2009 Draft Discussion

[funclown]

Round 4 at the end. Z up

[Spear]

Hank's up. Has he been around much for the draft? or should we put him on Auto?

Pat has a pair of picks next too.

[Matt]

A long post but talks about the different draft "issues" in OOTP '14. The main points just seem to be that OOTP '14 player creation has been nerfed. Instead of seeing the studs still there in the 2nd and 3rd round, and watching them die off slowly it's based more off of OSA, stats, and intangibles (work ethic, intelligence, etc..). Also from what I've seen pitching will look far more dominant than hitting, which is also supported below.

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...aft-years.html


This is a post from Beorn (I believe Spot knows him well) who is a good guy.

I set up a test league to check this out.

I created a fictional league using default settings but scouting off, and ran a draft with the AI controlling all teams. Here's what I get:
(All numbers are numbers from the player editor, so they are out of 240.)

Pick 1 round 1: SP with 158-168-138 potential
Pick 4 round 1 (top hitter taken): 107-177-105
Pick 5 round 1: SP with 113-168-143
Pick 6 round 1: C with 98-152-105
midway pick (8) round 1: CF with 93-104-109, but 161 range
midway pick (9) round 1: SP 116-126-118
Pick 1 round 2: LF 99-143-70 potential
Pick 1 round 3: SP 108-109-99 potential
Pick 1 round 4: SP 118-3-153 potential
Pick 1 round 5: CF 79-35-63 potential, but 155 range, 160 speed

The most remarkable thing, to my eyes, is the lack of batting potential other than power. The top hitting prospect barely tops the "100 minimum" barrier in overall contact and batting eye, and the other two hitters taken in the top half of round 1 actually have contact potential less than 100.

However, pitching talent does not look so terribly out of whack with what we have seen in the past.

So the next obvious question is whether this low level of hitting talent produces the kinds of stats seen the past season or two in major league baseball -- which is clearly Markus's goal.

So I ran the test league. Turned off evolution of league. Turned off foreign ammies and foreign FAs. Simmed 25 years so that all the players in the bigs are generated by draft.

Results:
League batting average is around .255, league ERA 3.90. Six starting pitchers have season ERA under 3. Two hitters over .340. Four hitters over 40 HR.

Of the top 10 hitters (according to the game engine), 8 were high number one draft picks, with a round nine and a round three as well. Top 10 pitchers almost exactly the same distribution.

It's a small sample, but it fits with what I have been seeing. These draft classes work as designed, although that design is to produce the more pitching dominated game of the past couple years. And it works without any great intervention of obscure draft picks skyrocketing to the top, and without the intervention of foreign ammies.

(from another post)

4) A significant portion of the shock over OOTP14 draft classes involves the top hitting prospects -- the first round types. Objectively, they are not as good as in the past. This is fine, if you are starting a league and want your results to echo MLB results of the past couple years. I've heard no complaints about unrealistic results... However, it is not so clearly a positive thing for long standing online leagues to suddenly run into draft classes so much skewed away from batting eye and contact. It appears that this happens, unless you take action and adjust player creation modifiers. It's not that OOTP needs to change, but people running long time leagues and moving them to OOTP should be aware of the change and make their decisions accordingly.

[Delandis]

So Marcus moved the goalposts towards realism and everyone freaks the hell out. Looks like the draft is less like a basketball draft and more like the crapshoot that baseball is.

[Pat]

So Marcus moved the goalposts towards realism and everyone freaks the hell out. Looks like the draft is less like a basketball draft and more like the crapshoot that baseball is.

This should probably lead to a major devaluing of draft picks....

With a move to realism, I say we disable draft pick trading.

[Delandis]

Sounds good to me.

[Carlos]

So Marcus moved the goalposts towards realism and everyone freaks the hell out. Looks like the draft is less like a basketball draft and more like the crapshoot that baseball is.

Yep and like I said before, if everyone is like that then the talent will look the same years from now.

One day those 4 contact guys will be the bulk of good hitters and we will just adjust. Baseball changes.

sent from my mobile device

[funclown]

Yep and like I said before, if everyone is like that then the talent will look the same years from now.

One day those 4 contact guys will be the bulk of good hitters and we will just adjust. Baseball changes.

sent from my mobile device

Yep as long as the average runs per game don't drop from the 4 range to 2-3 runs per game. That would be sort of silly.

[funclown]

This should probably lead to a major devaluing of draft picks....

With a move to realism, I say we disable draft pick trading.

Why drop it? People still have the right to trade picks as they see fit. It's really up to an owners perception. If anything strength in numbers might be the best play.

[Pat]

Why drop it? People still have the right to trade picks as they see fit. It's really up to an owners perception. If anything strength in numbers might be the best play.

#1 it's unrealistic. The MLB does not allow it.

#2 it's something different. So many trades in the BLB are veteran for pick. Imagine what trades would be like if we didn't have draft picks to trade.

[funclown]

#2 it's something different. So many trades in the BLB are veteran for pick. Imagine what trades would be like if we didn't have draft picks to trade.

Probably a lot fewer would be my guess.

[Pat]

Yeah, maybe. Less trading wouldn't be a bad thing.

[Delandis]

So in the MLB you are only allowed to trade players after they are selected?

[Pat]

So in the MLB you are only allowed to trade players after they are selected?

Yes.

[Carlos]

I think if trading picks was removed (and I doubt it ever wins a vote), it would force more teams to relinquish more top prospects for a game changer player.

It would make drafting well even more important so you can have enough talent to move for established talent.

sent from my mobile device