2005 IL Playoff Preview

[umd]

#1 Death Valley (113-49) vs #3 Batavia (102-60)
Season Series: DVS 8 - BAT 1.

Overview:

By virtue of Washington's come from behind week to eliminate Baltimore and lock-up the IL Wildcard, the Bats head to Windy City. With two Stout teams in the playoffs, IL leader Death Valley draws #3 seed Batavia.

Batavia enters the playoffs for the first time since 1997. Their 102 wins the most in franchise history. The Muckdogs capture their 1st Porter division title since 1996, and finish the 2005 season with a strong 20-10 run through September and October.

Death Valley makes their first playoff appearance since relocating to Las Vegas, finishing the season with a league high 113 wins and the Stout title. The Scorpions finished the season 21-9 over the last month.

Injuries

Batavia: C Bill Hardwick, 3B Roberto Crespin, OF Shane Miller

Hardwick, Batavia's allstar catcher, will miss significant time since injuring his wrist in late September. Prior to the injury, Hardwick was a presence batting 3rd in the Muckdog line-up. His .257/.373/.515 slash and his 25 homers and 73 RBIs is a significant loss. Rookie SS/3B Crespin, injured in September as well, was a solid contributer before he got hurt. He batted .288 with 7 homers and 47 RBIs and provided solid defense at 3B all season.

Death Valley: CF Colin Cash, OF TJ DiMaggio

Expected to return for the start of the playoffs this week, after dealing with shoulder tendinitis in September, Cash has suffered a setback that will limit him during the first week of the Wildcard series. Cash made the IL Allstar team hitting .309 with 15 homeruns, 60 RBIs and 16 SBs. DiMaggio has been out since June with a torn labrum.

Advantage: Death Valley

Hardwick won't be able to make his return until the Brewmaster's, while Crespin could be back for the ILCS. Cash could see time late in the series, depending on how things play out.

Starting Rotation

Batavia:

The Muckdogs rotation ranked 4th in the IL in ERA (3.57) and 3rd or 4th in all major pitching categories this season. Batavia will most likely start a playoff rotation of Danny Gonzalez (17-5 2.59), Diego Martinez (14-10 3.02), Ron Burton (15-8 3.40) and Dewitt Pierce (8-14 4.45) against DVS.

Youngsters Gonzalez, Martinez, and Burton finally took the next step this season and are a big reason that Batavia is returning to the playoffs. The trio of highly rated young arms struggled at times last season, but were much more consistent thoughout 2005 in leading the team to 102 wins. Dewitt Pierce, a savvy waiver wire acquisition mid season, provides the playoff rotation with a steady veteran presence. If the coaching staff decides to mix it up, Broderick Farquharson could see a start in the series.

Death Valley:

The Scorpions rotation ranked 3rd in the IL in ERA (3.18) and 2nd or 3rd in most major pitching categories this season. The Scorpions will most likely start a playoff rotation of Brendan Lindsey (17-7 3.19), Alex Torres (12-3 2.84), Migdonio Manhos (10-4 2.13), and Tony Wences (11-9 3.33). Travis Hoffman and Tommy Poe could also be available for DVS.

Alex Torres (signed in the offseason to a huge FA contract) combines with Migdonio Manhos (acquired mid season from Maine) to provide playoff experience for the Scorpions. This will be the first playoff appearances for Lindsey and Wences.

Advantage: Death Valley

The IL featured some impressive rotations across the top 4 teams, and these two teams are no exception. Batavia's Top 3 are young, live arms and they are backed up by an exceptional bullpen. Death Valley is a mix of young and old, with Manhos and Torres in their 30s and Lindsey and Wences with no playoff experience. There's something to be said for experienced playoff arms and Manhos and Torres offer an advantage over Dewitt Pierce for Batavia.

Bullpen

Batavia:

The Muckdog bullpen was the best in the IL this season. Anchored by superstar closer Danny Magana, Batavia has features not a single plitcher in their bullpen with an ERA over 2.65.

Death Valley:

The Scorpions finished 3rd in bullpen ERA this season in the IL. DVS boasts two of the better young closers in baseball in Edgar Fajardo and RJ Manning.

Advantage: Batavia

Both bullpens are deep, but Batavia's is deeper and more dangerous across the board. In a series where both teams hit as well lefty and righty, and dominated by excellent starting pitching, it could come down to the bullpen to win (or lose) this series and Batavia's group has had the stronger season.

