Your 2000 Denver Bulls vs DelPrez's Minor Leaguers

[Jake]

As we all know, during the 2000 season, Delandis has begun featuring 2-3 late round minor leaguers who have overacheived in their minor league careers and are beginning to make a name for themselves. July's honor went to Philadelphia farmhand Leo Fernandez, a SP currently in AAA Trenton. The announcement prompted Philadelphia owner Brad Zabel to take a pot shot at Carlos Hernandez and his Denver Bulls as Zabel used the stage to boast that Fernandez would "probably be the Ace of the rotation" in Denver. Which got me thinking, how would Delandis' guys actually fare against Denver?

Work's been crazy and I'm officially on vacation for a couple days, so my ADHD is in full effect and I've already spent entirely too much time on this, but the plan is to create a 16 man, WBC style roster to go up against the Denver Bulls and their theoretical 16 man roster in a 7 game series. To do this, I'm creating an OOTP 12 league with two teams, 16 man rosters, and editing the players as close as possible to their true BLB player. With injuries off and a lot of time between games to allow for the shortened bench.

I first considered creating a "historical database file" to import these players, but that gets really messy or really annoying so I'm just going to use the player editor - which will allow you to enter stats to create ratings - and enter Major League Equivalency stats and then tweak ratings based off of their BLB OSA/Scout ratings. No, it's not perfect. But it's close enough for something no one will read. I'll be basing everything for the series off of OSA ratings - but for the sake of argument and discussion, involve my scout's look and stats for subjective debate below.

I'm lazy, so I didn't go as far as to really, do a BLB specific MLE. http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...latingMLEs.htm is a great site if you wanted to read more about MLE. It mentions 18% loss as a marker for AAA to ML, although Clay Davenport has mentioned .860 as an index to translate AAA performance to ML. To save time I'm just going to use the IL as a base league for AAA equivalencies with the MLE calculator found at http://mlsplits.drivelinebaseball.com/mlsplits/mlecalc. For the AA batters, I'm using the Southern League as the AA numbers - of the three AA leagues, it's smack dab in the middle. Seems fair.

For pitchers, I'll use the aforementioned 18% performance loss from AAA>ML, and since I can't find another number anywhere else, 18% from AA>AAA. I'm not going to get into park factors or anything like that, but I am going to adjust extremely low or high BABIP's either up to .290 or down to .300 before I make the league adjustments. It's a very subjective formula... I'm not a huge believer in BABIP, but there is something there.

I included FIP in the minor league numbers because some of the ERA's are questionably low. I ended up just using the same 1.18 index to get to a MLE FIP - which ended up being higher than the actual FIP if I calculated a 18% performance loss into home runs, BBs, strikeouts, etc. For the sake of player editing, I'll multiply each individual stat.

Once I get those numbers, I'll eventually put them into the player editor to create ratings - then adjust to the closest possible number to get the "correct rating." For example, if Miller - currently a 5 for contact - came out as a 7, I would adjust him to a high 5. If he came out as a 3 - I'd adjust him to a low 5.

It's a flawed system. I get it. And obviously OOTP is not real life and there's probably a harsher transition from level to level... but I don't care.

But, in the meantime and without further ado, the team:

Including Delandis' monthly honorable mentions, the full Minor Leaguers to Watch roster would include:

SP Leo Fernandez (PHI)
SP Artie Waters (AA-CAL)
SP Zach Amaral (VIR)
MR Tommy Robbins (PHI)
SP Nick Cortes (WAS)
SP Jermaine Taylor (AA-DEN)
SP Alex Aguirre (AAA-DAV)

2B Gong-sun Tsai (SYR)
1B Dave Miller (WAS)
CF Jerry Del Valle (IND)
1B Loui-Gabriel Trahan (AA-BAT)
SS Goro Morinaga (AA-PAW)
3B Danny Flores (LOS)
1B Joey Bailey (AA-MOR)
RF Alex Cabrera (AA-VIR)
C-OPEN

Next up... The Tale of the Tape: Starting Rotation.

