Preview of new utilities

[Carlos]

Also, the draft tracker is pretty sweet as well. Being able to track each draft and look to see where those players are currently located is cool.

Haven't checked that yet. Next!

[Riverman]

How to ruin a pitcher's career.

Jerry Dean - yes, that famous Jerry Dean who retired at the young age of 25 - collected the most wins for a pitcher (51) by the age of 21.

However, he also garnered the most innings pitched by the age of 21 with 705.7 IP.

The closest? Jeff Franklin of Viriginia (then with Baltimore). He amassed 662.7 IP by the age of 21. Coincidence or not, he is now 25 and has already suffered two arm injuries totaling nearly 4 months of missed action. He has also seen his numbers steadily falter.

Virginia beware. Franklin is a free agent at the end of 1988 and buyers will likely have a lot to consider before buying into him.

I heard somewhere that virtually all starting pitchers who became elite before the age of about 24 take serious ratings hits by the age of 27 through version 9 of the game and that that has changed with X. That has been pretty close to true for our league at least I can't think of an exception besides O'Moore and maybe Guardamagni who had one elite year before he was 24.

[Clay]

I heard somewhere that virtually all starting pitchers who became elite before the age of about 24 take serious ratings hits by the age of 27 through version 9 of the game and that that has changed with X. That has been pretty close to true for our league at least I can't think of an exception besides O'Moore and maybe Guardamagni who had one elite year before he was 24.

(Waiting for someone to look that up with the new utility)

[liquidcrash]

Also, the draft tracker is pretty sweet as well. Being able to track each draft and look to see where those players are currently located is cool.

"Cool" in an entirely depressing way, I assume you mean.

[Plastic]

wow...very nice Andrew!

[Ryan]

"Cool" in an entirely depressing way, I assume you mean.

Oh, definitely.

[liquidcrash]

Awesome stuff. It's a shame those 1980 leaderboards are still MIA though.

[Andrew]

wow...very nice Andrew!

Just for the record, I didn't create this. Just installed it.

The good thing is it's written in php/mysql instead of perl (which is what the old utilities were in). This means I should be able to make additions and changes as we see fit.

My first task is going to be figuring out a way to retroactively update the season metrics (namely ERA+ and OPS+).

[Guest]

PECOTA projections would be win. Just saying.

[Carlos]

It could take extensive testing to figure that out, but here are some early findings.

1. First I used Wins as a barometer for success. Easiest way to measure this, I suppose. Other ways would involve much more complication (I toyed with QS, VORP, for example).

2. I took anyone that by the age of 24 had won at least 15 career games, figuring that is a good place to start for a single season of elite success.

The list generated the following:

Rank	Player	Team	Years	W	IP
1	Jerry Dean	Ret	1978-1983	86	1286.3
2	Jeff Franklin*	VIR	1980-1986	68	1058.7
3	Larry LaRochelle*	PAW	1978-1980	63	713.3
4	Enas Sanchez*	DAL	1978-1982	61	983.7
5	Joe Aurillo*	PHI	1981-1984	57	689.7
6	Gil O'Moore*	MAI	1980-1984	55	736.7
7	Joe Ponte*	PAW	1978-1980	54	698.0
8	Donato Guardamagni*	LOS	1978-1981	53	775.7
9	David Tardif*	LAM	1982-1987	50	737.3
10	Dan Jones*	HYU	1978-1980	46	668.0
11	Denver Brode*	DAL	1984-1987	45	551.7
12	Ron MacLagan*	LOS	1978-1981	44	603.0
13	Luis Antonio Ramrez*	CHI	1984-1987	39	619.3
13	Jeremiah Wallace*	HYU	1985-1987	39	520.3
15	Vidal Olbera*	LAM	1978-1981	38	686.3
15	Denny Erwood*	DEN	1982-1985	38	553.3
17	Tommy Lang*	SYR	1980-1982	37	592.3
18	Jack Curry*	HAR	1983-1987	36	578.7
19	Hermosa Cobellen	Ret	1978-1980	35	476.3
20	Orlan Coronda*	BAT	1984-1987	32	646.7
20	Nate Magness*	VIR	1984-1986	32	532.7
22	Akira Abe*	IND	1978-1980	31	578.0
23	Mohamed Makungu*	WIL	1984-1987	30	533.3
24	Bryan Foxworth*	FA	1978-1980	29	501.7
24	Chavez Manga	Ret	1978-1980	29	422.0
24	Manuel Puerias*	MIS	1978-1980	29	417.7
27	Chuck Chance	Ret	1978-1981	28	594.3
27	Delmar Oyos*	VIR	1981-1984	28	555.0
29	John Crittall	Ret	1978-1980	27	392.3
29	Gervasio Dealba*	LOS	1978-1979	27	434.3
29	Dave Sievewright*	PHI	1982-1985	27	472.0
32	Dan Hoskin*	FA	1982-1984	26	409.0
33	Joe Zazueto*	WAS	1986-1987	24	344.0
34	Brad Taylor*	HYU	1980-1982	23	356.0
34	Erasmo Rubancava*	HYU	1982-1984	23	402.7
36	Russ McEvoy*	WAS	1978-1978	22	250.7
36	Sal Soriano*	FA	1982-1983	22	275.0
36	Don Stevens*	SYR	1983-1987	22	528.7
39	Tino Surez*	MAI	1985-1987	21	264.0
39	Shawn Gates*	CAR	1986-1987	21	367.0
39	Jerry Sizemore*	DAV	1986-1987	21	318.0
42	Marco Rubia*	MOR	1978-1980	20	450.3
43	Joe Orozco*	FA	1978-1979	19	372.7
43	Joe Soto	Ret	1978-1981	19	355.3
43	Elijah Combs*	HAR	1985-1987	19	294.3
46	Tessai MacArthur*	SYR	1981-1985	18	400.7
46	Mac Avery*	IND	1985-1986	18	285.7
48	Nathan MacOwl*	PHI	1978-1978	17	222.7
48	Curt Goodwin*	PIT	1983-1987	17	395.3
48	Victoro Daz*	CAL	1985-1987	17	229.7
51	Rico Colet	Ret	1978-1979	16	284.0
51	Alonzo Gugierrez*	WIL	1978-1978	16	228.7
51	Charlie Lanham*	FA	1978-1979	16	246.3
51	Adam McCarthy*	LOS	1978-1979	16	321.3
51	Barto Ramairez*	LAM	1980-1981	16	337.0
51	Chuck Lindsey*	HAR	1986-1987	16	232.7
51	Conan Wilkerson*	CAL	1987-1987	16	190.7
58	Joe Soto*	BAL	1978-1978	15	235.7
58	Juan Urrego*	BAT	1978-1978	15	193.7

