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Projected Lineup:
1 – Nari Garin 1B
2 – Miguel Angel Monchez RF
3 – Heishu Shiraishi CF
4 – Mal Brady C
5 – Shawn Burton LF
6 – Jeremiah Kelly 2B
7 – Shawn Nolan SS
8 – Sammy Knowlton 3B
This lineup isn't the best in the IL but it's far from the worst. At the top Garin isn't your traditional lead-off hitter but will be given the job to start 2000. After two call-ups and 146 career BLB games, the Bats will need him to improve on his .326 OBP if he wants to stay there. In the two-hole, Monchez provides a decent bat and good base-running. In his three seasons in D.C. he has stolen 62 bases while being caught just 12 times. ROY runner-up Shiraishi will slide back into the third spot and hopefully not suffer from a sophomore slump. I don't think he hits again at a .947 OPS clip for a full season but hitting third, with protection, I'm expecting 40 doubles, 25 homers, 20 steals, 100 RBI and 100 runs. “The Crow” returns to hit clean-up and defend behind the plate. The free-swinger is entering his fourth full BLB season and is expected to improve on a 1999 season that saw career lows across the board after breaking his foot. A late Free-Agency signing, Burton is a surprise return to the Bats. After declining the Bats arbitration of $8.9, Burton struck out in Free-Agency and returns on a one-year, $9 deal. Kelly struggled in 1999 with injuries and I fully expect him '97-'98 form. Nolan is entering his last year of cost-controlled arbitration and after three straight sub .700 OPS seasons, I'm hopeful the impending FA motivates him a little. Coming in at the final spot, Knowlton will be given first dibs to defend the hot corner. Last year he lost a bit of playing time to other options but won the job back at the end of summer. Defensively this isn't my best Bats unit but should be one of the best in the BLB.
Projected Roation:
1 – Nakazo Sasaki LH
2 – Troy Hanback RH
3 – Ivan Gutierrez LH
4 – Loren Washington RH
5 – Kel Murphy LH
6 - Travis DuFour RH
This might be my best rotation since the Bat Championship Era. Sasaki is the first true ace on the staff since Derek Tucker was sent packing. Overpaid, but I think his leadership, innings and just overall knowledge will really benefit the youngsters. Hanback has quietly grown into one of the best pitchers in the IL. After two straight seasons of sub 3.25 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, the sky is the limit for the 26-year-old. Gutierrez makes a surprise return (during the off-season) to the top 20 pitchers list. He is always an injury concern but with high expectations for the post-season he may be used semi-sparingly early on. Another late Free-Agent signing, Washington returns to the IL after a brief DL stint with Pawtucket. I have always been a huge fan of control-movement-high GB pitchers. It's possible Washington could have a career year at 33. Kel “Fuckin” Murphy was the #2 starter in my rotation this time last year. Now down at #5, he can relax and pitch more comfortably as he did in 1998, as opposed to last season. The final spot falls to DuFour, who now at 27-years-old, has no more excuses. Despite lofty praise from scouts, DuFour has never lived up to the billing of a top pick. This could be his year.
Projected Pen:
CL – Clarence Ortiz LH
SU – Edgar Salazar RH
SU – CJ Skinner RH
MR – Don Bolton RH
MR – Willie Watkins RH
MR – CJ Yount RH
MR – Tom Downs RH
This might be the best bullpen I have ever thrown out for Spring Training. Ortiz and Salazar form possibly the best LH-RH duo in the BLB. Skinner lead all BLB relievers in ERA last year, as a rookie. Bolton and Watkins were drafted as closer flame-throwers who now pitch middle relief. Both had career years in 1999. Yount will be the lone rookie of the group. A former second-round pick and top 100 prospect, Yount is now 25 but still has a little room to grow. He isn't a lock to make the 25 man roster but he will be given every chance now that he has spent the last two years in Triple-A. I think Downs was miscast as a starter last year. He now moves to the MR/Spot-Starter/Mop-Up role. The group could probably use a second left-hander but besides that, I'm very excited for this groups potential.
Projected Bench:
C/1B – Artie Walker
C/1B/LF – Doug Briggs
IF – Yong-Koo Lim
OF – Todd Day
Walker has been the subject of trade rumors all off-season but as of now remains a Bat. Briggs could steal the back-up catchers spot from Walker with a good ST showing but no matter what will remain with the club as the defensive replacement for the average-at-best Brady. Lim stole the starting 3B job from Knowlton for a bit last season but is a better fit as a platoon utility. Day will have quite a bit of competition for the 4th OF spot, but I think he improves after his third BLB call-up.
