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Davenport Brawlers – 61-56, pyt diff 0
Home: 35-26
Road: 26-30
Last 10: 4-6
Rem opp win%: .473 Playoff Odds: 75%
Injury news: SP Brian Hanrahan out for the season with elbow injury.
Games against IL WC contenders: 3 vs. BAL, 9 @ LAM, 3 vs. WAS
Analysis: If it wasn't for the "Giant Killer" injury, it would be a much safer bet to pick the Brawlers. Unfortunately, he was having one of the best seasons in the IL and had only lost one game since May 5th. Still, they have the weakest remaining schedule and a head start in the standings. However, they have home stands against Washington and Baltimore but must play nine road games at Los Alamos. The recent acquisition of Rex Morgan has provided a huge boost but also don't understatement the addition of lefty pitcher Victor Munoz. He has been red hot out of the pen after the trade and likely slides into the rotation spot lefty by Hanrahan.
Morgantown Mohawks – 59-58, pyt diff 2
Home 28-35
Road: 31-23
Last 10: 4-6
Rem opp win%: .491 Playoff Odds: 13.2%
Injury news: SP Joe Toapanta to return from DL in three weeks
Games against WC contenders: 4 vs. WAS, 3 @ WAS, 3 vs. BAL
Analysis: Morgantown has never made the playoffs but this might be the year. They have a sub .500 remaining schedule and don't have to play Los Alamos or Davenport for the rest of the season. The return of Taopanta in three weeks could be a difference maker. The Mohawks have been one of the best road teams in the BLB and have nine more road games than home remaining. They open the next sim with 12 straight on the road, putting that "good road team" theory to a test.
Los Alamos Bandits – 58-59, pyt diff 5
Home: 29-32
Road: 29-27
Last 10: 5-5
Rem opp win%: .481 Playoff Odds: 7.5%
Injury news: No significant injuries since the first week of July.
Games against WC contenders: 9 vs. DAV, 3 @ WAS
Analysis: The Bandits have been the "luckiest" team thus far with a +5 pyt. record. They also have the easiest interleague schedule playing Syracuse and Indy. Depending on how you look at it, those nine home games against Davenport are either a really good thing or bad thing.
Washington Bats - 56-61, pyt diff -3
Home: 32-26
Road: 24-35
Last 10: 4-6
Rem opp win%: .519 Playoff Odds: 3.2%
Injury news: SP Derek Tucker out for season. LF Tyrone Abbott out one month.
Games against WC contenders: 3 vs. BAL, 3 @ BAL, 4 @ MOR, 3 vs. LAM
Analysis: The Bats face the toughest remaining schedule and the injuries to Tyrone Abbott and Derek Tucker could be nails in the coffin. The Bats due however finish the year with seven straight home games including four the end the year against a IL-Best clinched Virginia, who could be resting regulars.
Baltimore Bulldogs - 54-63, pyt diff -3
Home: 31-37
Road: 23-26
Last 10: 3-7
Rem opp win%: .504 Playoff Odds: 1.5%
Injury news: 2B Sze Zhu lost for the season last week to arm injury.
Games against WC contenders: 3 @ DAV, 3 @ WAS, 3 vs. WAS, 3 @ MOR
Analysis: Baltimore has gone 15-31 over the last two months and appear to be done. They still qualify statisctically but it's a long shot. Baltimore also has 12 straight road games, Pawtucket, Maine, Davenport and D.C., which probably ends their slim chances.
One GM's Prediction: Right away, I think you can cross Baltimore off the list. Worst record and played poorly as of late. Also, I think Davenport will fall short. They are a much better home team than away, and those nine games at Los Alamos will surely do them in. Losing Hanrahan will prove to be a huge loss. Morgantown has no experience in a playoff chase and I think they fall off over the next two weeks, maybe three. No Toapanta and four straight road series won't be easy on the Mohawks. The injuries to Tucker and Abbott would be disasterous for most teams but Tucker has only pitched 12 starts and Abbott immediately gets replaced by top hitting prospect Mal "The Crow" Brady in the lineup. However, with the toughest remaining schedule in the group, the Bats are not the team either. That leaves the Los Alamos Bandits. They have the second easiest schedule remaining, been relatively healthy and if you take out a 8-17 stretch in late Spring, the Bandits have one of the best records in all of baseball. They will prove that most of the time, it's better to be lucky than good.
