round.

I think Funclown's prediction of Philly is definitely a dice roll. My pick is Carolina. Currently .500 the Tobs have a lot of young talent sprinkled across the roster but they also made a handful of moves in Free-Agency and via trade that I think will start to gel together as the season goes on. I obviously like my team as well but with a positional strength rotation rating of #19, I think we will fall off as the season goes long.

[fsquid]

I don't see how I catch up, but thanks.

[funclown]

I don't see how I catch up, but thanks.

Well your only 5 games out of the wild card race and its not even Allstar break.

As example: Carolina was 8 games+ in first place in mid June in 2008 to Windy City before being trampled in September by the Playboy fright train.

See there's hope! Does that raise your spirits up???

[Delandis]

As example: Carolina was 8 games+ in first place in mid June in 2008 to Windy City before being trampled in September by the Playboy fright train.

See there's hope! Does that raise your spirits up???

See that was all Funclown.

[fsquid]

Well your only 5 games out of the wild card race and its not even Allstar break.

As example: Carolina was 8 games+ in first place in mid June in 2008 to Windy City before being trampled in September by the Playboy fright train.

See there's hope! Does that raise your spirits up???

no that just reminds me how I prematurely ejaculated last season.

[Pat]

Seven weeks of baseball left and there are still eight teams within reach of a playoff spot.

In the Stout, Death Valley leads the division three games ahead of Washington. With six head-to-head games remaining, anything can happen. In the Bock and Porter, Windy City and Batavia both hold 10 games leads in their divisions and are near locks to win their divisions. The Wild Card remains intense. Washington is leading Davenport and Carolina by just 2.5 games, Balitmore by 5 and Morgantown by 7.

[Carlos]

Love the IL race. I just picture ESPN going nuts over it.

[funclown]

Love the IL race. I just picture ESPN going nuts over it.

Only if they are all east coast teams.

[Carlos]

Only if they are all east coast teams.

Good point.

[Pat]

I think the division leaders will hold on.

Davenport jumps into the Wild Card lead after a 5-1 home week against New Orleans and Toronto. Let's see what the Brawlers can do with the lead...This week they travel to Los Angeles and New York.

[Pat]

IL Playoff Update

1. Windy City is 11 games up on Davenport. Projected 100% to win the division.
2. Batavia is 9 games up on Baltimore. Projected 99.8% to win the division.
3. Washington is 2 games up on Death Valley. Projected 79.8% to win division.
4. Washington, Death Valley, Davenport, Baltimore and Carolina are within four games of each other. This is where to excitement is.

Washington's Playoff Odds: 92.2% - Remaining Schedule: 3 vs. PHI (.469), 3 @ Batavia (.587), 3 @ Carolina (.524), 4 @ Seattle (.482), 3 vs. Death Valley (.538), 3 vs. Morgantown (.462). 9 home games, 10 on the road. Total schedule (.490)

Death Valley's Playoff Odds: 57.6% - Remaining Schedule: 3 vs. Batavia (.587), 3 vs. LAM (.434), 3 @ Windy City (.608), 4 @ Morgantown (.462), 3 @ Washington (.552), 3 vs. Seattle (.482). 9 home, 10 road. Total schedule (.502)

Davenport's Playoff Odds: 21.8% - Remaining Schedule: 3 vs. Seattle (.482), 3 vs. Baltimore (.524), 3 @ Batavia (.587), 4 @ Windy City (.608), 3 @ Los Alamos (.434), 3 vs. Carolina (.524). 9 home, 10 road. Total schedule (.514)

Baltimore's Playoff Odds: 18.3% - Remaining Schedule: 3 vs. Carolina (.524), 3 @ Davenport (.531), 3 @ Morgantown (.462), 4 vs. California (.406), 3 vs. Philly (.469), 3 @ Batavia (.587). 10 home, 9 road. Total schedule: (.482)

Carolina's Playoff Odds: 10.2% - Remaining Schedule: 3 @ Baltimore (.524), 3 @ Seattle (.420), 3 vs. Washington (.552), 4 vs. Los Alamos (.434), 3 vs. Windy City (.608), 3 @ Davenport (.531). 10 home, 9 road. Total schedule: (.508)

This week is huge. Odds are, one of Davenport-Baltimore-Carolina could potentially fall out of the IL Wild Card picture. Baltimore hosts Carolina and then travels to Davenport. If the Bulldogs has a great week, they probably jump to #2 or potentially #1 in the Wild Card standings. Davenport and Carolina both play the same schedule (Baltimore/Seattle), but Davenport has six home games this week, while Carolina has to do it on the road. The pressure is really on the Tobs.

Two fortunate scheduling breaks for Carolina and Baltimore, however. Odds are Batavia and Windy City will be resting players during the final week. Both the Tobs and Bulldogs could fortunately play their toughest remaining opponents back ups. Also, a small advantage but those same teams, Carolina and Baltimore, are the only contenders with more home games left than road.

You can guarantee none of this will be settled until the final week.

Can someone say...Lonnie Coleman?

[umd]

Good write up. Unless the sims somehow flip back our way out of nowhere, we are toast.

[Pat]

Good write up. Unless the sims somehow flip back our way out of nowhere, we are toast.

You have a .569 winning percentage at home. You have your rotation in perfect order to host Batavia and Los Alamos this week. You also have a one game lead in the Wild Card. Considering that Baltimore, Davenport and Carolina all play each other, unless you completely fall on your face this week, you should still be in a good spot after this sim.

And considering I host the all of a sudden kinda hot Philly, who have won six of their last eight, including a sweep against you...and then I have to travel to Batavia....you could easily take back the Stout this sim.

Nothing is settled.

[umd]

You have a .569 winning percentage at home. You have your rotation in perfect order to host Batavia and Los Alamos this week. You also have a one game lead in the Wild Card. Considering that Baltimore, Davenport and Carolina all play each other, unless you completely fall on your face this week, you should still be in a good spot after this sim.

And considering I host the all of a sudden kinda hot Philly, who have won six of their last eight, including a sweep against you...and then I have to travel to Batavia....you could easily take back the Stout this sim.

Nothing is settled.

The majority of my roster is cold, or has been cold (just coming off) for the better part of 5-6 sims.