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This is the first in a series of articles that will look at the Bock division by examining each team's prospects for next year. We will maximize the potential of making ourselves look foolish by predicting the order of finish in a division in which, as we see it, any of the four teams could win it if things break right.
Los Alamos
Prediction 4th
An indication of how close this division was in 1987 is that the team that won it, Los Alamos, scored fewer and surrendered more runs than the team that finished last, Davenport. The combination of an aging core of veteran players, tight finances, and the lack of potential impact players in the high minors lead us to the conclusion that Los Alamos reached their high water mark last season in eeking out the division title in a tight battle with Carolina.
We expect this team, which finished 3rd in the IL in runs scored in the IL behind Washington and Davenport to continue to put up runs in 1988. The core of the offense resides in veterans - C Jeremy Windly 34, 3B Johnny Buzzell 32, 1B Gene Murphy 26, RF Oliver Rowell 25 - and youngster Keith McCoy. While we expect continued strong performances from Murphy and Rowell, we have some doubts about the others.
Windley produced perhaps his best offensive year hitting .318 with a .406 OBP and we expect him to decline next season. Buzzell, who was once one of the elite offensive players in the BLB has already shown signs of decline hitting just .258 with 22 HRs last season. If Buzzell can bounce back and come close to the production that he provided in his prime, it could be enough to keep Los Alamos in contention for most of the year. Some scouts believe that McCoy, who hit .291 with 13 HRs in his rookie campaign will not be able to continue to produce at that level.
Also coming off a productive 1987 campaign is veteran SS Miguel Sylvestrie, who hit .294 while providing adequate defense at short. Again some decline in performance may be likely for next season for the 35 year old Sylvestrie. The rest of the OF was manned by a pair of 35 year olds - Bill Fallon .230, 22 HRs and Joe Truex .190, 13 HRs. Both appear to be well past their primes.
Since we don't see any strong rookie candidates that are likely to step in and provide a high level of offensive production, we expect that the Los Alamos offense will decline in 1988.
The rotation was anchored last season by veteran Orrin Brudenell 17-10, 3.63, David Tardiff 13-6, 3.52 and Jason Justice 14-10, 4.12. The odds are probably against these three winning 44 games between them next season. Brudenell, who will be 38 soon after the beginning of the 1988 season, could be a long shot to perform again as he did in 1987. 35-year-old Mike Hinchy 6-6, 3.55 and Barto Ramairez 7-6, 5.30 appear to be the most likely candidates for the 4th and 5th rothation spots.
The bullpen, anchored by closer Wayne Van Slyke, 4-7, 2.42, 47 saves was good last year - 3.33 ERA 5th in the IL - but not outstanding. With several youngsters in the pen with potential for growth this unit could be an area of strength next season but we do not see it as good enough to offset some of the weaknesses as described above.
Even though this division may not feature an outstanding team as it often has in the past, Los Alamos will probably require some big years from an aging crop of veterans to contend seriously for the Bock title. We think this possiblity is decidedly against the odds.
Los Alamos
Prediction 4th
An indication of how close this division was in 1987 is that the team that won it, Los Alamos, scored fewer and surrendered more runs than the team that finished last, Davenport. The combination of an aging core of veteran players, tight finances, and the lack of potential impact players in the high minors lead us to the conclusion that Los Alamos reached their high water mark last season in eeking out the division title in a tight battle with Carolina.
We expect this team, which finished 3rd in the IL in runs scored in the IL behind Washington and Davenport to continue to put up runs in 1988. The core of the offense resides in veterans - C Jeremy Windly 34, 3B Johnny Buzzell 32, 1B Gene Murphy 26, RF Oliver Rowell 25 - and youngster Keith McCoy. While we expect continued strong performances from Murphy and Rowell, we have some doubts about the others.
Windley produced perhaps his best offensive year hitting .318 with a .406 OBP and we expect him to decline next season. Buzzell, who was once one of the elite offensive players in the BLB has already shown signs of decline hitting just .258 with 22 HRs last season. If Buzzell can bounce back and come close to the production that he provided in his prime, it could be enough to keep Los Alamos in contention for most of the year. Some scouts believe that McCoy, who hit .291 with 13 HRs in his rookie campaign will not be able to continue to produce at that level.
Also coming off a productive 1987 campaign is veteran SS Miguel Sylvestrie, who hit .294 while providing adequate defense at short. Again some decline in performance may be likely for next season for the 35 year old Sylvestrie. The rest of the OF was manned by a pair of 35 year olds - Bill Fallon .230, 22 HRs and Joe Truex .190, 13 HRs. Both appear to be well past their primes.
Since we don't see any strong rookie candidates that are likely to step in and provide a high level of offensive production, we expect that the Los Alamos offense will decline in 1988.
The rotation was anchored last season by veteran Orrin Brudenell 17-10, 3.63, David Tardiff 13-6, 3.52 and Jason Justice 14-10, 4.12. The odds are probably against these three winning 44 games between them next season. Brudenell, who will be 38 soon after the beginning of the 1988 season, could be a long shot to perform again as he did in 1987. 35-year-old Mike Hinchy 6-6, 3.55 and Barto Ramairez 7-6, 5.30 appear to be the most likely candidates for the 4th and 5th rothation spots.
The bullpen, anchored by closer Wayne Van Slyke, 4-7, 2.42, 47 saves was good last year - 3.33 ERA 5th in the IL - but not outstanding. With several youngsters in the pen with potential for growth this unit could be an area of strength next season but we do not see it as good enough to offset some of the weaknesses as described above.
Even though this division may not feature an outstanding team as it often has in the past, Los Alamos will probably require some big years from an aging crop of veterans to contend seriously for the Bock title. We think this possiblity is decidedly against the odds.
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