Starting Line-ups

Batavia:

The Muckdogs made an effort to add some pop to their line-up this offseason and it has worked as expected. Matt traded for Big Jon Guttierez from Windy City and Jon Montalbo from Pawtucket in the offseason. The two have combined to add a new power dimension to the offense, combining for 62 homeruns and 185 RBIs. Add in young star Travis Wyatt (.262 17 HR 79 RBIs) and Batavia sports a nice 3-4-5 even without C Bill Hardwick's bat. Lost in the power is the fact Batavia can bat for average and set the table in Javvy Sanchez, Taylor Turney and Yoshi Agano.

Death Valley:

Like the Muckdogs, the Scorpions made an effort to upgrade their offense coming into the 2005 season. Featuring only 2 returning starters to the everyday line-up in Danny Salcedo (.293 31 homers 108 RBIs) and injured Colin Cash (.309 19 homers 60 RBIs), DVS was active in acquiring batters that could hit for power in Ian Reynolds, Agustin Perales and Pat Marlin and could get on base in Tex Watts, Colin Reed, and Dave Santoyo.

Advantage: Death Valley

In a series where the Muckdogs have both Bill Hardwick and Roberto Crespin in the line-up, the advantage would swing back to Batavia. However, even without those 2 it is still razor thin which offense is better on paper. The possible return of Colin Cash for DVS in games 5, 6, and 7 could be the difference maker in what will be a highly competitive series.

Series Prediction:

Death Valley 4 - Batavia 3

[umd]

Washington at Windy City...below.

[Pat]

#4 Washington Bats (94-68) #2 Windy City Playboys (108-54)
Season Series: WAS 2 - WC 5

Overview:

By virtue of Washington's come from behind week to eliminate Baltimore and lock-up the IL Wildcard, the Bats head to Windy City. With two Stout teams in the playoffs, IL leader Death Valley draws #3 seed Batavia.

Windy City enters the playoffs for the third year in a row after dominating the Bock once again. This is arguably the best team the Playboys have ever had, at least since 1986, the year they won their only Brewmaster's.

Washington makes the playoffs for the sixth year in a row, fresh off of three straight Brewmaster's. This is however the Bats lowest win total since 1999.

Injuries

Windy City: None

Windy City has had this division wrapped up for months. The result? A healthy team. They haven't had an injury longer than a week since May.

Washington: SP Nick Cortes, SP Travis DuFour (returns Game 1), OF B.J. Jobe

Washington has already stayed pretty healthy due to regular rest of starters and using six-man rotation for most of the year. Cortes was having a great year before going down with a season ending shoulder injury in August. Not a huge loss however as Cortes was unlikely to see rotation time in the playoffs. DuFour returns from a strained hamstring after four weeks to rest. The big injury however is to leadoff hitter, CF BJ Jobe. On the final game of the season Jobe got hurt on the base paths. The injury diagnosis is still pending. With two Lonnie Coleman games coming up, hopefully the Bats medical staff have enough time to fix him up. Or at the least, let the team know when he can be back.

Advantage: Windy City

Have to give the advantage to Windy City who hasn't had a BLB player on the DL since Liam Ingle's broken hand in May. DuFour is back, but is he rusty? Cortes still could have been useful on the team after such a great year (3.17, 1.12). But the big potential loss is Jobe. He finally developed into the player the franchise expected the past two years and losing his switch-hitting bat, versatile defense and running ability (3rd in IL in SB) could be a huge blow.

Starting Rotation

Windy City:

The Playboys had the #1 positional strength rotation and #1 SP ERA. This is the best rotation in baseball, one of the best the game has ever seen. The only tough question is who starts when and if the Playboys are better suited using a four-man or five-man rotation.

Lead by Jamie Herberholz, Travis Neal and Edgar Mejia, the top trio are the top three pitchers in WAR in the IL. Rounding out the rotation is Javier Gonzalez and Tom Oshman. The backend duo (ha) combined to go 34-14 for 420+ innings and ~3.00 ERA. You read those numbers right.

Washington:

The positional strength report has this group 5th however they were 2nd in the IL (to Windy City) in SP ERA. This group has a lot of playoff experience and have been pitching together for years.

DuFour returns from injury. Troy Hanback closed out the season 3-0, 3 GS, 3-0, 22 IP, 1 ER in three must win games. CJ Skinner fresh off signing a $71M extension in August, went 15-6, 2.72 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Behind them is Lorenzo Campos, the rotations only lefty, who went 6-2, 2.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP the seasons final two months. And last is the resurgent Tom Downs. Despite being nearly waived a few months ago, Downs has pitched seven consecutive quality starts in a row since returning to the rotation on August 25th. Do they Bats go four? Five? Like Windy City, with this depth, that is a realistic question.

