2005 Team Preview Capsules

[umd]

Figured now that we might actually be competitive again, I'll start something new. I'll do a preview of my team and one other team. I did a lot of BLBing this offseason. I didn't run "test sims" and spend hours in "spreadsheets" analyzing the "single player tendencies", but I did learn a few things and get re-acquainted with almost every team and it's system.

Thought we might cover as many teams as possible if someone did their team and then one other...

Death Valley (IL-Stout)



What's New? New faces all over the clubhouse.

It begins with star SP Alex Torres. Torres (36) comes over from Baltimore on a $20+ million a season deal to anchor an up and coming rotation. Add in untested, but highly touted FA CL Omar Maldanado from Venezuela, and the pitching staff has added two impact arms.

Calling Card? The Long Ball.

The changes didn't end with arms, as Vegas was busy sending out picks and young assets for tested BLB veterans in C Augustin Perales (CAR), IF David Santoyo (CAR), OF Pat Marlin (CAR), and OF Ian Reynolds (MAI). The four new additions add nearly 100 HRs and 300 RBIs to a line-up that features star C (now 1B) Danny Salcedo and on the rise CF Colin Cash.

Kryptonite? Inexperienced Starting Pitching.

Torres was brought in to lead a talented, but inexperienced starting rotation. Venezuelan star Tony Wences had a solid rookie season and finished in the top 5 in New Brew voting, but still lacks experience and may need more time to reach his projected potential as a clear cut #2 starter. Similar to Wences, homegrown Brendan Lindsey showed some growing pains in his rookie season. The Scorpions are asking a lot for Lindsey to progress into a mid-rotation presence in his second season. After those three, who's going to emerge to fill out a thin rotation? There are options in the system, but are they ready yet?

In the System? Coma's Coming.

The cure for the Scorpions starting pitching anxiety could be young stud Robby 'Coma' English, drafted at 1.1 just last year. Coma raced through A and AA posting dominant numbers that will have him in Reno to start the season, but probably in Vegas by July. He has all the looks of a big time starting pitcher and a franchise cornerstone.

Position Battle to Watch? A Crowded Outfield.

There's going to be a rumble in spring traing for Vegas, where all the participants are walking loudly and carrying big sticks. The only position that's locked in is CF, where Colin Cash looks to blossom after an impressive rookie year.

The corner OF spots will see some serious jostling, with someone getting squeezed out. Incoming DL HR leader Ian Reynolds will battle newcomer Pat Marlin, HOF'er Rex Knight, recently resigned utility OF Chet Walton, and youngster TJ DiMaggio for one of 2 available spots.

Signs point to Reynolds earning one spot, and then an all out Survivor style war for the second spot with DiMaggio the only OF guaranteed a roster spot. Look for one of Knight, Marlin or Walton to be in another city by Spring Training... or sooner.

Magic 8-Ball Answers: Will the Scorpions make the Playoffs?
Outlook is hazy. Prediction: 85-77. 2nd in the Stout, miss WC by 3 games.

Despite a remarkable turnaround just 2 full seasons removed from Claygate, the Scorpions +16 wins can't get them a wildcard birth. With Batavia cashing in it's tremendous potential, California maintaining it's core and Philly not slipping enough, the wildcard belongs to the Porter for another year. Starting pitching turns into an issue for DV, as the young arms are at least another year away from making an impact.

Next Preview? The Maine Guides...

[umd]

Maine (DL-Ale)



What's New? Hey, Big Spender!

A 5 year, $105 million contract has landed former Tob (then Duke) CF Jerry 'Fury' Brown in Maine. Fury's 26 homers and 87 RBIs will join a powerful OF that already features youngsters Steve Suaraz and Jerrod Dapson and will try to offset the losses of 1B Babilo and OF Reynolds.

After signing Brown, the Guides cast a large New England net and landed former Pale Ale Starter Fernando Hernandez from LAM for youngsters SP Dusty Paulsen, OF Ian Reynolds, 1B Pat Silvia and a 2nd round pick. The move surprised many, especially on the heels of the Brown signing. Maine management has always been known for it's shorter (team friendly) contracts and tight financial leash, even for key players. Hernandez salary balloons in 2007 to $27 million.

