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Carolina
Prediction 2nd
After a miserable 33-44 start to the season it appeared likely that Carolina was on their way to their first losing campaign in the teams history. They even sold at the trade deadline sending Tim Nathan to Philadelphia for a prospect and a pick but that didn't prevent them from having one of the best 2nd halves in the BLB going 55-29 from July 1 to the end of the season and good enough for a first place tie in the division. Only a heartbreaking Loss to the Bandits in a one-game playoff prevented them from representing the Bock in the playoffs.
Based upon this hot finish, we were tempted to predict that Carolina would win the division next season but a closer look convinced us to guess that they will finish second instead. As with Los Alamos, the Carolina offense features some parts that could be in decline. It appears, however, that Carolina has a bit more financial flexibility and we look for them to use it to shore up some weaknesses during the off season and maintain there string of consecutive winning seasons.
Lead off man Dan Hogan hit .242 with a .318 OBP but somehow managed to score 106 runs. We look for Hogan, at 36 soon after the beginning of next season, to be unable to repeat this feat. 33 year old left fielder Chicho Ochoa has also shown signs of decline in recent seasons posting a total VORP of less than 10 over the last two. Additional offensive weak spots abound in the infield where only SS Jimmy Joy .271/.339/.414 was adequate in 1987. As of this writing, it is unclear who will replace 2B Herb Lefebre, who appears headed for free agency along with utility infielder Rodger Gellagos.
Offensive bright spots in 1987 were 1B Frank Hamlet 22 HRs, 104 RBIs and RF Angelo Opio 25 HRs, 106 RBIs. They are likely to need to shoulder a significant share of the Carolina offense in 1988 though we look for the team to add some offensive pop in the free agent market.
The strength of the Carolina squad has long been their starting pitching and it is likely that that will keep them in contention until late in the season. Veterans Ezequiel Parongao 15-11, 2.87 and Tajo Delclos 15-10, 3.41 are joined by youngsters Shawn Gates 11-9, 2.65 and Hector Castre 9-7, 3.39. Veteran Jack Cashan 5-7, 5.47 has been in decline the last couple of years and appears to be on his way out as a free agent. The favorite to win the 5th spot in the rotation could be newcomer Hector Perez who came over from Philly in the Nathan deal. Perez did not enjoy great success in AAA last season but some scouts believe he is ready for the show.
Though the loss of closer Casimiro Cabezas to free agency at the end of the 1986 season reduced the Carolina pen from elite status, it still performed reasonably well in 1987. New closer Matt Rogers notched 42 saves but his 1-10 record and 3.86 ERA had the fans, who were used to a lot better than that from Cabezas, filling the stadium with boos at times.
Rogers also surrendered lead-off HRs in both the 9th and 10th innings of the deciding playoff game with Los Alamos to both blow the save and take the loss in that crucial contest. Yongster Hector Solis 10-1, 3.03 could replace Rogers as closer if he falters early assuming that decision has not already been made.
Barring serious injury, the Carolina rotation make this team a serious threat next season in the division especially if they are able to shore up their offense through free agency or trade. We feel, however, that they don't quite have enough to emerge the winner.
Prediction 2nd
After a miserable 33-44 start to the season it appeared likely that Carolina was on their way to their first losing campaign in the teams history. They even sold at the trade deadline sending Tim Nathan to Philadelphia for a prospect and a pick but that didn't prevent them from having one of the best 2nd halves in the BLB going 55-29 from July 1 to the end of the season and good enough for a first place tie in the division. Only a heartbreaking Loss to the Bandits in a one-game playoff prevented them from representing the Bock in the playoffs.
Based upon this hot finish, we were tempted to predict that Carolina would win the division next season but a closer look convinced us to guess that they will finish second instead. As with Los Alamos, the Carolina offense features some parts that could be in decline. It appears, however, that Carolina has a bit more financial flexibility and we look for them to use it to shore up some weaknesses during the off season and maintain there string of consecutive winning seasons.
Lead off man Dan Hogan hit .242 with a .318 OBP but somehow managed to score 106 runs. We look for Hogan, at 36 soon after the beginning of next season, to be unable to repeat this feat. 33 year old left fielder Chicho Ochoa has also shown signs of decline in recent seasons posting a total VORP of less than 10 over the last two. Additional offensive weak spots abound in the infield where only SS Jimmy Joy .271/.339/.414 was adequate in 1987. As of this writing, it is unclear who will replace 2B Herb Lefebre, who appears headed for free agency along with utility infielder Rodger Gellagos.
Offensive bright spots in 1987 were 1B Frank Hamlet 22 HRs, 104 RBIs and RF Angelo Opio 25 HRs, 106 RBIs. They are likely to need to shoulder a significant share of the Carolina offense in 1988 though we look for the team to add some offensive pop in the free agent market.
The strength of the Carolina squad has long been their starting pitching and it is likely that that will keep them in contention until late in the season. Veterans Ezequiel Parongao 15-11, 2.87 and Tajo Delclos 15-10, 3.41 are joined by youngsters Shawn Gates 11-9, 2.65 and Hector Castre 9-7, 3.39. Veteran Jack Cashan 5-7, 5.47 has been in decline the last couple of years and appears to be on his way out as a free agent. The favorite to win the 5th spot in the rotation could be newcomer Hector Perez who came over from Philly in the Nathan deal. Perez did not enjoy great success in AAA last season but some scouts believe he is ready for the show.
Though the loss of closer Casimiro Cabezas to free agency at the end of the 1986 season reduced the Carolina pen from elite status, it still performed reasonably well in 1987. New closer Matt Rogers notched 42 saves but his 1-10 record and 3.86 ERA had the fans, who were used to a lot better than that from Cabezas, filling the stadium with boos at times.
Rogers also surrendered lead-off HRs in both the 9th and 10th innings of the deciding playoff game with Los Alamos to both blow the save and take the loss in that crucial contest. Yongster Hector Solis 10-1, 3.03 could replace Rogers as closer if he falters early assuming that decision has not already been made.
Barring serious injury, the Carolina rotation make this team a serious threat next season in the division especially if they are able to shore up their offense through free agency or trade. We feel, however, that they don't quite have enough to emerge the winner.
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