Advantage: Windy City

The Bats rotation could be the 2nd best in the entire league. But that's still second best. The Playboys had four players top 220 strikeouts this year, the highest getting 263 and the lowest getting 156. The Bats leader in strikeouts this year was Hanback with ....132.

Bullpen

Windy City:

The Playboys rank 5th in the IL in BP ERA and 12th in RP and 1st in CL positional ranks. These two teams actually made a draft day trade that sent veteran lefty JJ Black from DC to WC to help the sometimes rocky Playboys relievers. The key for Windy City is just getting the ball from starter to closer, Reynaldo "Stinger" Jimenez. At just 22 years old, he is a team leader and arguably the best closer in baseball. With the playoff rest days in between, they might not need the other relievers at all. Behind him are two youngsters who could close for other teams in Nesty Jimenez and Steven Kreighbaum. They also have another former Bat in Andy Beniquez.

Washington:

The Bats are ranked 7th at RP and 6th at CL in positional strength and finished 2nd in the BLB in bullpen ERA. This group is lead by veteran lefty Clarence "Doodle" Ortiz, who returns to closer for the post-season after two panicky-move starts. No member of the bullpen has an ERA over 2.90 and the group combined for 48 saves.

Advantage: Windy City

Both bullpens are very, very solid. However, the the Playboys have by far the best of the group in Jimenez and the other four available options are about as good as anyone Washington has. Ortiz has the experience but he has shown lots of decline during the season.

Starting Line-ups

Windy City:

The Playboys have the #1 rated batting stats for every category besides walks (5th) and strikeouts (3rd). They have arguably the best hitter in the game in JJ Caplan and arguably the best hitting infielder in Liam Ingle. This team is so deep that their #1 pinch-hitting option is switch-hitting future Hall of Famer Chuck Durham. Even deeper than that their #4 OF is rookie Jerry Sanchez who hit at a .900 OPS. He will get rookie of the year votes. They play defense too, 3rd in BABIP and 3rd in defensive efficiency.

Washington:

The Bats were a middle of the road offense at most categories besides lacking in home runs (7th) and excelling at walks (4th), steals (2nd) and strikeouts (1st). They also boast a good defense, 1st in BABIP and 2nd in defensive efficiency. This team has the ability to score runs in a variety of ways but there are holes near the bottom of the lineups. If Jobe misses the series the Bats do have depth to fill the void but it will hurt.

Advantage: Windy City

Series Prediction:

Washington 4 - Windy City 3

What?! I don't know, just call it a hunch. The Playboys have been on cruise control all year and haven't had a meaningful game since probably the All-Star break. The Bats have been playing playoff baseball the past few weeks just to get a chance to get in. There is also a ton of motivation for players that won't be back with the organization next year. Mal "The Crow" Brady, Clarence "Doodle" Ortiz, Heishu Shiraishi and Jerry Davis are all not expected to return. Brady and Ortiz are two of the biggest names in Bats history. I also like the idea of Jerry Davis and Cy Gray facing off against their former team as the middle infield duo. These teams haven't played one another since July. I also like the match-up, as much as one who is overmatched in every way, possible could. Windy City is a power pitching, strikeout team. Washington however struck out the least of any team in the BLB. The Playboys lead the IL in homeruns hit...and the Bats lead the BLB in least HRs allowed.

Bats in Seven. DuFour steals game one. Playboys win in game two. Bats get two of three at home in DC. Playboys take game six. Bats win game seven on the road to shock the world...


...if not, Windy City in four.

[Jistic]

Well written. I like Diesel sticking his neck out a little. And for good reason. I think we've beaten Washington in the playoffs once. I won't be stunned if it happens again.

[Pat]

Well written. I like Diesel sticking his neck out a little. And for good reason. I think we've beaten Washington in the playoffs once. I won't be stunned if it happens again.

I figure there is usually one big upset...Maybe the extra days off hurts your team...This team has Championship experience...

I'm hopeful. Even if I get swept, I'm glad I snuck into to get some playoff revenue. This team is going to look a lot different next year.

[Matt]

Very nice write-ups. I hope we can win 3...and even 4. But we just don't match up well against the powerful Scorps.