Either way, Brown and Fernandez provide two potentially impact players in Maine, no matter the cost.

Calling Card? Pitching to the Pen.

Many of Maine's best teams have been built on a strong foundation of starting pitching and a stingy, balanced bullpen. This season should be no different. The Guides will insert Fernandez into the #1 slot and round out a formidable front four that includes 1993 Pale Ale winner Raulo Guttierez, Migdonio Manhos, and Tom Hau. Add in phenom Ignacio 'Twinkle Toes' Alvarez, and Maine should have no trouble getting to a solid bullpen that features eight relievers with sub 4.00 ERAs.

Kryptonite? The Ale Arms Race II.

In the 1990's Pittsburgh, Hartford, Maine and Pawtucket were constantly one-upping each other through competitive FA signings and big, bold trades. This season has a similar feel to it. Pawtucket is coming off it's second straight Brewmaster's appearance and looks as strong as ever. Pittsburgh won 93 games and boasts one of the top systems in the BLB having had a top 10 system the last 8 seasons with more prospects appearing in the BLB each day. Can Maine keep up if Pitt or Pawtucket make a bold move? Will the Guides have the financial flexibility to keep pace with player salaries already at $105 million for this season?

In the System? Two Words: Twinkle Toes.

The steal of the 2003 BLB draft at 1.17, Alvarez has everyone in New England embracing his ridiculous, but loveable nickname. Somewhat of an obscure prospect who looked like a strong bullpen arm entering the draft, Alvarez continued to develop his pitches and has emerged as a projected frontline starter. You can probably expect some rookie ups and downs this season, but Maine has the luxury of a strong starting rotation to enable them to bring along Alvarez without immediately expecting him to dominate DL line-ups.

Position Battle to Watch? IF Musical Chairs.

The only position that looks to be a lock is slotting slugger Nari Garin at 1B. After that, the next best guess would be to say Tristan Romariques will find himself starting consistently at 2B, SS, or 3B depending on what everyone else does. Look for SS Dave Sherrod, 3B Curt Hardin, 2B Danny Lebron, 3B Alex De Jesus and SS Shawn Nolan to street fight it out for the other 2 spots. All the above mentioned have tremendous versatility, so it's possible Maine keeps 5 of them and rotates their positions and starts accordingly.


Magic 8-Ball Answers: Can Maine Vault over Pawtucket and Pittsburgh?

Don't Count on It. Prediction: 87-75. 3rd in the Ale, miss WC by 6 games.

The Guides have averaged about 87 wins the last 3 seasons after winning the Division in 2000 and 2001. The addition of Brown and Fernandez will give the Guides a boost, and the continued development of Alvarez, Hau, Suarez and Dapson will always keep them in this race. Especially with management's creativity and ability to make counter moves at the deadline. However, there's really no reason to see any slippage in two time defending DL champions Pawtucket and the continued emergence of Pittsburgh's young prospects. And that's just the Ale. The DL has a large number of Wildcard contenders in Indy/Syracuse and NYK/LAD.

Next Preview?

[Pat]

Washington (IL-Stout)


What's New? New faces in the dugout.

78-year-old manager Bill Sandidge went out on top. Promoted Youp Koen, the bench coach the past three seasons, to manager. Signed Brad Flowers, the bench coach of Philly the past eight years, to fill the same role. Also signed John Royce to be the Bats hitting coach after the surprise retirement of Clarence Naugle. Do we really know what type of impact coaches have in OOTP? I guess this season will be a good test. This is a very smart group of coaches but clearly a downgrade from last years.

Calling Card? Scoring Runs

For the first time in a long time, the Bats lead the entire IL in runs scored. The Bats are normally a team that goes with defense over offense, but not in 2004. Some players were out of position this year in order to maximize runs. Expect more of the same in 2005. The depth at the BLB level combined with the AAAA and young prospects ready in Triple-A, this might be the deepest my lineup has ever been.

Kryptonite? Lack of funds

Sorry, it's really the best I could come up with. We are already over budget and normally going into the season we have some wiggle room to make moves. This team is built to win but there won't be many additions. This is a veteran team that will get hurt...if a few big names go down, while I have depth, I don't have the money to take on any salary at the deadline like normal.