[Jake]

The Tale of the Tape: DelPrez vs Denver Starting Rotations

vs
#1: NICK CORTES (AAA-WAS) VS TROY CLARK

NICK CORTES MLE: 3.22 ERA, 2.13 K:BB, 4.29 FIP, 1.42 WHIP
TROY CLARK 2000: 4.70 ERA, 1.18 K:BB, 1.48 WHIP

The coveted #1 spot in this prestigious rotation goes to Richmond Ram SP Nick Cortes, a big righty with three plus pitches. The Washington Bats farmhand is currently 7-3 with a 2.53 ERA in 14 AAA starts. Cortes would likely go up against lefthanded Denver holdover and Bowling Green, KY native Troy Clark, also 5-5-5 from my scout and 5-5-4 from OSA. Clark has been replacement level at best in the BLB, with a career 17-39 record, although his best seasons have come recently, posting a career low WHIP of 1.47 in '99 to go with a 4.73 ERA. Clark did put up similar numbers to Cortes in AAA ball, including a 17 start 1997 season where he went 9-3 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. In the end, Cortes has an overall better minor league resume IMO, while Clark has the experience.

THE VERDICT: SLIGHT EDGE FOR CLARK



vs
LEO FERNANDEZ (AAA-PHI) VS ERNIE BRUMMETT

FERNANDEZ MLE: 4.16 ERA, 1.32 k:BB, 4.30 FIP, 1.57 WHIP
BRUMMETT 2000: 4.74 ERA, 1.99 K:BB, 1.53 WHIP

Second spot in the rotation goes to the aforementioned Leo Fernandez, a 5-5-5 OSA potential lefty that's currently 6-3 with a 3.53 ERA in AAA Trenton. 53% GB, can go deep in games with a 6 stamina, with three decent pitches. Fernandez would likely see BLB retread Ernie Brummett, an 8 year BLB vet who throws smoke and gives up a ton of HRs. Fernandez comes in at 5-5-4 OSA, 4-5-4 from my scout, while Brummett comes back with 6-4-5 from both agencies, and a stellar AAA career over 5 seasons with better career numbers than Fernandez has put up in a small sample size. Brummett may have lost a step or two, and we like that Fernandez is still a developing lefty who can keep the ball on the ground a little better than Brummett, but this one is more clear.

THE VERDICT: BRUMMETT

vs
ARTIE WATERS (AA-CAL) VS PAT BROWN

ARTIE WATERS MLE: 3.17 ERA, 1.5 K:BB, 4.37 ERA, 1.58 WHIP
PAT BROWN 2000: 5.00 ERA, 0.77 K:BB, 1.94 WHIP

Things get hairy in the #3 spot - the last SP role in our WBC style roster. Zack Amaral, a Virginia product currently in AA, has the stuff and the talent to grab the spot, but currently has yet to develop any control with a 2 from my scout and from OSA. Davenport's Alex Aguirre could also handle the spot and is currently rated 5-4-4 in AAA, but we like the change of pace knuckleballer Artie Waters brings to the table. A two pitch starter in AA, Waters reminds some of R.A. Dickey, a masterful knuckleballer (8 rating) who can hit the 90's on the radar (Waters 94-96, although he does not throw a fastball, only the knuckler and a curve). He opposes Denver SP Pat Brown, a second year vet who was forced into BLB action straight from AA last year with Pawtucket and has struggled ever since. Grades out at 5-6-3 from my scout and 6-6-3 from OSA at the time being with 6-6-4 potential, but we like the change of pace Waters brings in a knuckleball-void BLB world along with his MLEs. Waters probably doesn't belong in the BLB - ever - but with the numbers he's putting up right now, neither does Brown.

THE VERDICT: PUSH

Next up... the Tale of the Tape: Bullpen.

[umd]

You should write a book.

[Jake]

The Tale of the Tape: DelPrez vs Denver Bullpens

vs
MR: Tommy Robbins (AA-PHI) VS CURT STEWART

TOMMY ROBBINS MLE: 3.84 ERA, 4.55 FIP, 1.93 WHIP
CURT STEWART 2000: 5.74 ERA, 1.80 WHIP

Robbins gets the first mention in the pen by default as the only true MR listed on D's monthly recaps. Robbins, currently at 4-6-3 from my scout, boasts 5-6-5 potential and sports a 2.03 ERA in his first AA season. Stewart clearly has the edge ratings wise, tipping the scales at 7-5-5 from my scout and 8-5-6 from OSA. However, Stewart's 2000 numbers leave a lot to be desired, especially against Robbins' MLE stats, and may show a decline despite a lower FIP this year than his early BLB career. Robbins certainly has a higher upside but in the short term, Stewart is the choice.

