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SHAVERMETRICS 1992 - Pilsner Division

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  • SHAVERMETRICS 1992 - Pilsner Division



    Pilsner Division
    Divisional Rank: #1 in Domestic League (#1 in BLB)

    Denver Bulls



    Finish: 1<sup>st</sup> in Pilsner
    Shavermetrics Rank (DL): #2

    What We Like: The Pen is Mightier – While people laughed as the Bulls signed reliever after reliever this off-season, the bottom line is they come into the 1992 season with an airtight bullpen filled with Veteran performers. Though some may have lost a little zip on their fastball, when you have over 1200 career saves in your ‘pen, your starters suddenly have a little wiggle room.

    What We Fear: The Cap – The downside to loading up on Veteran relievers is that they pushed the Bulls’ salary cap number all the way up to $92.0. While safely under, they may have handcuffed themselves for deadline deals or early season deals should some of their big bats come up lame. With injury history of Romo and Browning, and the spring training knick to Zamarida, they’ll be holding their collective breath in Denver.

    What To Watch: Short-order Cook – T.J. Cook looks to be another fast-track ’91 draftee that should see action this season. Though he may not get the call directly out of Spring Training, he’ll no doubt be part of the Bulls’ rotation before the end of the year.


    Indianapolis Clowns




    Finish: 2<sup>nd</sup> in Pilsner – DL Wildcard
    Shavermetrics Rank (DL): #3

    What We Like: Paper Champions – While we’re yet to see how it translates on the field, the Clowns appear to have one of the best starting rotations in the DL – on paper. Though Manny Mendez appeared to be ready to take on the full-time ACE role, Indy went out and added Ben Irvin and Ezequiel Parongao in the off-season. However, the one to watch may be Raul Gonzalez. Gonzalez with the key prospect in the 1989 deal that sent Everardo Gremades from Indy to Virginia.

    What We Fear: Great Expectations – It’s hard to find a lot of holes on this team. Rotation looks solid. ‘Pen is fine. They have one of the best players in the DL anchoring their lineup. They’re financially sound. They’re coming off an 89 win season. The team is in good shape. It may be that the only team that can take down the Clowns… are the Clowns.

    What To Watch: Good Knight, Indy! – It’s hard to argue that Rex Knight isn’t the brightest young offensive star in the BLB. But, with his new 4 year extension, some fear that the 27 year old OF could get lazy. And do we dare the mention the dreaded “CF Curse” that “Thrifty” has managed to duck in his first 5 seasons?


    Syracuse Slammers



    Finish: 3<sup>rd</sup> in Pilsner
    Shavermetrics Rank (DL): #5

    What We Like: Go For It – It’s hard to ever complain about a team that goes for it in the BLB. The Slammers have clearly taken that tact this off-season in making blockbuster deals all winter to bring in perennial All-Stars like Geoff Scott and Conan Wilkerson. Revamping his team almost from top to bottom, program AND jersey sales should be at an all-time high in Syracuse this season.

    What We Fear: It’s Not How You Start, It’s How You Finish – While the offense and the rotation in Syracuse look solid, Shavermetrics has real concern about what this team can and will do in innings 7, 8 and 9. With the talent in this division, the ability to close the door after a quality start will be imperative to claiming a playoff spot. That’s where our numbers show the Slammers falling short of the “second season.”

    What To Watch: Change of Address – Scott and Wilkerson jump from the IL to the DL in moves that will be watched closely due to their stature. While talented players have made that jump later in their career, this may be the first major move for players of this caliber in their primes. Conventional wisdom says the Wilkerson should improve dramatically, however, the extra innings do put his “fragile” tag in question.


    Dallas Snappers



    Finish: 4th in Pilsner
    Shavermetrics Rank (DL): #9

    What We Like: Fresh Start – The Snappers starting rotation was what held them back in ’91. Outside of Superstar Denver Brode, Big D needed to make improvements across the board. They addressed that need by bringing in three new members to the rotation – Ivan Perez, Jerry Collins and Art Casey – all of whom have the potential for double-digit wins. If Brode can anchor the Staff, they could have enough offense to sneak up on some teams. However, the Pilsner division may be too high a mountain to climb to sniff the playoffs.

    What We Fear: Burnout – Dallas had a rough off-season. When some important paperwork was not filed on time, they were left in a mad scramble to deal some of their highest level prospects. Though they managed to parlay that error into some quality talent, it left their immediate future a little shell-shocked. Combine that with what could potentially long season getting knocked around in their division, the Snappers will need to be patient and learn to take a punch.

    What To Watch: Rule V Revenge – While the Rule V draft incident hit the Dallas farm system hard, it also brought a former 4<sup>th</sup> overall pick to the Lonestar State with the Snappers acquisition of CF Rod Miners. Though tagged as injury-prone, Miners still has the raw skills to produce at this level.
    The Great One!

    To many rings to count...

