BLB Stretch Run 2006

[Pat]

Trying to stir up some discussions on the forum...

Playoff Race:

1. Who do you have winning the Pilsner, Syracuse or Dallas?

2. Who do you have winning the DL Wildcard, Maine, Los Angeles, Dallas/Syracuse or a long shot?

3. Who do you have winning the Bock, Windy City or Davenport?

4. Who do you have winning the Porter, Batavia or Baltimore?

5. Who do you have winning the IL Wildcard, Windy City, Davenport, Death Valley or a long shot?

Contenders:

6a. Any position battles still going on to determine playoff rosters/lineups/rotations?

Pretenders:

6b. Anything to watch for?

[Pat]

1. Dallas. They are currently just three games back but still play Syracuse eight more times this season. If you take away the month of April, Dallas (7-12), Syracuse (13-7), the Snappers have been the better team. I think this will remain very close as the season progresses and the final four games of the season are against one another. Those four games are in Dallas.

2. I wouldn't have predicted this a few sims back but I'm taking Maine. Not sure how Z has kept this team in the hunt with all the injuries but the past two months the Guides are 35-15. However, the Maine's September schedule is no cake walk. Washington, Pittsburgh (2x), Syracuse, Cleveland, Dallas, New York and Los Angeles are on the schedule. I assume the Pilsner teams will keep pace and make it come down to the final week but I think Maine will (continue) to find a way to get it done.

3. Windy City is #1 in ERA and SP. Davenport is #2 in ERA and SP. The big difference lies with the Playboys superior bullpen and lineup. I think Davenport keeps it interesting with six more games against Windy City but the Playboys experience should come in handy down the stretch.

4. The defending champion Muckdogs are not playing the type of baseball expected of them this season but still maintain a three game lead. The Bulldogs won 93 games last year and fell just short of the playoffs...I see a similar result. These teams still have two series left against one another but the Muckdogs despite their struggles are the superior club.

5. Despite making most of the team available on the waiver deadline, the Death Valley Scorpions are my pick to win the Wildcard. Despite their struggles they still lead the IL in runs scored. During the stretch run arms are known to get tired and I think the Scorpions offense will make teams pay. Currently at 4.5 games back they do have a bit of ground to make up but of their 38 remaining games, only NINE are against teams above .500.

6a. Despite having the best record in the IL, I still have on going position battles and questions for the playoffs. First, who is going to play second base? This season I have played numerous players at the spot and this week I will be calling up 21-year-old top prospect Danny Romero for a chance to win the job. Veterans Orlando Saucedo and Cy Gray have provided elite defense at the position but the switch-hitters can't hit above a .600 OPS. It's probably Romero's job to lose vs. RHSP but after mashing a .923 OPS in April in Triple-A, his OPS by month has declined: .736, .741, .542, .811. Maybe he got bored with Triple-A? Maybe he is still developing. Not sure.

The other question lies in the rotation. My top two starting pitchers, CJ Skinner and Troy Hanback are considered locks. Behind them, are question marks. Youngster Terry Bornemann has been a surprise so far this year going 10-6 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.12 WHIP but with zero playoff experience and a very low BABIP, he is a question mark. Veteran Travis DuFour normally a post-season lock has been struggling. The 33-year-old is on pace for his first losing season since his rookie year and ever since pitching a 1-hit shutout @ Windy City on July 25th, he has gone 0-4, with a 6.94 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. Other options include Lorenzo Campos, who is having his worst year as a pro, and SP/MR flex guys such as Tom Downs, Zachary Koenemann and Manny Salas. If Bornemann continues his pace he will pitch and it would be hard for me to not throw DuFour after his years of service, but it's something to monitor.

[Z]

2. I wouldn't have predicted this a few sims back but I'm taking Maine. Not sure how Z has kept this team in the hunt with all the injuries but the past two months the Guides are 35-15. However, the Maine's September schedule is no cake walk. Washington, Pittsburgh (2x), Syracuse, Cleveland, Dallas, New York and Los Angeles are on the schedule. I assume the Pilsner teams will keep pace and make it come down to the final week but I think Maine will (continue) to find a way to get it done.

I appreciate it. Trying to do what I can. I'm letting Danny Lebron play out his full rehab stint as a DH at AAA. Selectively resting my other everyday players. We lost Raulo for the year, but we have the best rotation in the league statistically and should be okay in the postseason there, though we will miss him.

[Lintyfresh85]

Question... what's the rules on pre - arbitration long term signings?

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[Carlos]

Question... what's the rules on pre - arbitration long term signings?

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Must play through one arbitration year before signing an extension.


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[umd]

We have not played well pyth wise or in 1 run games. Bad dice rolls? Who knows... but I don't expect that to change in a month. We will just look to stay young and regroup for next season. This was a DAV/WAS year. Since getting swept out of the playoffs, this team has never really recovered and has more under performers than over performers.

[Delandis]

I think your assessment is spot on, Pat. I'd describe this season as rather Washington-esque since I realy dont think we are good but we are still winning. Couple that with an unexpected "bad" season from the champs and we look much better than we are. I'm happy with our season regardless of outcome. After trading Hamilton and Kiefer, I really didn't expect a winning season. But I am seeing some nice glimpses of the future, plus I'm steadily lowering the value of all of my traded picks for next season which always lessens the sting of having no draft picks.

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[Pat]

plus I'm steadily lowering the value of all of my traded picks for next season which always lessens the sting of having no draft picks.

It's definitely motivation to perform.