Hopefuls:
IF Pete Phelps
IF Adrian Prado
OF Gene Roberson
OF Jimmy Bond
RP Willis Cavazos
SP Seth Brewer
SP Gereard Champagne
SP Seth Schnitzler
The players with realistic chances to make the roster are probably just Phelps, Roberson, Bond, Cavazos and Brewer, but the following list are all on the D.C. 40-man roster. Phelps has proven in the past to be a decent utility player. Roberson was brought in on a one-year deal from Windy City and the Bats are hoping a change of scenery will get him hitting closer to what my scout thinks of him. Bond was a Rule V selection and will have to outplay Roberson and Day to likely make the team. The bullpen is stacked already but if there is an injury, Cavazos sits on deck. Brewer was set to be the 6th starter before the Loren Washington signing. Like Cavazos in the pen, Brewer is the next man up in the rotation.
Rookies getting a taste of the BLB:
IF Tyler McLouth
OF Dave Miller
OF BJ Jobe
SP Manny Medina
RP Jon Vejar
RP Ron Kimpton
I expect all these players to play big parts in the future of this organization but I don't think any will be given a realistic chance to make this roster out of the gate. All the hitters need more seasoning and my pitching staff is too loaded to find room for unproven players. McLouth and Jobe are predicted to be opening day starters in 2001, so expect a call-up at some point.
Overall:
This is actually a very similar group to the 1999 team that failed to make the playoffs. However, after being one of the worst teams in the league through the first 75% of the season, the Bats were at full-strength to end the year and were one of the toughest clubs in the BLB September-October. I expect that momentum to continue into the new millennium. The only huge addition is Sasaki. Roberson and Bond might not make the roster, and Burton while acquired in FA, was on the team last year. Loren Washington is an interesting addition to already deep rotation. Besides them, this is nearly the same team. However, the team showed maturity down the stretch and with one of the youngest clubs in the BLB, this is a team and organization on the rise.
No team is without questions, however. Was trading away Don Hudson the right move with Nari Garin still unproven at first? Is the team going to go into the season with three catchers on the roster again? How much does Sasaki have left in the tank after pitching 225 innings at 36? With the starting infield, 2B, 3B, SS, all hitting at the bottom of the order, will this team score enough? Who are going to be the backup outfielders?
If you break it down, I think this club is above average in the rotation, above average in the lineup, arguably the best bullpen, one of the better defensive clubs and one of the deepest organizations in baseball. A good handful of my top prospects are waiting in Triple-A and that roster is filled with AAAA types to carry a small load if injuries do occur. OSA pre-season has us as the best team in the league and I'm sure Shavermetrics will likely be a fan as well. A 30-win turn around would be something unseen so I will temper my personal expectations. Last year we went on a run to try for .500 and fell short. This year, I think we should compete for the Wild Card and could compete for the division. Maybe.
Projected Lineup:
1 – Nari Garin 1B
2 – Miguel Angel Monchez RF
3 – Heishu Shiraishi CF
4 – Mal Brady C
5 – Shawn Burton LF
6 – Jeremiah Kelly 2B
7 – Shawn Nolan SS
8 – Sammy Knowlton 3B
This lineup isn't the best in the IL but it's far from the worst. At the top Garin isn't your traditional lead-off hitter but will be given the job to start 2000. After two call-ups and 146 career BLB games, the Bats will need him to improve on his .326 OBP if he wants to stay there. In the two-hole, Monchez provides a decent bat and good base-running. In his three seasons in D.C. he has stolen 62 bases while being caught just 12 times. ROY runner-up Shiraishi will slide back into the third spot and hopefully not suffer from a sophomore slump. I don't think he hits again at a .947 OPS clip for a full season but hitting third, with protection, I'm expecting 40 doubles, 25 homers, 20 steals, 100 RBI and 100 runs. “The Crow” returns to hit clean-up and defend behind the plate. The free-swinger is entering his fourth full BLB season and is expected to improve on a 1999 season that saw career lows across the board after breaking his foot. A late Free-Agency signing, Burton is a surprise return to the Bats. After declining the Bats arbitration of $8.9, Burton struck out in Free-Agency and returns on a one-year, $9 deal. Kelly struggled in 1999 with injuries and I fully expect him '97-'98 form. Nolan is entering his last year of cost-controlled arbitration and after three straight sub .700 OPS seasons, I'm hopeful the impending FA motivates him a little. Coming in at the final spot, Knowlton will be given first dibs to defend the hot corner. Last year he lost a bit of playing time to other options but won the job back at the end of summer. Defensively this isn't my best Bats unit but should be one of the best in the BLB.
Projected Roation:
1 – Nakazo Sasaki LH
2 – Troy Hanback RH
3 – Ivan Gutierrez LH
4 – Loren Washington RH
5 – Kel Murphy LH
6 - Travis DuFour RH
This might be my best rotation since the Bat Championship Era. Sasaki is the first true ace on the staff since Derek Tucker was sent packing. Overpaid, but I think his leadership, innings and just overall knowledge will really benefit the youngsters. Hanback has quietly grown into one of the best pitchers in the IL. After two straight seasons of sub 3.25 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, the sky is the limit for the 26-year-old. Gutierrez makes a surprise return (during the off-season) to the top 20 pitchers list. He is always an injury concern but with high expectations for the post-season he may be used semi-sparingly early on. Another late Free-Agent signing, Washington returns to the IL after a brief DL stint with Pawtucket. I have always been a huge fan of control-movement-high GB pitchers. It's possible Washington could have a career year at 33. Kel “Fuckin” Murphy was the #2 starter in my rotation this time last year. Now down at #5, he can relax and pitch more comfortably as he did in 1998, as opposed to last season. The final spot falls to DuFour, who now at 27-years-old, has no more excuses. Despite lofty praise from scouts, DuFour has never lived up to the billing of a top pick. This could be his year.