THE VERDICT: STEWART



vs
ALEX AGUIRRE (AAA-DAV) VS ITARU MIYAUCHI

AGUIRRE MLE: 5.04 ERA, 4.93 FIP, 1.70 WHIP
MIYAUCHI 2000: 4.46 ERA, 1.59 WHIP

Aguirre is a fairly developed lefty who hits 96 on the gun and is currently rated 544 from my scout, with 545 potential from him and OSA both. Nearly the third starter, instead he probably is the first man out of the pen in long relief if the starters falter, which they probably will. Denver has the luxury of another ratings darling out of the pen in Miyauchi, also 8-5-6 from OSA but also underachieving in 2000 after an impressive 1999 with a 1.16 WHIP in 53.2 BLB innings. Clearly, Miyauchi is superior here.

THE VERDICT: MIYAUCHI BY A MILE

vs
ZACK AMARAL (AA-VIR) VS LANNY STEVENSON

AMARAL MLE: 3.53 ERA, 4.35 FIP, 1.67 WHIP
LANNY STEVENSON 2000: 4.07 ERA, 1.44 WHIP

The 7th and 8th innings may fall to our appointed setup man Amaral, who already has BLB level stuff and movement and could be very effective if he can find any sense of control in the dream series. One could only hope Denver's Ki-Hyong Lim would be off of waivers and on the active roster so these two could trade HBP secrets.

Stevenson is a seasoned BLB vet with a cannon for a right arm and incredible stuff and above average movement with an achilles heel in control over his career. 2000 has been on par with the rest of his career with a very consistent near 4 ERA. Another case of DelPrez's minor leaguer having more upside but falling short in the short term.

THE VERDICT: STEVENSON

vs
JERMAINE TAYLOR (AAA-DEN) VS TONY "VULTURE" PEREZ

JERMAINE TAYLOR MLE: 2.89 ERA, 2.44 FIP, 1.23 WHIP
TONY PEREZ 2000: 3.54 ERA, 1.54 WHIP

Et tu brute? Denver's very own prospect Jermaine Taylor is the final option out of the pen, a flame throwing righty with three plus pitches. Scouts believe Taylor would struggle with control at the BLB level at 6-3-4 potential and 5-3-4 currently, but we feel Taylor is better than that with only 17 walks issued in 55 AAA innings so far. Perez is a big money international FA recently acquired from California who is still trying to live up to the potential of his first BLB contract, but still rings in at 7-6-5 from my scout with 8-7-6 potential from OSA. Unfortunately for the rag tag group of late rounders, Perez rounds out the clean sweep in the bullpen for Denver

THE VERDICT: CLEARLY PEREZ

Final Pitching Notes: Staff for staff, the edge clearly lies with Denver. DelPrez may have the potential to hang in there at the top of the rotation, but if and when things go bad, there's not a lot in the pen to calm the situation.

Next up: Tale of the Tape- THE LINEUP

[Delandis]

I've heard that Carlos is spanish for Charlie.

As in Charlie Brown.

[Clay]

This has 99 layers of awesome...but the one shitty top layer...I think Denver is going to win.

[Jake]

This has 99 layers of awesome...but the one shitty top layer...I think Denver is going to win.

The lineups may even things out a little.

[funclown]

Keep going Jake!

[Jake]

The Tale of the Tape: DelPrez vs Denver - The Infield

vs
1B: Louis-Gabriel Trahan (AA-BAT) VS Robby Shannon

LOUIS-GABRIEL TRAHAN MLE: .244/.297.336
ROBBY SHANNON: .186/.314/.294

With so many 1B to choose from, choosing which direction to go was tough. Do you pick the best hitter, the best fielding 1B, etc? We ended up going with the guy we thought could play no where else, British Columbia's own Louis-Gabriel Trahan. Trahan is rated a beastly '4' at 1B, but boasts only 2's and 3's for his infield and outfield ratings. A true train wreck in the field anywhere but 1B. Conversely, Trahan is an important piece of the lineup, currently 5-6-5-4-5 from OSA with 66656 potential. Trahan has been average in his first AAA season so far switching between AA and AAA. Shannon is clearly on the downside of his career, hitting .186 and playing even worse defense than Trahan. My scout still sees something there with current ratings of 5-4-5-6-4, but the stats clearly show at age 39 there's nothing left for this former star.

