BLB - Talk About It... (HR/Hit Club)

[Clay]

Trying some discussion threads...

This week Everardo Gremades joined Harry Keppel in the 3000 hit club. In the next few weeks, the BLB should welcome Mel Woodbury as the 1st Member of the 500 HR Club and should be joined at some point by Keppel.

Along with 300 Wins, these "clubs" are considered the elite status in MLB.

In the BLB, 300 wins may never be achieved.

So, of "3000 Hits" and "500 HRs" - which will be the BLB's more exclusive club?

[BradZ]

I'd say the 500 HR club will be more exclusive. It just seems we always see more "great" young contact hitters come along as opposed to "great" young power hitters. With that being said, I do think it depends on how future versions of OOTP generate players. It does seem we're seeing more young power hitters with this most recent version as opposed to the older versions in past years. No scientific evidence, just pure "eyeball" test.

[Delandis]

Again with no evidence, I'd have to go with 3000 hits. It seems like there are a lot of power hitters that will be able to put up monster HR numbers for the first 10-12 years of their careers, which will allow them to "nickel and dime" their way to 500 in their twilight years. The contact hitters NORMALLY see decline around in their early and mid 30's and then injuries set in to hurt their chances for getting to 3000 hits.

Health and consistency are a concern for both sets, but I'd have to say they have a larger impact on the chance to get to 3000 hits.

[Clay]

I'd say the 500 HR club will be more exclusive. It just seems we always see more "great" young contact hitters come along as opposed to "great" young power hitters. With that being said, I do think it depends on how future versions of OOTP generate players. It does seem we're seeing more young power hitters with this most recent version as opposed to the older versions in past years. No scientific evidence, just pure "eyeball" test.

I think I agree with you here.
I think Keppel may be the only one ever in both clubs. I don't think Woodbury makes 3000.

I think Alvarez is the next near sure thing 500, but he likely doesn't hit 3000 either.

[Clay]

Again with no evidence, I'd have to go with 3000 hits. It seems like there are a lot of power hitters that will be able to put up monster HR numbers for the first 10-12 years of their careers, which will allow them to "nickel and dime" their way to 500 in their twilight years. The contact hitters NORMALLY see decline around in their early and mid 30's and then injuries set in to hurt their chances for getting to 3000 hits.

Health and consistency are a concern for both sets, but I'd have to say they have a larger impact on the chance to get to 3000 hits.

Another great point... I think the great unknown right now is will the guys "born" after our first major adjustment (around the 80-82 draft) have the same longevity.

[funclown]

Another great point... I think the great unknown right now is will the guys "born" after our first major adjustment (around the 80-82 draft) have the same longevity.

Major adjustment or just a new version of OOTP?

[Clay]

Major adjustment or just a new version of OOTP?

Well, if you look at the stats from the early days, there was a significant adjustment to gameplay around '80. '82 brought the 16 year old draft. Down the line came feeders.

The guys from 82 are still a study. I drafted Maeda at 16. He's now 30 and entering his prime, but dude has a lot of miles on the odometer for a 30 year old. Will he play till 40?

Feeder league guys from HS that are 20-22 before they're even AA worthy... Will they play deep into their 30's?

Just saying a ton of unknowns on longevity.

[funclown]

Well, if you look at the stats from the early days, there was a significant adjustment to gameplay around '80. '82 brought the 16 year old draft. Down the line came feeders.

The guys from 82 are still a study. I drafted Maeda at 16. He's now 30 and entering his prime, but dude has a lot of miles on the odometer for a 30 year old. Will he play till 40?

Feeder league guys from HS that are 20-22 before they're even AA worthy... Will they play deep into their 30's?

Just saying a ton of unknowns on longevity.

Been asking myself the same question about 3B Vctor 'Slider' Gonzlez. Keep forgetting he is only 31, but has been at the majors now since he was 19.

[Lintyfresh85]

Is Noah George HOF worthy if he reaches 3,000 hits but only makes one All-Star squad?

[BradZ]

500 HR's is just such a metric shit-ton of HR's in this universe. Look at Dani Alvarez for example. He's played 12+ years at an elite level and is now 35. He's hit 40+ HR 3 times in his career (there's only been 19 total times that mark has been reached in league history). He's still 68 HR's away from reaching the mark. It's all but a certainty that he gets there, but it's going to take a guy like him 14+ seasons to get there. So basically I'm saying, one of the best, most consistent power threats in league history is going to finally eclipse 500 HR's after 14+ seasons of prime baseball. He'll be 37ish when he does it and have one foot out the door to retirement. 500 is hard to do 35 HR's at a time.

[Clay]

Is Noah George HOF worthy if he reaches 3,000 hits but only makes one All-Star squad?

If voting history holds, I'd think so.

I think were learning that the guys who haven't been around since the early, early days can/will only look at stats.

George, to me, is likely a NO. He was a very good player for a short time, a good player for awhile, and a BLB player for a super long time. Not sure he has the resume.

[Clay]

500 HR's is just such a metric shit-ton of HR's in this universe. Look at Dani Alvarez for example. He's played 12+ years at an elite level and is now 35. He's hit 40+ HR 3 times in his career (there's only been 19 total times that mark has been reached in league history). He's still 68 HR's away from reaching the mark. It's all but a certainty that he gets there, but it's going to take a guy like him 14+ seasons to get there. So basically I'm saying, one of the best, most consistent power threats in league history is going to finally eclipse 500 HR's after 14+ seasons of prime baseball. He'll be 37ish when he does it and have one foot out the door to retirement. 500 is hard to do 35 HR's at a time.

Who reached 500 at the youngest age in MLB? How many seasons to get there?

[BradZ]

Who reached 500 at the youngest age in MLB? How many seasons to get there?

By age:

1. Jimmie Foxx 1940 32 years, 337 days
2. Willie Mays 1965 34 years, 130 days
3. Sammy Sosa 2003 34 years, 143 days
4. Hank Aaron 1968 34 years, 159 days
5. Babe Ruth 1929 34 years, 186 days

By ABs:

1. Mark McGwire 1999 5,487
2. Babe Ruth 1929 5,801
3. Harmon Killebrew 1971 6,671
4. Sammy Sosa 2003 7,036
5. Jimmie Foxx 1940 7,084

[Clay]

So 35 isn't nuts, its a little behind off the charts HOFs.

[BradZ]

My list is a bit dated apparently. Alex Rodriguez belongs at the top of the list by age since he was 32 yrs, 8 days old when he hit #500.