Projected Pen:
CL – Clarence Ortiz LH
SU – Edgar Salazar RH
SU – CJ Skinner RH
MR – Don Bolton RH
MR – Willie Watkins RH
MR – CJ Yount RH
MR – Tom Downs RH
This might be the best bullpen I have ever thrown out for Spring Training. Ortiz and Salazar form possibly the best LH-RH duo in the BLB. Skinner lead all BLB relievers in ERA last year, as a rookie. Bolton and Watkins were drafted as closer flame-throwers who now pitch middle relief. Both had career years in 1999. Yount will be the lone rookie of the group. A former second-round pick and top 100 prospect, Yount is now 25 but still has a little room to grow. He isn't a lock to make the 25 man roster but he will be given every chance now that he has spent the last two years in Triple-A. I think Downs was miscast as a starter last year. He now moves to the MR/Spot-Starter/Mop-Up role. The group could probably use a second left-hander but besides that, I'm very excited for this groups potential.
Projected Bench:
C/1B – Artie Walker
C/1B/LF – Doug Briggs
IF – Yong-Koo Lim
OF – Todd Day
Walker has been the subject of trade rumors all off-season but as of now remains a Bat. Briggs could steal the back-up catchers spot from Walker with a good ST showing but no matter what will remain with the club as the defensive replacement for the average-at-best Brady. Lim stole the starting 3B job from Knowlton for a bit last season but is a better fit as a platoon utility. Day will have quite a bit of competition for the 4th OF spot, but I think he improves after his third BLB call-up.
Hopefuls:
IF Pete Phelps
IF Adrian Prado
OF Gene Roberson
OF Jimmy Bond
RP Willis Cavazos
SP Seth Brewer
SP Gereard Champagne
SP Seth Schnitzler
The players with realistic chances to make the roster are probably just Phelps, Roberson, Bond, Cavazos and Brewer, but the following list are all on the D.C. 40-man roster. Phelps has proven in the past to be a decent utility player. Roberson was brought in on a one-year deal from Windy City and the Bats are hoping a change of scenery will get him hitting closer to what my scout thinks of him. Bond was a Rule V selection and will have to outplay Roberson and Day to likely make the team. The bullpen is stacked already but if there is an injury, Cavazos sits on deck. Brewer was set to be the 6th starter before the Loren Washington signing. Like Cavazos in the pen, Brewer is the next man up in the rotation.
Rookies getting a taste of the BLB:
IF Tyler McLouth
OF Dave Miller
OF BJ Jobe
SP Manny Medina
RP Jon Vejar
RP Ron Kimpton
I expect all these players to play big parts in the future of this organization but I don't think any will be given a realistic chance to make this roster out of the gate. All the hitters need more seasoning and my pitching staff is too loaded to find room for unproven players. McLouth and Jobe are predicted to be opening day starters in 2001, so expect a call-up at some point.
Overall:
This is actually a very similar group to the 1999 team that failed to make the playoffs. However, after being one of the worst teams in the league through the first 75% of the season, the Bats were at full-strength to end the year and were one of the toughest clubs in the BLB September-October. I expect that momentum to continue into the new millennium. The only huge addition is Sasaki. Roberson and Bond might not make the roster, and Burton while acquired in FA, was on the team last year. Loren Washington is an interesting addition to already deep rotation. Besides them, this is nearly the same team. However, the team showed maturity down the stretch and with one of the youngest clubs in the BLB, this is a team and organization on the rise.
No team is without questions, however. Was trading away Don Hudson the right move with Nari Garin still unproven at first? Is the team going to go into the season with three catchers on the roster again? How much does Sasaki have left in the tank after pitching 225 innings at 36? With the starting infield, 2B, 3B, SS, all hitting at the bottom of the order, will this team score enough? Who are going to be the backup outfielders?
If you break it down, I think this club is above average in the rotation, above average in the lineup, arguably the best bullpen, one of the better defensive clubs and one of the deepest organizations in baseball. A good handful of my top prospects are waiting in Triple-A and that roster is filled with AAAA types to carry a small load if injuries do occur. OSA pre-season has us as the best team in the league and I'm sure Shavermetrics will likely be a fan as well. A 30-win turn around would be something unseen so I will temper my personal expectations. Last year we went on a run to try for .500 and fell short. This year, I think we should compete for the Wild Card and could compete for the division. Maybe.
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