THE VERDICT: TRAHAN



vs
2B: GONG-SUN TSAI (AAA-SYR) vs TOMMY KEATTS

GONG-SUN TSAI MLE: .296/.348/.405 (.234/.286/.271 in 188 BLB AB's)
TOMMY KEATTS: .261/.313/.392

Gong-sun Tsai is a speedy utility guy who actually got a taste of the BLB earlier this year with the Syracuse Slammers. Tsai can play all three OF positions well, but excels on the right side of the infield, specifically rated 7 at 2B. Tsai is currently OPSing .884 in 251 AAA AB's this year, rated 55246 from OSA. Perhaps controversially, we feel Tsai's BLB stats were an aberration and we choose to look somewhere between his AAA MLE stats and BLB numbers instead. Keatts, in his second BLB year, is having a productive season with a .705 OPS - and rated 5-6-2-4-4 from OSA even 6-7-2-4-4 from my scout - but does not have the speed or defense that Tsai possesses. To break the tie, I went to the scout's description: "average hitter if he plays to form" for Tsai and "raw potential but doesn't do much with it" for Keatts.

THE VERDICT: SLIGHT EDGE TSAI

vs
SS: GORO MORINAGA (AAA-PAW) vs KIFLE AL-SADAT

GORO MORINAGA MLE: .244/.310/.347
KIFLE AL-SADAT 2000: .194/.262/.237

Goro Morinaga gets the nod at short, an above average fielding SS who can also play 2B or 3B. Marinaga just got called up to AAA, but previously sported a .814 OPS in 378 AA AB's. Marinaga has wheels for days with an 8 for speed, but will be held to a little more cautious level on the basepaths after being caught stealing 15 times this season. Sadat is back in Denver where he has spent much of his career, but at 35 and despite his seemingly constant 55355 ratings, is only OPSing .499 over his first 101 PA in Denver this year after taking over for Ian Kluever who might be even worse.

Key Quote: "Sadat is so old, his Player Id is only three digits."

THE VERDICT: SURPRISINGLY MORINAGA

vs
3B: DANNY FLORES (AA-LOS) vs HARRIS VREKE

DANNY FLORES MLE: .261 .302 .332
HARRIS VREKE: .234/.344/.403

Danny Flores gets the nod by default at 3B, where he is rated 5 with a cannon of an arm for the AA Mohave Dust Devils. Flores has incredible OSA potential at 77645 and currently rated at 55434, and is hitting .313 this year in his first full AA season. Vreke is a converted OF who is even worse in the field than Flores at 3B - a 3 rating - but has put up nice stats in 2000 with a .852 OPS in AAA and .747 in the BLB over 77 ABs to go along with plus speed. Rated by my scout at 5-5-3-2-4 and only 4-4-2-2-4 from OSA, I question those numbers and when you look at the full picture - including stats from '99 and earlier and Vreke playing out of position - Flores gets the nod.

THE VERDICT: FLORES

Next up: Tale of the Tape- Rounding Out the Lineup

[Pat]

I think my Triple-A team would beat both.

[Jake]

I think my Triple-A team would beat both.

I hope so. This team is literally half full of AA guys.

And DelPrez's team is too.

[Jake]

The Tale of the Tape: DelPrez vs Denver - The OF, C, and Bench

vs
LF: DAVE MILLER (AAA-WAS) VS SETH FUNK


DAVE MILLER MLE: .267/.343/.376
SETH FUNK 2000: .203/.265/.339

Dave Miller, the Richmond Rams teammate of #1 starter Nick Cortes, is listed as a 1B but truly has no business being anywhere near the infield dirt. Rated 2 on all infield fielding ratings, Miller is a healthy 5 rating in LF with average arm, range, and overall fielding prowess. Miller also shows plus speed to go along with great potential from OSA at 67565, currently 57455. In his first AAA season, Miller is doing well to a tune of a .848 OPS and a 31.4 VORP. I did not know Seth Funk even existed before I typed this, but Funk does show some potential from my scout at 5-6-5-5-4 and 5-6-6-6-4 from OSA. He's not there yet however, with a 4 for contact and a paltry -13.1 VORP in 2000.

