Development Question

[Clay]

Is there anything documented on how moving up a player too soon or not soon enough affects their development?

For example, my #1 overall pick is already showing as "Ready for Double A". Now I know you can't use that report as a true gauge, but I don't want to hurt the guy one way or the other.

I guess the question is this.... I'm not looking for advice... just a simple... is there something written somewhere that I can read?

[Jistic]

Is there anything documented on how moving up a player too soon or not soon enough affects their development?

For example, my #1 overall pick is already showing as "Ready for Double A". Now I know you can't use that report as a true gauge, but I don't want to hurt the guy one way or the other.

I guess the question is this.... I'm not looking for advice... just a simple... is there something written somewhere that I can read?

Do you have the game guide? I think it came out with OOTP 2006. I think this is covered in that. Moving guys up and down though is an art, not a science.

I have a guy batting .417 in 117 at bats in AAA. But his ratings say that he should suck right now. Should he be moved up? I am a big believer in hidden ratings that are revealed sometimes by on the field performance in the minors. So this guys true potential may be much higher, much like Tilbrook was for me.

I think it's safe to put your boy in AA. And if he can't hack it, move him down. I don't think you damage a guy unless you leave him at the wrong level for an extended period of time.

It's funny, you see some guys struggle at a lower level, then promote them, and they excel. But that's the rub. If you don't challenge them, they sometimes regress. Those scout ratings don't seem to tell everything when it comes to some minor leaguers.

Like I said, it's an art.

[dkgojackets]

In your case, if you start him at AA, then he'll bust because you progressed him too soon. If you start him in A, then he'll bust because you kept at too low a level.

[Clay]

Thanks, Jistic. Yeah, I certainly have not figured it out, but I really haven't had too much talent. I know I was guilty in my first season of giving up on talent too quickly... and now I may be the opposite... holding on too long.

In your case, if you start him at AA, then he'll bust because you progressed him too soon. If you start him in A, then he'll bust because you kept at too low a level.

Sadly... you are probably right.

[Ryan]

I know I had to move a couple of guys up after our rookie class imported. Its tough, but its the only way to see how a guy will truly react. Like others have stated, its just hard to move guys up based on performance when the ratings/scouts say otherwise.

[Clay]

I think one of the biggest tricks for me is learning to ignore age and let the numbers tell the story.

[Carlos]

In your case, if you start him at AA, then he'll bust because you progressed him too soon. If you start him in A, then he'll bust because you kept at too low a level.

Are you going to finish drinking your half-empty glass of water. :)

[Carlos]

I think one of the biggest tricks for me is learning to ignore age and let the numbers tell the story.

I agree that it's a science.

Usually, I let the numbers tell me. I have several guys in my system that "Are Not Ready" for their specific league and yet they perform up there. Then you have guys that fluster in A or AA and when they get promoted they excel - much like Jistic said.

I think you have to get to know your players. You find out how a particular person progresses. I think this is why I tend to do better with the players I drafted rather than those already on my minor league team when becoming the new GM.

I get to see the guys progress from Rookie/A Ball and I can figure out how they work.

I've had players that play one year in a level and suck. Next year, they blow up. This particular player (in another league I'm in) did this throughout his minor league career. He sucked in his first year of Rookie Ball and then blew up in his second so I promoted him. Sucked at A, blew up the next year. Now, he's in AAA (five years in the minors I think) and after a suck-worthy AAA debut the prior season, I'm expecting him to blow up yet again.

Then you have the guys that are just never happy. They are in AA at 19 and they are unhappy. You promote them to AAA and they explode. Or you get unlucky and they see their talents dwindle.

But, I'm also not the person you probably want to talk to. I'm very aggressive with my minor leaguers. I havne't seen the sure-stars fade out in my system so I'll continue to promote guys early. My belief, as crazy as it is, is that the guy needs to show he's ready as soon as possible. If he can't handle it in the minors then he can't handle it in the majors and I don't want him.

[Guest]

I think one of the biggest tricks for me is learning to ignore age and let the numbers tell the story.

That's something that I've had to get over also. I had Leal last year hitting .410 at AA but was kind of iffy on promoting him since he was only 21 at the time, but I did anyway. He struggled that year, but has been on fire so far this year (.309, 10 HR, 37 RBI).

Then Nazaire this year who was demolishing AA. He hit .326 there as an 18 year old and was hitting .413 this year at 19. It's extremely rare to see someone that young at AAA and I didn't want to screw his career up, but he had nothing left to prove if he was hitting over .400. I promote him to AAA in May and he starts tearing it up, is now hitting .328 and has jumped to the #50 prospect in the league. Seems as though it's working out.

[Andrew]

My only advice is to ignore age for the most part. It's far more important that a prospect be playing against peers who have similar ratings than similar ages. Having somebody play above or below their ratings is the quickest way to turn them into a bust. My general rule of thumb is:
2's and 3's = A
3's and 4's = AA
4's and 5's = AAA
5's and 4's = BLB

I think it's also important to consider sample size. I wouldn't move a player up based on performance alone unless they were doing it for at least half a season, maybe even a whole season.