Tweet
#1 Pittsburgh Millers (94-69) #3 Indianapolis Clowns (88-75)
Season Series: PIT 5 - IND 2
Overview:
The Millers got the #1 seed in the DL by winning game 163 against the Guides. The Clowns got the #3 seed by beating the Slammers also in game 163.
Pittsburgh enters the playoffs for the first time since 1996. This is also the most wins for the Millers since that same season. Indy makes the playoffs for the 4th year in a row but with their lowest win total since 2001.
This is a battle between two great GMs...and two of the shittiest looking logos in the BLB.
Injuries
Pittsburgh: 1B David Gamboa, SP Ian Fain
Those are two really big names. From 2000-2004 Gamboa averaged 160 games, .300 average, .865 OPS, 100+ BB, 30+ doubles, 20 HR and 80 RBI...this year he only played in eight games. Fain averaged a 4+ WAR the past three seasons and through 20 games this year, had a 3.3 WAR. Tore his labrum in August.
Indy: SP Pat Bryant, SP Rogelio Garcia
Bryant is one of the very best pitchers in the game. A three-time Pale Ale winner, he didn't even pitch this season. He hurt that elbow yet again, this time in Spring Training. Garcia is a solid back-end starter, but it isn't a huge loss because he probably wouldn't make the playoff rotation even if healthy.
Advantage: DrawGamboa is a great hitter. Fain is a great young pitcher. "Wildfire" in my opinion, is as good as both of them. Pittsburgh is deep and has been able to find replacements at 1B/DH, as well as filling the void at SP, as best they can. The Clowns have a solid four-man rotation but they could really use their ace.
Starting Rotation
Pittsburgh:
Millers rank 5th in the BLB in rotation but are 8th in the DL in starters ERA. Do remember the park they play in and their poor defense, both which kill their pitchers numbers. Even with Fain injured, the Millers boast two dominant lefties in Jamie Thomas and Shane Carroll. Filling out the rotation is veteran Duane Porter, fresh off a huge Lonnie Coleman win, and two youngsters in Sal Bermudez and Heriberto Rocha. The decision between those two young righties remains to be seen.
This group is very young, besides the long-time veteran Porter. Started his career in Pittsburgh and Syracuse, then spent the last decade in Los Alamos. In that time, he only made the playoffs once and didn't make it out of the first round.
Indy:
The positional strength report has this group 14th but better than Pittsburgh with 5th in the DL in ERA. The rotation is lead by a rookie in B.J. Carpenter who finished the year first amongst the starters in ERA. He is arm can hit 99 on the gun and his groundball percentage is 70%. Not bad for a guy who started the year out in the pen.
Advantage: PittsburghWith "Wildfire" out, Pittsburgh arguably has the three best starting pitchers in this series. Their stats aren't great because of their park and defense but in terms of talent, they are head and shoulders above Indy.
Bullpen
Pittsburgh:
The Millers rank 2nd in DL bullpen ERA. They have six relievers who average 10K/9 and a sub 4.00 ERA. Lead by J.R. Goeman and T.J. Mileski, who split time at closer. Behind them are two lefties and two righties who could probably make anyone's team.
Indy:
The Clowns rank 9th in DL bullpen ERA. This group has been scattered all year. Some of the former starters are now in the pen and vise versa. The rotation has also been on strict pitch counts, relying on that makeshift bullpen.
Advantage: PittsburghThis is a blowout match-up. While Indy has some decent players in the pen, especially with playoff rest, but they are out gunned. The Indy group is also all righty. The Millers have lefties, righties and arguably three players who could be closers in this league.
Starting Line-ups
Pittsburgh:
The Millers are 1st in DL runs, average, on base, hits and stolen bases. They are lead by a group of OFs who they don't have enough spots for. Schubert, Race, Wallis, Gentry, Leamy and Richardson get regular ABs in the outfield as well as 1B and DH. This group battled injuries all year, with only Travis Wallis and Ian Morrow playing over 130 games this season. Besides Gamboa, this group is finally healthy.
Indy:
They don't get the type of stadium boost that the Millers do but this group can still score. While just 5th in DL runs scored, they are better than the Millers in homeruns (3rd) and are right behind the Millers in steals (2nd). OF Jimmy Jones is the best hitter in the series. 33 doubles, 13 triples, 37 homeruns, 117 RBI, 87 BB and 27 SB. Wow.
Advantage: IndyThis will be a surprise to some but despite scoring less runs, the Clowns are the superior group. The Millers boast nine players who have an OPS of .804-1.024 when playing at home. When on the road they don't have one player with an OPS greater than .793. That's pretty incredible. The Millers also rank dead last in the DL in defensive efficiency. The Clowns are 3rd in the DL in defense. They have six really good hitters in their lineup and the others are great defenders.
Series Prediction:
Pittsburgh 4 - Indy 2The Millers are the top seed and the Clowns have the lowest win total in the playoffs but I think this should be a competitive series. The Clowns have the bats to keep up with the Millers and more playoff experience but where I see the downfall is in the amount of homeruns the starters give up. Mal Jackson gave up 32, Yoshi Naka gave up 25 and Chuck Dixon gave up 16 in 127 IP. With this Miller lineup (besides Gamboa) finally healthy they will take advantage of the Clown pitching. The Clowns will need a super series from rookie B.J. Carpenter and slugged Jimmy Jones to have a realistic chance.
Advantage: Draw
Comment