THE VERDICT: MILLER



vs
CF: JERRY DEL VALLE (AA-IND) vs JARROD PARKER

JERRY DEL VALLE MLE: .260/.280/.321
JARROD PARKER 2000: .237/.292/.474

Del Valle's true value lies in the field, where he can play all three OF positions at a respectable level. Rated only 5-6-2-4-6 from OSA in potential, DV has put up nice
numbers in the low minors possibly due to playing below his true competition level. In 159 AA AB's this season, DV has put up a .795 OPS to go with 11 SBs in 15 attempts. Up against Del Valle is Denver starting CF Jarrod Parker, who is enjoying more success over his first 100 BLB AB's than he ever did in AAA, maxing out at a career high .658 OPS between his three AAA seasons. Parker isn't a train wreck in the field and shows some sort of extra base power.

THE VERDICT: SOMEHOW, PARKER

vs
RF: ALEX CABRERA (AAA-VIR) vs RICKY CRUZ

ALEX CABRERA MLE: .212/.260/.361
RICKY CRUZ 2000: .137/.145/.178 (Yes, you read that right.)

For the sake of this article, we'll ignore the fact that Cabrera is a Virginia prospect so he's destined for greatness. For the moment, he's merely a 5-6-6-3-3 AAA OF who showed flashes in AAA but has been average at best since moving to AAA. Cabrera does show value in the field, especially at RF, and my scout sees him as a journeyman, perhaps a 5th OF. More good news for Cabrera comes in the fact that he goes up against 28 year old Ricky Cruz, an unbelievable scrub who somehow is better than Kel Brown. Getting the majority of his at bats in A ball as recently as last year, Cruz has OPSed .323 in 73 BLB AB's this year. He does play a nice corner OF however, and he is rated 55324 from my scout. Cabrera has a brighter future but Cruz' fielding ability and ratings give him some sort of value. Only in Denver.

THE VERDICT: PUSH

vs
C: WALLY YATES (FA) vs TRAVIS CESARE

YATES 1999: .225/.302/.406
CESARE 2000: .280/.347/.439

I won't go into detail on Yates as he is really a replacement player on this squad, but he's average defensively and below average offensively. At 37, a spot on DelPrez's Monthly Minor Leaguers might be the only job Yates can get. Denver counters with 27 year old organizational veteran Travis Cesare, who's actually put together something that resembles a professional season in 2000 despite playing in Denver. OSA has Cesare at 4-4-4-4-4, but my scout gives him a nod at 5-4-4-5-5 potential and Cesare has leaned that way with a .787 OPS in 214 BLB AB's this year.

THE VERDICT: FIRMLY CESARE

vs
BENCH: 1B JOEY BAILEY (AAA-MOR) vs OF KEL BROWN


JOEY BAILEY MLE: .234/.291/.362
BROWN 2000: .208/.274/.340

Poor Joey Bailey. He can't even start on a team full of late round picks. But... he can get a moral victory against Kel Brown. Clearly the choice for a one man bench in Denver is former starting shortstop Ian Kluever, but I had to fit Brown in somehow. Bailey does nothing well in the field outside of playing first base, but showed an ability to make things happen at the plate over his last two AA seasons, OPSing .826 and .813 in a combined 675 ABs. Bailey has also shown power, including 22 HRs combined in 2000. Kel Brown is the worst contract in the BLB, but he can play the field.

THE VERDICT: PUSH

[Jake]

To sum it up: Denver has the edge in the battery, and the Overachievers have the edge nearly everywhere else. Obviously I think Denver wins, but, my heart hopes to see a series. My prediction: Denver in a very close 6 games.

[Carlos]

I will read this tomorrow. But I am impressed. And my mind is officially blown that you took this much time to analyze my team of misfits.


Sent from my mobile device.

[Carlos]

To sum it up: Denver has the edge in the battery, and the Overachievers have the edge nearly everywhere else. Obviously I think Denver wins, but, my heart hopes to see a series. My prediction: Denver in a very close 6 games.

Reading this write up makes me remember how disappointed I am with my pen. Every guy isn't pitching to his ratings/potentials. Just dreadful.

But our lineup is ugly. Like disgusting bad. I'm almost sure you could pick a AA lineup that is better than Denver's.

And this is why I started trading guys away. I realized the only pieces this lineup would have are Hector Gonzalez at catcher instead of Cesare (and that's a push right now), Rex Morgan at 1B over Shannon (clear victory for Morgan), Cy Gray at short over Al-Sadat/Ian Kluever (push? Gray has only just started hitting well with Windy City).

So basically, our offense would have had Rex Morgan. When I saw that going into Free Agency, I knew I needed to start over even if it made little sense bc we weren't playing for our own first round pick. Better to have the prospects to develop.

This team is awful.


Sent from my mobile device.