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In the span of one week the Washington Bats lost Pat Ladd, Tyler McLouth and Antonio Cardenas to season-ending injuries. Ladd currently leads the BLB in AVG, OBP, OPS and wOBA. McLouth is behind only Ladd in AVG and 2nd in the BLB in Hits. Cardenas leads the BLB in RBI and all shortstops in range and double players. The loss of one of these players would be catastrophic to any contender. Losing all three, at the same time, is a complete nightmare.
At 76-60, the Bats are one game back of Baltimore for the IL Wild Card and the team is currently slotted to pick 14th in the draft. For most teams, tanking would ensue. With a few Funclown-like tweaks this team could nosedive in the standings, give reps to unproven players and maybe sneak into the top 10 of the draft. However, with an owner already unhappy with the season thus far, an expectation to win another Brewmaster’s the defending IL Champions will do their best to keep hope alive.
The silver lining to the injuries are that none are playoff-ending. If the Bats sneak into the post-season, Ladd and Cardenas should be available for Game One of a first round match-up, likely against the Batavia Muckdogs. If the winning continues, McLouth would return by Game One of the ILCS against Windy City or Death Valley.
The injuries open starting spots at SS, 1B and 3B, and leaves holes in the lineup at #2, #3 and #5. In their place…
At SS – Tommy Tipsword and Armando Felipe
The 25-year-old actually made his BLB debut this week with Cardenas being the first to be injured. Drafted out of High School in the 3rd round of 2000, Tipsword is the complete opposite type of hitter that Cardenas is. A switch-hitter who in Triple-A this year hit .308 with 32 stolen bases, Tipsword doesn’t have a good eye or any power but should be solid enough to hold down the spot the last few weeks. He will not fill Cardenas’ role as the RBI machine at #5 but could provide some nice speed from the bottom of the order. Felipe will make his BLB debut this week starting vs. LHSP. Felipe was also selected out of High School in the 3rd round of 2000, just six picks behind Tipsoword. A solid defender who has hit .259 with a .760 OPS in two Triple-A seasons, the 26-year-old Felipe will also hit near the bottom of the lineup.
At 3B – Alex Otero and Victor Sandoval
Here, the Bats will platoon a lefty and righty. This time last year, Otero had just finished up his season as the CLOSER in Double-A Myrtle Beach for the Seattle Reign organization. Switched to a hitter after the Rule V draft this year, Otero, like Tipsword before him, isn’t half the hitter that McLouth is but does provide a major speed upgrade. In 170 BLB ABs this year, Otero has 10 stolen bases and was used often as a pinch-runner throughout the season. His defensive replacement and right-handed counterpart is Sandoval. In 271 BLB career at bats, Sandoval has hit just .627 OPS but this year has surprised in a small sample size with a .764 OPS in just 69 ABs.
At 1B – Gabrielle Clareno and Dave D’Orio
An Outfielder by trade, Clareno like Ladd, is forced to play out of position to get his bat in the lineup. A switch-hitter who has the eye/discipline and avoid K ability of a Hall of Famer, doesn’t do much else to scare teams with his bat. So far in 239 ABs this year he is hitting .268 with a .776 OPS, which includes a .382 OBP and 2:1 BB:K ratio. D’Orio is the opposite of Clareno. He has no eye or avoid K ability but has good contact and tremendous power. Originally the starter at catcher, D’Orio will move to 1B vs. LHP while Clareno will fill Ladd’s spot at LF.
Other roster changes for the stretch run:
Bullpen – Alex Cruz, Antonio Mesa, Zach Koenemann and Manny Salas
Nothing too important…two failed 1st round picks and two closer prospects will be given BLB reps as a deep long relief group to keep the important arms fresh. If these guys are used often however, it’s unlikely the Bats are contending for the Wild Card.
