SIM COMPLETE - Regular Season 10

[Clay]

Obviously we're talking about code here versus real live human beings here... so... my question... even in the old version, have we ever seen a player have an above average to great season at the age of 38 or older?

That wouldn't excuse "the wall" factor... but my curiosity is whether it has more to do with age and whether it has been in versions prior to '07... or if it's '07.

[Andrew]

In OOTP, yes I think it's reasonable. It's not like we haven't seen it before (http://ootp.oldredboat.com/news/html...layer_125.html ).

It might suck, but we're all in the same boat, so what can ya do?

I'd have to disagree. Kuramochi had one good season while Kellum racked up three of the best seasons this league has seen. If Kuramochi had strung together a few of those seasons then you may have an argument. Otherwise, his single year performance is just as fluky as Kellum's sudden drop-off.

I agree that it is a small body of work but I agree with Skerik's Barry Bonds analogy (Giambi not so much and not even Ted Williams - who had a neck injury in '59 and returned to hit .300 in '60).

It's pretty amazing stuff to see one of the best players fall completely off the table and I can't think of a comparable example.

You're thinking of this too logically. We're dealing with simple math here. When the ratings drop, the stats drop with them. Kellum's ratings fell off the same as Kuramochi's, which resulted in a sharp decline.

With Kuramochi's ratings in 78, if you looked at his theoretical 75, 76, 77 seasons they would all be Cy Young caliber.

[Andrew]

Obviously we're talking about code here versus real live human beings here... so... my question... even in the old version, have we ever seen a player have an above average to great season at the age of 38 or older?

That wouldn't excuse "the wall" factor... but my curiosity is whether it has more to do with age and whether it has been in versions prior to '07... or if it's '07.

I think it's a combination. There's no doubt something changed between 06 in 07 in terms of translating ratings into stats. However, in Kellum's case I think it's more age and injuries catching up to him(injuries being a factor that have been increased with 07).

We've seen players drop off sharply at that age before and we'll most likely see it again.

[Z]

Only one off the top of my head is Giambi. Sure he had the steroid thing or pituitary or whatever but this is pretty drastic:

Jason Giambi:

2000 29 OAK 333 .476 .647
2001 30 OAK 342 .477 .660
2002 31 NYY .314 .435 .598
2003 32 NYY .250 .412 .527
2004 33 NYY .208 .342 .379

On the way home I'll see if i can remember anyone else.

Edit:

Ted Williams also comes to mind when he got older:
1957 .388/.526/.731
1958 .328/.458/.584
1959 .254/.372/.419

How about Mark McGwire?

1998 .299 .470 .752
1999 .278 .424 .697
2000 .305 .483 .746
2001 .187 .316 .492

[Squint]

You're thinking of this too logically. We're dealing with simple math here. When the ratings drop, the stats drop with them. Kellum's ratings fell off the same as Kuramochi's, which resulted in a sharp decline.

That's just it though, we aren't dealing with simple math....at least we shouldn't be. I would hope a game this comprehensive would code for a less drastic decline considering we can't come up with a real life comparison. (I'll discount McGwire because, while he was a terrific HR hitter, he never showed the all around talent Kellum did and the obvious steroid involvement).

I would expect a sudden drop-off from a player of John Brabant's caliber, but not the likes of the Kellum's of the league.

Again, this could all be a moot point if Kellum pulls out of it or at least brings his numbers up to a respectable level by the end of the year.

With Kuramochi's ratings in 78, if you looked at his theoretical 75, 76, 77 seasons they would all be Cy Young caliber.

One would hope that would be the case, but we can never know.

[Andrew]

I think one important thing that we might be overlooking is the rust factor in 2007. Kellum only had 2 PA's in Spring Training before getting hurt for 3 months, so it's likely that is contributing to his struggles.

I still think he's had a significant drop in talent, but he should still be a middle of the road BLB player according to my scouts.

[Z]

You're thinking of this too logically. We're dealing with simple math here. When the ratings drop, the stats drop with them. Kellum's ratings fell off the same as Kuramochi's, which resulted in a sharp decline.

That's just it though, we aren't dealing with simple math....at least we shouldn't be. I would hope a game this comprehensive would code for a less drastic decline considering we can't come up with a real life comparison. (I'll discount McGwire because, while he was a terrific HR hitter, he never showed the all around talent Kellum did and the obvious steroid involvement).

I would expect a sudden drop-off from a player of John Brabant's caliber, but not the likes of the Kellum's of the league.

Again, this could all be a moot point if Kellum pulls out of it or at least brings his numbers up to a respectable level by the end of the year.

With Kuramochi's ratings in 78, if you looked at his theoretical 75, 76, 77 seasons they would all be Cy Young caliber.

One would hope that would be the case, but we can never know.

Dale Murphy

[Jim]

Obviously we're talking about code here versus real live human beings here... so... my question... even in the old version, have we ever seen a player have an above average to great season at the age of 38 or older?

That wouldn't excuse "the wall" factor... but my curiosity is whether it has more to do with age and whether it has been in versions prior to '07... or if it's '07.

John Brabant is so far this year.

[Squint]

Dale Murphy

Murphy's averages fell 30-40 points off his lifetime averages, not 150-200 points.

[Z]

Dale Murphy

Murphy's averages fell 30-40 points off his lifetime averages, not 150-200 points.

Murphy's line was .154/.200/.231 over his last 2 seasons, which consisted of 104 at-bats. Not that Kellum has played in exactly 16 games (59 at-bats) this season.

No, he's not an exact match for Kellum by any means, but a big dropoff even for a great player isn't completely unprecedented, nor do I think that you can put much stock in performance over 16 games.

[Riverman]

Maybe he has Lou Gehrig's disease.

[rubisco43]

good lord :cry:

[robster1225]

The JAvelinas shaved .5 game off of the Denver lead, and now sit in 2nd place. These Javelinas are starting to resemble the 2007 New York Yankees. I hope that's a good sign...

[mahoney2]

Half this thread is about a guy with 59 at bats coming off a hernia that side lined him 2-3 months 2.5 months ago and is 38 years old?

[BradleyB]

Half this thread is about a guy with 59 at bats coming off a hernia that side lined him 2-3 months 2.5 months ago and is 38 years old?

correction. a fictional guy. :D