2024 Regular Season SIM 11 Complete - Next SIM Wed 12/6

[Pat]

Geoff 'Smooth' Meckfessel might just be for real.

[Z]

Geoff 'Smooth' Meckfessel might just be for real.

I believe at a minimum he is the .780 OPS (roughly 120 OPS+) hitter he's been on the road. It would be consistent with scouting reports and his amateur and minor league performances. It's possible he's even better than that mark, and closer to his output this year.

The bigger question is what his long-term position is. He's performed miserably at shortstop this year, at least according to the defensive metrics we have available. He's been below-average historically. His profile suggests his optimal position based on his defensive profile and hitting output would be third base. Of course, the same is true for phenom Johnny Swope.

[Pat]

I believe at a minimum he is the .780 OPS (roughly 120 OPS+) hitter he's been on the road. It would be consistent with scouting reports and his amateur and minor league performances. It's possible he's even better than that mark, and closer to his output this year.

The bigger question is what his long-term position is. He's performed miserably at shortstop this year, at least according to the defensive metrics we have available. He's been below-average historically. His profile suggests his optimal position based on his defensive profile and hitting output would be third base. Of course, the same is true for phenom Johnny Swope.

Good analysis.

Maybe he is the Swiss-army knife I was looking to turn Swope into. He can at least play all four infield positions and left field. Sure, he’s subpar at most, but if his bat is for real, that’s pretty good for a 2B-SS.... and I think with time he can be a better OF. Might even get some work in RF.

Plus, a lot of my projected future, isn’t necessarily the best defenders. We play in a hitter friendly IL park (rare) so we might have a priority towards run scoring as opposed to prevention.

Pitching and defense is so dated.

[Z]

Good analysis.

Maybe he is the Swiss-army knife I was looking to turn Swope into. He can at least play all four infield positions and left field. Sure, he’s subpar at most, but if his bat is for real, that’s pretty good for a 2B-SS.... and I think with time he can be a better OF. Might even get some work in RF.

Plus, a lot of my projected future, isn’t necessarily the best defenders. We play in a hitter friendly IL park (rare) so we might have a priority towards run scoring as opposed to prevention.

Pitching and defense is so dated.

Meckfessel's next best spot would clearly be second base. Of course, the same is true for other Seattle infielders, so it is still a complicated situation.

[Pat]

Meckfessel's next best spot would clearly be second base. Of course, the same is true for other Seattle infielders, so it is still a complicated situation.

Yeah. Crowded position for sure.

[Z]

Pitching and defense is so dated.

This subject is of great interest to me. (And I know you were making a joke. I just want to talk about it anyway.)

We all recognize that the personnel in the league changes as we switch OOTP versions. Perhaps the most recent switch was the most dramatic in years.

The big challenge the pitching+defense crowd faces in OOTP 17 relates to sustainability. It seems to me that you used to be able to find defense-first players with steady bats and count on them. To give examples, I'll present two former Guides.

1) Tristan Romarigues: The second-most decorated fielder in BLB history, Romarigues won nine DWI awards (second only to Steve Suarez) and is the only player in league history to win at three different positions (2B, 3B, SS). But he didn't just field. He boasted 5/6/4/2/6 ratings for a decade, had a career .699 OPS, racked up 2,101 hits, and finished with 48.8 WAR. He was a 3.3 WAR player even at age 36.

2) Enrique Zurita: One of a handful of players to win DWIs at two different positions, Zurita played until he was 39 years old and accumulated 1,938 hits and 36.1 WAR while managing a .672 OPS. He was still a good starter as late as age 38.

I'm getting the impression that guys like them don't exist anymore. They tend to flame out around age 28 or 29 or 30 now. It seems like teams are having trouble finding these types of role players who can comfortably be signed to long-term contracts. Just eyeballing it, it looks like there is constant turnover around the league at the defensive skill positions. How many teams have the same starting second baseman or shortstop they had two years ago? Not many. You have the truly upper echelon guys — the premium bats — like Yonke and Jackson. Schneider and Antonietti still have their jobs, though — knock on wood for JJLinn and Sully — that's more by virtue of how young they were when they seized the role.

The amount of parity in the league demonstrates that even the most experienced GMs in the league don't have a great handle on the current version of the game. I know I don't.

It means that if you can't count on your defense-first role players to be good for more than a couple years and it's hard to identify reliable replacements, then it's a difficult strategy to maintain. I've been trying to do it with — obviously — at best mixed results the last few seasons. Jarrod Rowles really epitomizes the challenge. Here was a guy who won a DWI at second base and accumulated 1,081 hits and 26.5 WAR by the time he turned 27. I signed him to a five-year, $59 million extension, and then after a sequence of minor injuries he falls off a cliff as a hitter, ceases to be a reliable starting second baseman at age 28, and I wind up having to attach a pick to get rid of him. He's the kind of player who, in OOTP 16, might have gone up to be good well into his 30s.

