Originally posted by Lintyfresh85
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Well, if this is all I need to know to be informed for the awards voting season the case being made isn’t actually that strong (that Wilkerson deserves the Pale Ale over Carlton).
1) VORP - Yes Wilkerson leads the IL in Pitcher VORP over Carlton heading into the final week . . . by 0.3 points. That’s not terribly statistically significant. When you dig a little deeper it becomes even less so when you realize that the lead is mostly based on the fact that Wilkerson has thrown approx 20 more innings than Carlton. Ah, but Carlton is less valuable because he can’t go as deep into games you say? Well, actually the difference is mostly attributed to the three extra games Wilkerson has started (30 - 27). Carlton actually averages almost the same number of innings per start as Wilkerson (Carlton - 6.5 vs Wilkerson - 6.6).
2) Wins - Wins are good, but in this advanced age of statistical analysis it’s a bit underwhelming to hold up 17 wins against 16 wins as one of the cornerstones for supporting Wilkerson. There are a lot of different factors that go into pitcher Win totals that are outside of a pitcher’s control, so an advantage in wins would need to be significant to be relevant IMO (not to mention the 3 extra starts it’s taken for Wilkerson to accumulate that 1 win advantage).
3) K’s - K’s are good. It’s one of the only ways a pitcher can truly control the action on the field. Nothing bad can really happen when the opponent can’t put the ball in play. Wilkerson has an advantage here for sure. He’s a strikeout pitcher and is beloved because of that fact (though his K/9 number is down quite a bit from the last two seasons, 8.56). Carlton isn’t really a slouch in this dept either (7.15 K/9), but Wilkerson does hold an advantage here, but it’s not dominatingly so like it was in the seasons of 11 K/9 that we’ve seen Wilkerson produce.
4) Really, HR/9? This is the 4th cornerstone stat upon which this argument’s foundation is built? This might be the most significant indictment of them all. This seems to be a reach to pull a stat in which Wilkerson has the advantage.
5) Then there’s the sneaky inclusion of the missing “)”, for shame.
I’m still open to further discussion, but at this point you haven’t sold me. Perhaps we could discuss ERA+ since Carlton has such an advantage playing in a pitcher’s park? Maybe we could take a look at ERC? Now that the utility is working these figures should be easy enough to find.
Now for the inclusion of the universal symbol of “this is not mean spirited, just talking baseball”: Sorry (check)Mate!
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