#5 Starting Pitcher – Jimmy Whitworth
The backend of the Bats rotation has been changed throughout the entire season. While the top three has been very solid, #4 rookie Zachary Lewis has gotten hot so the only remaining question is who would get the #5 role down the stretch. Tom Downs was given a start from his middle relief role and struggled. Terry Bornemann has gone 3-14 this year and won’t be given a chance to redeem himself this year. Whitworth has spent the past two months in a mop-up role after faltering as a starter for Washington. The 28-year-old was a waiver pickup from Baltimore and I think he could be motivated to knock his former employer out of the playoffs after receiving his pink slip from the Bulldogs in June.
Lineup Changes Throughout-
With all the replacements being far inferior hitters to the trio of Ladd-McLouth-Cardenas, other players in the lineup will have to step up in new roles. The new #3 hitter in both lineups will be Eron “Pistol” Deleon. A contract dump from Los Angeles, the 36-year-old had a resurgence in Washington hitting .297 with an .845 OPS in 44 games for Washington. He’s not the Middle of the Lineup type hitter he used to be but with limited options, he will have to do so for Washington. Filling in at the #2 spot will be rookie Danny Romero. The 22-year-old has hit .276 with a .748 OPS in 81 BLB games and should fit nicely in the #2 spot with his high contact lefty bat.
Other Depth Guys – Antonio Pequeno, Ruben Sanchez, Travis McDowell, Dioguo Canudo Gil Rader, TJ Richardson
This group of characters will fill roles as pinch runners, pinch hitters and defensive replacements. Should provide the depth needed to make strategic substitutions in close games.
Outlook-
The BLB Utility has Washington as a 30.6% chance to make the playoffs….but that doesn’t factor in the injuries. I also down think there is a realistic chance to win the division at five games back from red-hot Death alley, which is 8.8% of that playoff chance prediction. The Bats have a remaining opponent schedule of .512%, 4th toughest in the IL. Baltimore has a low .494%, 2nd easiest in the IL. A lot will be riding on the three games against one another in Washington on September 24-26. Baltimore is also 5-1 in the six games thus far against Washington.
The IL's #1 scoring team lost it's three most important hitters and are replacing them with no-names. September is usually a good month in Washington because of the minor league depth and the teams willingness to call up the entire 40-man roster. There will be a few strategy, lineup and roster tweaks to give this team a different look. It’s very, very, very unlikely this team can make it…but I’ll be trying my best.
At 76-60, the Bats are one game back of Baltimore for the IL Wild Card and the team is currently slotted to pick 14th in the draft. For most teams, tanking would ensue. With a few Funclown-like tweaks this team could nosedive in the standings, give reps to unproven players and maybe sneak into the top 10 of the draft. However, with an owner already unhappy with the season thus far, an expectation to win another Brewmaster’s the defending IL Champions will do their best to keep hope alive.
The silver lining to the injuries are that none are playoff-ending. If the Bats sneak into the post-season, Ladd and Cardenas should be available for Game One of a first round match-up, likely against the Batavia Muckdogs. If the winning continues, McLouth would return by Game One of the ILCS against Windy City or Death Valley.
The injuries open starting spots at SS, 1B and 3B, and leaves holes in the lineup at #2, #3 and #5. In their place…
At SS – Tommy Tipsword and Armando Felipe
The 25-year-old actually made his BLB debut this week with Cardenas being the first to be injured. Drafted out of High School in the 3rd round of 2000, Tipsword is the complete opposite type of hitter that Cardenas is. A switch-hitter who in Triple-A this year hit .308 with 32 stolen bases, Tipsword doesn’t have a good eye or any power but should be solid enough to hold down the spot the last few weeks. He will not fill Cardenas’ role as the RBI machine at #5 but could provide some nice speed from the bottom of the order. Felipe will make his BLB debut this week starting vs. LHSP. Felipe was also selected out of High School in the 3rd round of 2000, just six picks behind Tipsoword. A solid defender who has hit .259 with a .760 OPS in two Triple-A seasons, the 26-year-old Felipe will also hit near the bottom of the lineup.