Davenport Brawlers – 61-56, pyt diff 0
Home: 35-26
Road: 26-30
Last 10: 4-6
Rem opp win%: .473 Playoff Odds: 75%
Injury news: SP Brian Hanrahan out for the season with elbow injury.
Games against IL WC contenders: 3 vs. BAL, 9 @ LAM, 3 vs. WAS
Analysis: If it wasn't for the "Giant Killer" injury, it would be a much safer bet to pick the Brawlers. Unfortunately, he was having one of the best seasons in the IL and had only lost one game since May 5th. Still, they have the weakest remaining schedule and a head start in the standings. However, they have home stands against Washington and Baltimore but must play nine road games at Los Alamos. The recent acquisition of Rex Morgan has provided a huge boost but also don't understatement the addition of lefty pitcher Victor Munoz. He has been red hot out of the pen after the trade and likely slides into the rotation spot lefty by Hanrahan.
Morgantown Mohawks – 59-58, pyt diff 2
Home 28-35
Road: 31-23
Last 10: 4-6
Rem opp win%: .491 Playoff Odds: 13.2%
Injury news: SP Joe Toapanta to return from DL in three weeks
Games against WC contenders: 4 vs. WAS, 3 @ WAS, 3 vs. BAL
Analysis: Morgantown has never made the playoffs but this might be the year. They have a sub .500 remaining schedule and don't have to play Los Alamos or Davenport for the rest of the season. The return of Taopanta in three weeks could be a difference maker. The Mohawks have been one of the best road teams in the BLB and have nine more road games than home remaining. They open the next sim with 12 straight on the road, putting that "good road team" theory to a test.
Los Alamos Bandits – 58-59, pyt diff 5
Home: 29-32
Road: 29-27
Last 10: 5-5
Rem opp win%: .481 Playoff Odds: 7.5%
Injury news: No significant injuries since the first week of July.
Games against WC contenders: 9 vs. DAV, 3 @ WAS
Analysis: The Bandits have been the "luckiest" team thus far with a +5 pyt. record. They also have the easiest interleague schedule playing Syracuse and Indy. Depending on how you look at it, those nine home games against Davenport are either a really good thing or bad thing.
Washington Bats - 56-61, pyt diff -3
Home: 32-26
Road: 24-35
Last 10: 4-6
Rem opp win%: .519 Playoff Odds: 3.2%
Injury news: SP Derek Tucker out for season. LF Tyrone Abbott out one month.
Games against WC contenders: 3 vs. BAL, 3 @ BAL, 4 @ MOR, 3 vs. LAM
Analysis: The Bats face the toughest remaining schedule and the injuries to Tyrone Abbott and Derek Tucker could be nails in the coffin. The Bats due however finish the year with seven straight home games including four the end the year against a IL-Best clinched Virginia, who could be resting regulars.
Baltimore Bulldogs - 54-63, pyt diff -3
Home: 31-37
Road: 23-26
Last 10: 3-7
Rem opp win%: .504 Playoff Odds: 1.5%
Injury news: 2B Sze Zhu lost for the season last week to arm injury.
Games against WC contenders: 3 @ DAV, 3 @ WAS, 3 vs. WAS, 3 @ MOR
Analysis: Baltimore has gone 15-31 over the last two months and appear to be done. They still qualify statisctically but it's a long shot. Baltimore also has 12 straight road games, Pawtucket, Maine, Davenport and D.C., which probably ends their slim chances.
One GM's Prediction: Right away, I think you can cross Baltimore off the list. Worst record and played poorly as of late. Also, I think Davenport will fall short. They are a much better home team than away, and those nine games at Los Alamos will surely do them in. Losing Hanrahan will prove to be a huge loss. Morgantown has no experience in a playoff chase and I think they fall off over the next two weeks, maybe three. No Toapanta and four straight road series won't be easy on the Mohawks. The injuries to Tucker and Abbott would be disasterous for most teams but Tucker has only pitched 12 starts and Abbott immediately gets replaced by top hitting prospect Mal "The Crow" Brady in the lineup. However, with the toughest remaining schedule in the group, the Bats are not the team either. That leaves the Los Alamos Bandits. They have the second easiest schedule remaining, been relatively healthy and if you take out a 8-17 stretch in late Spring, the Bandits have one of the best records in all of baseball. They will prove that most of the time, it's better to be lucky than good.
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