In the System? Unheralded Prospects

Zachary Koenemann, Terry Bornemann, Travis McDowell, Dave Haney, Ed Longoria, Victor Sandoval. Never heard of them? They are the under the radar prospects waiting for their opportunity for the Bats. The future starts now.

Position Battle to Watch? A Very Crowded Outfield

Manny Reyes, Pat Ladd, Heishu Shiraishi, B.J. Jobe and Willie Garcia. That's five All-Star caliber talents for three spots. They will get regular days off, one will start every game at 1B and there will likely inevitably be an injury.

Magic 8-Ball Answers: Will the Bats win a fourth in a row?
Outlook is clear Prediction: 98-64. 1st in the Stout, lose in ILCS.

I didn't expect to win it this year. This team is getting older. A lot of long term contracts are coming to a close. The window isn't as open as it once was. I think this year and next year are our last years that we have a chance and then we will have to rebuild while Batavia and Windy City battle for the IL crown.

[Jake]

These are awesome man, good stuff.

[Z]

Great job with the preview, umd.

I wanted to comment on this block:

Position Battle to Watch? IF Musical Chairs.

The only position that looks to be a lock is slotting slugger Nari Garin at 1B. After that, the next best guess would be to say Tristan Romariques will find himself starting consistently at 2B, SS, or 3B depending on what everyone else does. Look for SS Dave Sherrod, 3B Curt Hardin, 2B Danny Lebron, 3B Alex De Jesus and SS Shawn Nolan to street fight it out for the other 2 spots. All the above mentioned have tremendous versatility, so it's possible Maine keeps 5 of them and rotates their positions and starts accordingly.

Nolan and Romarigues are locked in the starting lineup at short and third, respectively.

We might go with a Lebron/de Jesus platoon at second.

Sherrod and Hardin are not in the starting conversation at the moment.

Also, with regard to trading Reynolds -- and Pat has commented about my team on this topic before -- one area my team has struggled with the last few years is getting on base.

Reynolds logged 641 AB with a .319 OBP last year. That's pretty rough for a slugger. Babilo wasn't much better at .323.

Garin has a .353 career OBP, and Brown's is .382 (and .353 even in a down year last year).

They will help.

[umd]

New York (DL - Lager)



What's New? Hold the Line.

As has been the case for the last decade, not much. Not known for making drastic changes year to year, the Lager winning Knights will keep the cast together for another run at a division title. Dating back to their time in Mississippi, the Knights have always been one of those under the radar teams that goes about it's business and sneaks up on teams in the playoffs. That was the case last season, as the Knights played their way into the DLCS. They make 3 small splashes in FA, adding veteran MRs Adrian Diaz and Yoshiro Yashida on discounts. They also pick up utility IF Todd Burley off the Death Valley scrap heap. They only lost roleplayers from last season to FA, with the most notable being Chuck Durham who migrated to the IL and juggernaut Windy City.



Calling Card? Quality Starters You've Probably Never Heard of.

Alex Mejia? The 8th pick overall in 1996 with a career 3.32 ERA. Joey Simpson? The 13th overall pick in 1998 who's an intimidating 6'4 240 lefty with a 2.53 ERA. Raul Reyes? A 35 year old former closer who converts to starter at 33 and posts back to back 3.04 and 2.76 ERA seasons and a combined 24 wins. Danny Ventura? Former Supplemental pick with 3.46 ERA in 4 seasons in Gotham. Toss in youngster Tommy Poe and the seemingly immortal Norm Sutton and the blueprint for success remains the same as always: quality, under the radar pitchers winning games.

Kryptonite? Father Time?

Norm Sutton (13 years) and Gene Dixon (13 years) have been here since the Knights were the Storm. They're not getting any younger both reaching age 36 last season. Their supporting cast isn't getting any younger as the core of New York's team is 30 or older, including arms like Reyes, Cox, Diaz, Martinez, Yoshida and bats like Laurent and Clemens. There's some important younger players sprinkled across the roster - especially in CL Daniel Alvarez, Poe, Simpson, Asitimbay, Mast and young C Abraham Santana, but will age be a factor? There's a lot of reliance on players exiting their prime years to maintain high production levels.