A list of 59 names. A good number to start with and compare.

3. I then went through the list of players and looked at their history. Here is the breakdown of the top 10.

1 Jerry Dean
Enjoyed 4 successful All-Star seasons by 23. After 24, won 6 career games. Plagued by back spasms, he retired shortly after.

2 Jeff Franklin*
After his rookie season had 2 All-Star appearances and an ERA under 3.00 for 4 straight years. Missed two months at age of 24, finished with an ERA above 5.00 for first time since rookie season and recently completed a 5-10, 4.20 season at 25 years of age.

3 Larry LaRochelle*
Two All-Star seasons out of the gate with ERAs under 3.00. By the age of 25, saw his ERA creep past 3.00 into 4.00 and above. Breakdown by team: w/Dav 2.33 ERA, w/LAM 3.68 ERA, w/SYR 4.44 ERA, w/PAW 3.88 ERA.

4 Enas Sanchez*
The most confusing this early in the list. By 23, appeared in 2 All-Star Games for Dallas. By 24, his ERA would steadily hover above 4.00 despite having two successful years between those seasons. Most recently had a 3.11 ERA at 28, but followed up with a 12-13, 4.28 season at 29.

5 Joe Aurillo*
Threw over 200 Innings at 22, but at 27, continues to be dominant despite only having made two All-Star teams in 7 seasons.

6 Gil O'Moore*
Similar to Aurillo, continues to be dominant at 27. Threw first 200 Inning season at 26.

7 Joe Ponte*
Before 26, enjoyed three straight all-star seasons with an ERA no higher than 2.17. Ages 27-28 were the highest combined back-to-back years in ERA.

8 Donato Guardamagni*
Threw first 200 inning season at 22 and despite a minor hiccup at 23 (3.81 ERA), has continued to be a dominant pitcher with 7 straight seasons of ERAs under 3.00.

9 David Tardif*
Still early (currently 23), has avoided a 200 inning season with much success in his first two full years. Missed all of his 21st birthday with a strained shoulder and despite still being a good pitcher, has not struck out 100 men since.

10 Dan Jones*
For the most part, consistent throughout his career. Had two dominant seasons at 23 and 24 with ERAs of 3.05 and 3.09 respectively. From 25-27, ERA rose from 3.52 to 3.61 and 3.96. Did return to form at his prime with an ERA of 3.12 at 28 and 29 years of age.

I will go on later if necessary. So far, it seems that 7 of the 10 guys did see their performance suffer by 27. Some guys in the top 10 righted themselves, which is good news.

Hard to really say, though, what that means. If you told me that of 10 pitching prospects, only 3 would be dominant pitchers, I'd probably want to hug you. Of the 10, only one had his career cut short (the most abused, by the way). The other 6 are still at the very least, serviceable pitchers.

My professional opinion (yea, I said that) would be to worry about Jeff Franklin and David Tardiff.

Tardiff has somehow managed to become an extremely good control pitcher, but you can see how losing his velocity has negatively affected him. Before his injury he gave up 15 career homeruns over 3 seasons. He gave up that many in each of the past two seasons.

*Still active.

[Matt]

Friggen awesome!

This game has me totally fascinated with baseball now.

[rubisco43]

So basically, it looks like real life. Young pitchers are impossible to predict. Some shine early and flame out early. some develop late.

[Clay]

Just for the record, I didn't create this. Just installed it.

The good thing is it's written in php/mysql instead of perl (which is what the old utilities were in). This means I should be able to make additions and changes as we see fit.

My first task is going to be figuring out a way to retroactively update the season metrics (namely ERA+ and OPS+).

I would love to see an addition where we could implement those banners that Pride (I believe it was Pride) did.

Also love to implement the logos I made for the awards into the Awards section.

The IL and DL logos.

All cosmetic stuff... but... that's me.

[Guest]

I would love to see an addition where we could implement those banners that Pride (I believe it was Pride) did.

Also love to implement the logos I made for the awards into the Awards section.

The IL and DL logos.

All cosmetic stuff... but... that's me.

Did Pride ever finish those?

[Lintyfresh85]

Oh damn, a California Kodiaks Brewmaster's Championship banner.

NICE!