Meanwhile, the guys who are really top-level hitters tend to keep it together better. So it makes sense to focus on hitting and be able to count on more consistent production.

[Pat]

I definitely think the version change has made a lot more good hitters/bad defenders and good defenders/bad hitters than it used to. I remember in the past top draft, picks, often throughout the first round, were good two-way players. Now a lot of the great hitters are are subpar defenders, regardless of position. It's been like this since I think my return to the league. You find that great LF but he's rated 456 defensively. And some, don't even have a position at all.

[Z]

I definitely think the version change has made a lot more good hitters/bad defenders and good defenders/bad hitters than it used to. I remember in the past top draft, picks, often throughout the first round, were good two-way players. Now a lot of the great hitters are are subpar defenders, regardless of position. It's been like this since I think my return to the league. You find that great LF but he's rated 456 defensively. And some, don't even have a position at all.

Yes, I agree. And it's not only a question of whether they're good, but also for how long they're good.

Looking at the list of top shortstops — an imperfect metric, of course — here are the starting shortstops who are in their 30s:

1) Yonke (31 years old) — Duh.
2) Jackson (30 years old) — Same thing.
18) Wayman (33 years old) — Barely better than a replacement level player since he turned 30 in 2021. In short, a bad player on a bad team.
21) Moore (34 years old) — Barely better than a replacement level player since he turned 31 in 2021. A bad, part-time player on a mediocre team.

So only four of 26 teams have a starting shortstop in their 30s. Two of them are superstars who just recently turned 30. The other two are really bad players who are not helping teams.

That's pretty telling.

Let's look at second base. Is it any better?

2) Lewis (30 years old) — Another superstar who just turned 30 in February.
3) Vickers (31 years old) — Maybe not a traditional superstar according to scouts, but clearly a bat-first star when it comes to production. Turns 31 next sim.
5) Douglas (33 years old) — Superstar, former batting champion, possible Hall of Famer.
11) Knott (30 years old) — Just turned 30 and is below replacement level in 2024. Has been a disaster defensively throughout his career. Obviously not a glove-first role player.
12) Graves (30 years old) — A big negative defensively throughout his career, even at second base. Clearly not a defense-first role player.
15) Perritt (33 years old) — Here's the glove-first guy who qualifies. Possibly decaying now at age 33.
20) Neal (32 years old) — Another glove-first guy who qualifies. Apparently washed up now at age 32.
UL) Marrero (31 years old) — Always a bat-first player, though one with a solid glove at second. Became a shell of his former self upon turning 30.

So for 26 teams, we have eight second basemen in their 30s, of which three are superstars, another two have basically no gloves, another one was a hitter who can field, and finally two were actual glove-oriented role players (although neither appears to be a productive regular after age 32).

Again, it's pretty revealing. Where are the veterans you can count on? They seem to be long gone from this world.

It makes you worry about giving out any significant extensions to veteran infielders preparing to exit arbitration.

[funclown]

Players for sure are flaming out alot faster kind of matching up with the post steroid era real world. Now I've see pitchers velocity drop before they even turn 30! Of course we still get those guys who are normal and can run well into they're mid 30's, but its nice to see its not set in stone anymore. You really need to watch those extensions now.

[funclown]

Pitching and defense is so dated.

Not true. Ever since Shark discovered this its revolutionized the game. Pawtucket is even trying to mimic it.

[funclown]

Not to stir the hornets nest, but as of this snapshot 15 teams are now projecting a negative balance for the season.

Z is rolling in his grave right now.

[Z]

Not true. Ever since Shark discovered this its revolutionized the game. Pawtucket is even trying to mimic it.

The BLB will never be the same again.

[funclown]

Speaking of BLB evolution. Pawtucket which use to be 7 innings then 3 bullpen guys now has TWO of the top 5 leaders in complete games and 9 total for the season. Wow this flies in the face of everything we use to believe in! There was a time we were consistently a top 5 pitchers staff and almost always at the bottom in complete games every time.

Pawtucket 4.0 is an interesting group.

[Z]

Speaking of BLB evolution. Pawtucket which use to be 7 innings then 3 bullpen guys now has TWO of the top 5 leaders in complete games and 9 total for the season. Wow this flies in the face of everything we use to believe in! There was a time we were consistently a top 5 pitchers staff and almost always at the bottom in complete games every time.

Pawtucket 4.0 is an interesting group.

Zack Reeves is older and fatter than he used to be.

[Spear]

Zack Reeves is older and fatter than he used to be.

5'8 250 lbs! I guess dynamic weight is a thing.