  • #2
    BOOOOOOO!!!!!!
    Dallas Snappers

    Pilsner Champs: 1984, 1986, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998
    DL Wild card: 1992

    Comment


    • #3
      Why should Wilkerson continue to get better? Because he's about to enter his prime? Or, because he's got better talent around him?
      California Kodiaks - GM - 1982-2013
      Brewmaster's Cups: 1987
      Import League Champions: 1987, 1989
      Porter Division Champions:
      1986, 1987, 1989, 1999
      , 2000
      Import League Wild Card: 2001, 2003, 2004

      Comment


      • #4
        Outside of your "Fuck off" classic, these Shavermetrics writeups are your best work in years, Clay. Great stuff. I'll get back on later to lengthily (is that a word) comment on it as well.
        Charlotte Knights - OSFL
        Syracuse Slammers - BLB
        South America - 1984 WBC Runner Up

        Comment


        • #5
          Fear the pen!

          First, I'm mostly surprised as I expected Indy or Syracuse to finish in first in the annual Sabermetrics Pilsner rankings.

          Anyway, excellent points about Denver and it makes me feel as if you've been skipping in my dreams these past few days.

          I stand by my pen. I said before the playoffs that I was going to restructure it. I shipped out former starters (and would be relievers had they been retained): Julian Rodriguez and Don McDonald. Did not resign Tom Rice, Amsalu Mteule and Pancho Sierra. So, I made the change and it reassures my biggest concern the past four playoff seasons. The pen wrecked me against Maine in 1990 and blew up badly against Pawtucket in 1991.

          However, the cap is a concern. Actually, forget the cap. My budget is the concern. I'm squeezing it. And I've talked to a few teams about other potential additions, but I can't make those realistically happen without moving salary-for-salary. That's not very feasible in trying to improve a team while not ripping off another team.

          So, yes, my efforts to improve a major weakness will prevent me from backing up any holes. I was able to do that when I acquired Washington to replace an injured Eddie O'Fallon. Again, I had Samarano when Romo went down and just had to slide Seltzer in as the starting 1B.

          We are holding our breath in Denver.

          But T.J. Cook won't be part of this rotation this year. I have rules with my young pitchers. See Jeremiah Gray.
          Denver Bulls

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Lintyfresh85 View Post
            Why should Wilkerson continue to get better? Because he's about to enter his prime? Or, because he's got better talent around him?
            Theoretically, the move to the DL (despite having to face a DH), should give him the ability to go deeper into games as the substitution patterns are usually less aggressive. He also doesn't have to hit. I'm not sure, as a whole, he has better talent around him. Scott is likely the best single player he's played with, but I'm not sure this team 1-9 is the best.

            Again... it's Shavermetrics.... I have to write something the jives with the numbers... Personally, I think something is wrong with Wilkerson. I trust certain owners in this league more than I trust OSA. I don't see the logic in moving him unless the person who knows him best sees red flags.
            The Great One!

            To many rings to count...

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Clay View Post
              Theoretically, the move to the DL (despite having to face a DH), should give him the ability to go deeper into games as the substitution patterns are usually less aggressive. He also doesn't have to hit. I'm not sure, as a whole, he has better talent around him. Scott is likely the best single player he's played with, but I'm not sure this team 1-9 is the best.

              Again... it's Shavermetrics.... I have to write something the jives with the numbers... Personally, I think something is wrong with Wilkerson. I trust certain owners in this league more than I trust OSA. I don't see the logic in moving him unless the person who knows him best sees red flags.
              Oddly enough, I think Conan is probably the second best hitting pitcher of all time, behind McEvoy. He might even be the best... as his his .211 wOBA is the best I've ever seen by a pitcher over 300 AB's.

              As for the other stuff... no comment.

              I wish Conan the best, unless we have to face off against him, in which case, I hope we beat him.

              Same goes for every former Kodiak.
              Last edited by Lintyfresh85; 01-05-2011, 05:53 PM.
              California Kodiaks - GM - 1982-2013
              Brewmaster's Cups: 1987
              Import League Champions: 1987, 1989
              Porter Division Champions:
              1986, 1987, 1989, 1999
              , 2000
              Import League Wild Card: 2001, 2003, 2004

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Clay View Post
                I don't see the logic in moving him unless the person who knows him best sees red flags.
                Obviously Linty does see red flags after his crafty, snarky, sneaky comments above ("No comment") and in the bold predictions thread ("4.20 ERA"), and your exact thought did cross my mind during the negotiations, but what eased my mind was at least what I think was a memory of Linty arguing last October that Wilkerson had a better year than most, if not all of the Pale Ale guys, etc and that he thought Wilkerson was still a better pitcher. But I may be making that up and I'm too lazy to do a search.

                If Wilkerson blows up, he blows up. I can't think of anything that an owner can see that other owners can't outside of a personal message that says "My arm really hurts, GM Lint. Can you give me a rub down?"
                Charlotte Knights - OSFL
                Syracuse Slammers - BLB
                South America - 1984 WBC Runner Up

                Comment


                • #9
                  Bah, if Wilkerson isn't as good as pre-1992 Wilkerson, it'll be because of the DL offense.