In the System? Abraham Cometh?

The time is now for C Abraham Santana. The 6th overall pick in 1998 draft, Santana is the bridge between now and the future. He's a slick fielding C, with the potential to hit both for power and average. After reaching as high as #4 on the Top Prospects list, the question now is whether he'll continue to take steps forward after struggling a bit as a rookie.

Position Battle to Watch? Reaching for the Pen.

It can sometimes be difficult to find a battle worth watching on a team that doesn't make many changes coming off a trip to the DLCS. However, it looks like there's some instability in the bullpen, where newcomers Diaz and Yoshida will try to supplement holdovers like Cox, Eisenhauer, Martinez and Taylor in front of dominant closer Daniel Alvarez. How the bullpen sorts itself out will play an important role in holding off the Dinos and bringing New York another division title.

Magic 8-Ball Answers: Was a trip to the DLCS a fluke?

Most Likely, Yes. Prediction: 84-78. 1st in the Lager - lose in WC round.

The Knights overachieved a bit last season. Boosted by a Lonnie Coleman victory, the underdog Knights stampeded to the DLCS. Relying on older players, and not making too many changes could lead some to believe the Knights are poised for a bit of a slide. The Knights should retain their division crown with rival LA not making significant upgrades this season, and Toronto and New Orleans rebuilding. Can they do damage in the playoffs again? Anything is possible for this under appreciated franchise.

[funclown]

Love it UMD. Maybe I'll take a break from the IL preview or should I do one again???

[Spear]

The Knights should retain their division crown with rival LA not making significant upgrades this season, and Toronto and New Orleans rebuilding.

Rebuilding, eh?

Had it not been for our August/September collapse that division would have been ours!

[funclown]

Rebuilding, eh?

Had it not been for our August/September collapse that division would have been ours!

Agreed. Spear never rebuilds.

[umd]

Rebuilding, eh?

Had it not been for our August/September collapse that division would have been ours!

I guess we shall see.

[Spectre]

Absolutely agree my team was a fluke last year- I have no idea how we made it to the playoffs last year especially given how poor we were to start the year. My team is in transition- lots of old players but a solid group of young arms. Simpson, Mast, Santana, Parson, Astimbay form a nice corp.

Love the read

[umd]

I always love your players Spec.

Looking like a half day today and an off day tomorrow because of snow so I will do some more of these.

[umd]

Looks like there's too many to do. If anyone wants to jump in here with one team or a quick look at divisions feel free.

*Division ~Wildcard

Ale:
Team (GB)
1. Pawtucket* (-)
2. Pittsburgh (3)
3. Maine (8)
4. Hartford (45)

Lager:
Team (GB)
1. New York* (-)
2. Toronto (3)
3. LA (4)
4. New Orleans (12)

Pilsner:
Team (GB)
1. Indianapolis* (-) LC winner
2. Syracuse~ (-)
3. Denver (18)
4. Dallas (40)

Stout:
Team (GB)
1. Washington* (-)
2. Death Valley (12)
3. Morgantown (18)
4. Wilmington (25)

Bock:
Team (GB)
1. Windy City* (-)
2. Los Alamos (25)
3. Davenport (30)
4. Carolina (52)

Porter:
Team (GB)
1. Batavia* (-)
2. California~ (4) LC Winner
3. Philly (4)
4. Baltimore (15)

Power Rankings:

BOLD = Playoff Team

1. Windy City
2. Washington
3. Indianapolis
4. Pawtucket
5. Syracuse
6. Pittsburgh
7. Batavia
8. California
9. Maine
10. New York
11. Philadelphia
12. Death Valley
13. Morgantown
14. Baltimore
15. LA Dinos
16. Toronto
17. Wilmington
18. New Orleans
19. Los Alamos
20. Davenport
21. Denver
22. Hartford
23. Dallas
24. Carolina

[funclown]

I'll start working on the IL preview later today.

[Matt]

I can only hope we finish first. Our pitching is just too young. I should have left Burton down and Bertin will stay in AAA no matter what.

They have nice potential but just aren't showing it yet. I still think we're a year away at best from competing for the Porter.