At 3B – Alex Otero and Victor Sandoval
Here, the Bats will platoon a lefty and righty. This time last year, Otero had just finished up his season as the CLOSER in Double-A Myrtle Beach for the Seattle Reign organization. Switched to a hitter after the Rule V draft this year, Otero, like Tipsword before him, isn’t half the hitter that McLouth is but does provide a major speed upgrade. In 170 BLB ABs this year, Otero has 10 stolen bases and was used often as a pinch-runner throughout the season. His defensive replacement and right-handed counterpart is Sandoval. In 271 BLB career at bats, Sandoval has hit just .627 OPS but this year has surprised in a small sample size with a .764 OPS in just 69 ABs.
At 1B – Gabrielle Clareno and Dave D’Orio
An Outfielder by trade, Clareno like Ladd, is forced to play out of position to get his bat in the lineup. A switch-hitter who has the eye/discipline and avoid K ability of a Hall of Famer, doesn’t do much else to scare teams with his bat. So far in 239 ABs this year he is hitting .268 with a .776 OPS, which includes a .382 OBP and 2:1 BB:K ratio. D’Orio is the opposite of Clareno. He has no eye or avoid K ability but has good contact and tremendous power. Originally the starter at catcher, D’Orio will move to 1B vs. LHP while Clareno will fill Ladd’s spot at LF.
Other roster changes for the stretch run:
Bullpen – Alex Cruz, Antonio Mesa, Zach Koenemann and Manny Salas
Nothing too important…two failed 1st round picks and two closer prospects will be given BLB reps as a deep long relief group to keep the important arms fresh. If these guys are used often however, it’s unlikely the Bats are contending for the Wild Card.
#5 Starting Pitcher – Jimmy Whitworth
The backend of the Bats rotation has been changed throughout the entire season. While the top three has been very solid, #4 rookie Zachary Lewis has gotten hot so the only remaining question is who would get the #5 role down the stretch. Tom Downs was given a start from his middle relief role and struggled. Terry Bornemann has gone 3-14 this year and won’t be given a chance to redeem himself this year. Whitworth has spent the past two months in a mop-up role after faltering as a starter for Washington. The 28-year-old was a waiver pickup from Baltimore and I think he could be motivated to knock his former employer out of the playoffs after receiving his pink slip from the Bulldogs in June.
Lineup Changes Throughout-
With all the replacements being far inferior hitters to the trio of Ladd-McLouth-Cardenas, other players in the lineup will have to step up in new roles. The new #3 hitter in both lineups will be Eron “Pistol” Deleon. A contract dump from Los Angeles, the 36-year-old had a resurgence in Washington hitting .297 with an .845 OPS in 44 games for Washington. He’s not the Middle of the Lineup type hitter he used to be but with limited options, he will have to do so for Washington. Filling in at the #2 spot will be rookie Danny Romero. The 22-year-old has hit .276 with a .748 OPS in 81 BLB games and should fit nicely in the #2 spot with his high contact lefty bat.
Other Depth Guys – Antonio Pequeno, Ruben Sanchez, Travis McDowell, Dioguo Canudo Gil Rader, TJ Richardson
This group of characters will fill roles as pinch runners, pinch hitters and defensive replacements. Should provide the depth needed to make strategic substitutions in close games.
Outlook-
The BLB Utility has Washington as a 30.6% chance to make the playoffs….but that doesn’t factor in the injuries. I also down think there is a realistic chance to win the division at five games back from red-hot Death alley, which is 8.8% of that playoff chance prediction. The Bats have a remaining opponent schedule of .512%, 4th toughest in the IL. Baltimore has a low .494%, 2nd easiest in the IL. A lot will be riding on the three games against one another in Washington on September 24-26. Baltimore is also 5-1 in the six games thus far against Washington.
The IL's #1 scoring team lost it's three most important hitters and are replacing them with no-names. September is usually a good month in Washington because of the minor league depth and the teams willingness to call up the entire 40-man roster. There will be a few strategy, lineup and roster tweaks to give this team a different look. It’s very, very, very unlikely this team can make it…but I’ll be trying my best.
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