                  I've said it before. I think some guys get scared by ratings hits. A great player that suffers a ratings hit just becomes a very good player.

                  If Wilkerson is a very good player then you have nothing to worry about, Jake.
                  Denver Bulls

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Wilkerson did have a better year than pretty much everyone.

                    I still think he's a Top 3 talent in the game. I just don't see the point of holding onto him when I won't compete for a couple years.

                    Tried to maximize his value while I still control him.

                    If Toapanta picked up his option, there's no way I make the deal to trade Conan. As is, my current pitching staff even with Wilkerson wasn't enough to compete... so I moved him.

                    Simple as that.
                    California Kodiaks - GM - 1982-2013
                    Brewmaster's Cups: 1987
                    Import League Champions: 1987, 1989
                    Porter Division Champions:
                    1986, 1987, 1989, 1999
                    , 2000
                    Import League Wild Card: 2001, 2003, 2004

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Clay View Post
                      What We Like: The Pen is Mightier
                      Charlotte Knights - OSFL
                      Syracuse Slammers - BLB
                      South America - 1984 WBC Runner Up

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Jake View Post
                        I thought of the same exact thing. Haha!
                        Denver Bulls

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Great write-up Clay.

                          As far as the CF Curse, I'm really hoping thats gone in this version. Thats really all I have to hope for. I played him in RF until last year, but I needed the corner outfield spot for lesser talented fielders, so Rex had to move to center. Plus his value is so much higher defensively in center, IMO.

                          I really think the division is up for grabs for all of us, except for Dallas. Sorry Jim. I expect a battle all year, but if I had to pick one team, it'd be Syracuse.

                          Good luck this year, Pilsner beeeyotches!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            First, real quick, Linty, I think I made a bad choice of words earlier when I called your comments "snarky." By definition I think it fits, but I think the connotation might have sounded like I was being a dick or off put about it... so if it came off like that... my bad. I didn't mean it like that at all.

                            ---

                            I can't disagree with where you have me not only in the DL (5) but in the division (3rd). If I did, I would have posted about how I'm the team to beat to Z a lot more over the last few days.

                            However, I have to disagree with why you have me there, the bullpen. Alex Rivas sported a sub 1.00 WHIP as closer last year before moving to the rotation in September and impressed in ST (2.16 ERA, .72 WHIP in 8.3 innings). Young left hander Mac Aaron has been solid in two previous September call ups (1990: 20 IP, 22 K, 2.70 ERA; 1991: 28.3 IP, 32 K, 3.18 ERA) and eased concerns about his (lack of) control this spring with a 22:4 K:BB ratio along with a 1.70 ERA in 19.3 innings. Another lefty, Adam Starks, has been solid over his career and also had an impressive spring (14 IP, 1.07 WHIP, 1.93 ERA). On top of those guys, I think Jaureguy still has something left and will be servicable and I think Vic Morrow is going to be above average as a reliever.

                            But, past that, I can't tell you that I trust vagabonds like Pat Tomlinson, Julian Orozco, or Marv Breese. But, I think we've got four or five guys we can count on and hopefully a guy like Tomlinson or Orozco can step up and repeat their solid 1991 campaigns.

                            That being said, I think we have weaknesses in the OF and with bench depth. Stu McGee looks like a borderline star, but Josey and Brad Carter give me the feeling they may be on the backside of their career. Seikan Suitani is nice, but I think he's better off the bench as a 4th OF. I don't think Raul Villanueva is ready (or that he ever will), and the same goes for Pepe Rodriguez and Jerry Morton. Not that Cannell is truly an OF, but I don't have a good feeling about his pending 1992 performance.

                            On the bench, that would leave us with the aforementioned Suitani, Joe Ovando, probably Quentin Bauregaust, and either Dave Wyatt, Dani Rodriguez, and one of those catchers, who will probably DH. Not very impressive, and that's not mentioning that Curt Bolton is our starting SS (but... I think he's about to have a very solid year. Kid's a ballplayer).

                            So, anyways, I'm with you. We've got to have a couple things go right to win the division.

                            As far as the other guys, with all due respect to Carlos, I think Ryan and those damn Clowns are the favorite. Too much pitching, and a decent lineup to boot. Denver could be solid, but as he mentioned today, I'm not convinced they can hit, especially with Pedro in a nursing home. It's funny - Denver is all pitching, I'm all offense (at least relatively) and Clown has a nice balance.

                            And honestly, I could see one or two of us falling flat on our face and having Jim sneak up with 80-85 wins and take third or even second in the division.

                            Again, great write up, Clay.
                            Charlotte Knights - OSFL
                            Syracuse Slammers - BLB
                            South America - 1984 WBC Runner Up

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              You're misunderstanding the write-up. The "What We Like" and "What We Fear" stuff is just table dressing. The numbers are the numbers. The rest is just conjecture based on the results.
                              The Great One!

                              To many rings to count...

                              Comment

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